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Replacement policy of residential lighting optimized for cost, energy, and greenhouse gas emissions

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Replacement policy of residential lighting optimized for cost, energy, and greenhouse gas emissions
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Accounting for 10% of the electricity consumption in the US, artificial lighting represents one of the easiest ways to cut household energy bills and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by upgrading to energy-efficient technologies such as compact fluorescent lamps (CFL) and light emitting diodes (LED). However, given the high initial cost and rapidly improving trajectory of solid-state lighting today, estimating the right time to switch over to LEDs from a cost, primary energy, and GHG emissions perspective is not a straightforward problem. This is an optimal replacement problem that depends on many determinants, including how often the lamp is used, the state of the initial lamp, and the trajectories of lighting technology and of electricity generation. In this paper, multiple replacement scenarios of a 60 watt-equivalent A19 lamp are analyzed and for each scenario, a few replacement policies are recommended. For example, at an average use of 3 hr day−1 (US average), it may be optimal both economically and energetically to delay the adoption of LEDs until 2020 with the use of CFLs, whereas purchasing LEDs today may be optimal in terms of GHG emissions. In contrast, incandescent and halogen lamps should be replaced immediately. Based on expected LED improvement, upgrading LED lamps before the end of their rated lifetime may provide cost and environmental savings over time by taking advantage of the higher energy efficiency of newer models.
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Transcript: English(auto-generated)
In the U.S., lighting accounted for 280 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity use, or roughly 10% of the total consumption in 2015. Lighting upgrades are an easy way to cut energy use and, therefore, energy cost and
greenhouse gas emissions. Upgrading the lighting infrastructure of the U.S. to LEDs in 2015 would have cut the annual energy use by half, or up to $49 billion in electricity costs. However, the high cost of solid-state lighting has slowed the transition.
Many studies have used simple payback and other life-cycle accounting methods to demonstrate the cost competitiveness and environmental benefits of LEDs, despite the high initial cost. However, since these studies do not consider the timing of replacement, they cannot determine
whether a greater saving can be achieved from replacing an energy-inefficient lamp today, or from waiting for the LED lamp to achieve a lower cost or a higher efficacy. The goal of this study is, therefore, to determine the optimal transition time to LEDs and provide specific replacement strategies for residential lighting.
We developed an optimal replacement model for a 60-watt equivalent light bulb, a common life-cycle accounting method with optimization techniques. This model considers various scenarios and conditions, including what type of lamp is currently in use, how the lamp technologies change, and how the electric grid decarbonizes.
The study finds that all incandescents in halogen lamps should be replaced immediately with CFLs or LEDs. No replacement is advised for existing CFLs and LEDs. LED adoption is optimal today in terms of emissions.
However, from an energy and cost perspective, LEDs should be adopted later with CFL use today because of improving efficacy and cost, which will provide greater life-cycle savings. Lamps with high usage rates should be replaced first and frequently because they benefit
the most from efficacy gain. Replacing a lamp before it burns out seems wasteful. But this study shows potential savings in cost, energy, and emissions by replacing the lamp earlier than its rated lifetime. This is because of the rapid improvements of efficacy and cost, suggesting that efficacy
improvements should be prioritized before durability in ongoing lighting research and development. The optimal replacement policy differs depending on the electric grid. For example, LEDs are adopted earlier and replaced more frequently in D.C., California, and Hawaii, where the electric rates are high.
Whereas from an emissions perspective, LED adoption is less urgent in California, where the carbon intensity of the grid is low. Informed buyers can use strategic replacement timing to maximize the economic, energy, and emissions benefits of lighting replacement. In general, replace all incandescents in halogen lamps immediately and hold onto existing CFLs
and LEDs for cost and energy savings. The model developed in this study can inform replacement strategies in other lighting sectors, including linear fixtures, high bay and low bay luminaires in commercial and industrial
indoor spaces, which together represents over 60% of the potential markets for LEDs.