Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on global hydropower production

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Video in TIB AV-Portal: Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on global hydropower production

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Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on global hydropower production
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CC Attribution 3.0 Unported:
You are free to use, adapt and copy, distribute and transmit the work or content in adapted or unchanged form for any legal purpose as long as the work is attributed to the author in the manner specified by the author or licensor.
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2017
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English

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Abstract
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly influences the global climate system, affecting hydrology in many of the world's river basins. This raises the prospect of ENSO-driven variability in global and regional hydroelectric power generation. Here we study these effects by generating time series of power production for 1593 hydropower dams, which collectively represent more than half of the world's existing installed hydropower capacity. The time series are generated by forcing a detailed dam model with monthly-resolution, 20th century inflows—the model includes plant specifications, storage dynamics and realistic operating schemes, and runs irrespectively of the dam construction year. More than one third of simulated dams exhibit statistically significant annual energy production anomalies in at least one of the two ENSO phases of El Niño and La Niña. For most dams, the variability of relative anomalies in power production tends to be less than that of the forcing inflows—a consequence of dam design specifications, namely maximum turbine release rate and reservoir storage, which allows inflows to accumulate for power generation in subsequent dry years. Production is affected most prominently in Northwest United States, South America, Central America, the Iberian Peninsula, Southeast Asia and Southeast Australia. When aggregated globally, positive and negative energy production anomalies effectively cancel each other out, resulting in a weak and statistically insignificant net global anomaly for both ENSO phases.

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global climate in this work researchers set out to determine what impact El Niño and learning you have RAM hydroelectric power generation to explore this question the researchers generated time series of power production for more than 1 thousand 500 hydropower dams worldwide representing more than 50 % of the world's installed hydropower capacity the results show that more than 1 3rd of the dance had statistically significant changes in energy production during at least 1 of the 2 phases of hints the research is
generated the time series of production dust by developing individual models of each of the
dance the models included the dam's design specifications and historical info dot derive from a global hydrological model each model also uniquely simulated the behavior of the operators at each hydropower dam as an optimal control problem the amount of water released was a function of the month of the year the storage level and the current flow each stand was simulated using inflows from the yet 1906 till 2000 the results were then compared against identified periods of nonlinear and linear as shown in this figure the researchers found statistically significant increases or decreases in hydropower production were the whole point seven percent of dams during only Europe and all I mean each circle is a
dam and those with black outline show where the change was significant this figure shows correlation between hydropower production and the Extended multi-period in so index a measure of the intensity of an and so event on 27 comma decimal 4 per cent of reservoirs showed a statistically significant correlation with this measure production was most affected in the Northwest United States of South America Central America and the Iberian peninsular Southeast Asia and Southeast Australia 1 interesting finding is that all free increases in production tended
to be canceled out by all of who decreases when averaged across the globe this was true for both interfaces another important finding was that many of the damn showed only a weak correlation between annual full of water and power generation with a noticeable lag this is the result of the dance design specifications and operating rules this finding means that in order to get an accurate picture of the impact on hydropower production read is essential to model the design and operation of the hydropower dams themselves
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