Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?

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Title
Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?
Title of Series
Author
Reyer, Christopher P. O.
Bathgate, Stephen
Blennow, Kristina
Borges, Jose G.
Bugmann, Harald
Delzon, Sylvain
Faias, Sonia P.
Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi
Gardiner, Barry
Gonzalez-Olabarria, Jose Ramon
Gracia, Carlos
Guerra Hernández, Juan
Kellomäki, Seppo
Kramer, Koen
Lexer, Manfred J.
Lindner, Marcus
Maaten, Ernst van der
Maroschek, Michael
Muys, Bart
Nicoll, Bruce
License
CC Attribution 3.0 Unported:
You are free to use, adapt and copy, distribute and transmit the work or content in adapted or unchanged form for any legal purpose as long as the work is attributed to the author in the manner specified by the author or licensor.
Identifiers
Publisher
Institute of Physics (IOP)
Release Date
2017
Language
English

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Abstract
Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.
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many recent studies have shown that climate change is actually and affecting forest productivity and also disturbances regions in this study we
wanted to test how these 2 factors are actually interacting because we know the forest remains in a certain development stage depending on its productivity and in this development stage the forest is actually more or less susceptible to
specific disturbances now what we did we had the number of forest models in different regions in Europe driven or by the client by by by the same climatic scenario and we did the model simulations once with including climate change effects on productivity only and once was including climate change effects on productivity and changing disturbances the classified order models according to a conceptual framework which clearly points out whether it's a direct interaction between climate change and productivity so program climate change is an increase of
photosynthesis always there it's an indirect change for example because climate change leads to a change in species composition which then reduces or increases stood at overall forest productivity and we did the same for all possible interactions between climate change and disturbances so increasing wind speeds due to climate change are a direct effect whereas the longer the period where the Saudis not frozen which leads to higher wind wind disturbance susceptibility is an indirect effect what we found then is that actually and without considering disturbances to climate change signals on productivity follows what we know from other studies or increases in productivity and in-laws decreases of productivity in the south and or other mixed signal in Central Europe and when we apps disturbances into the simulations then the pattern remains mostly the same spot where productivity increases the productivity increases mostly reduced to climate change and where productivity is already declining because of climate change that decline as far as the excess of beta in some of the cases we also found very interesting injections for example in the Catalonian case study in the protease forest actually productivity increases because when fire disturbances are included because the tree density is reduced so there's a kind of city effect and also the as far as fertilization from the fire we also found very interesting the spatial and temporal patterns for example in the black forest region in Germany the strongest climate impacts that occurred in the middle of the 21st century when actually most of the forest was in the distance in this a step to the stage and when the climate change signal became stronger toward the end of the century already much of the damage that potentially could occur had more correct and over the forest has already moved to what's another species complete composition which was less susceptible to the damage now what can we do with these results so 1st of all we have to assess the model uncertainties and especially to climate change uncertainties by running the same model was more climate change scenarios and then we also have to improve too modest to actually account for more of injection said we outlined in our conceptual framework based on on on these improved models we could then also up scared to what's larger regions or even to the European or global level we can conclude from this study that 1st of all yes they did interaction between disturbances productivity and climate change matters and its increasing the productivity losses were a product of his already declining in its reducing productivity gains in those regions where productivity is actually increasing
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