Cost-effectiveness of reducing emissions from tropical deforestation, 2016–2050


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Cost-effectiveness of reducing emissions from tropical deforestation, 2016–2050
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Busch, Jonah
Engelmann, Jens
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Institute of Physics (IOP)
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Reducing tropical deforestation is potentially a large-scale and low-cost strategy for mitigating climate change. Yet previous efforts to project the cost-effectiveness of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from future deforestation across the tropics were hampered by crude available data on historical forest loss. Here we use recently available satellite-based maps of annual forest loss between 2001–2012, along with information on topography, accessibility, protected status, potential agricultural revenue, and an observed inverted-U-shaped relationship between forest cover loss and forest cover, to project tropical deforestation from 2016–2050 under alternative policy scenarios and to construct new marginal abatement cost curves for reducing emissions from tropical deforestation. We project that without new forest conservation policies 289 million hectares of tropical forest will be cleared from 2016–2050, releasing 169 GtCO2. A carbon price of US20/tCO2 (50/tCO2) across tropical countries would avoid 41 GtCO2 (77 GtCO2) from 2016–2050. By comparison, we estimate that Brazil's restrictive policies in the Amazon between 2004–2012 successfully decoupled potential agricultural revenue from deforestation and reduced deforestation by 47% below what would have otherwise occurred, preventing the emission of 5.2 GtCO2. All tropical countries enacting restrictive anti-deforestation policies as effective as those in the Brazilian Amazon between 2004–2012 would avoid 58 GtCO2 from 2016–2050.
hello I'm John Bush the author along with the entanglement of the new paper in environmental research letters on the cost-effectiveness of reducing emissions from tropical deforestation in this video abstract I'd like to tell you why we conducted a study what we found and how we found it previous studies of the
cost-effectiveness of reducing emissions from tropical deforestation had to rely on all datasets which provide a just a single number per country as the national government self-reported every 5 years and which created a massive drop in deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon after 2004 we wanted to generate
new estimates taking advantage of a recently available high-resolution satellite based map showing how much force was lost everywhere every year between 2001 and 2012 we started by building a statistical model of how much faster deforestation happened in places that were lower flatter close to the city's outside protected areas better for agriculture or had intermediate levels of forest cover next we use their statistical model to reject where and how much tropical
deforestation is likely to occur in the future if national policies do not change and agricultural prices remain relatively stable then we projected how much lower deforestation emissions would be if tropical governments imposed a price on carbon you right taxing emissions or by paying for emission reductions we also projected how much lower deforestation emissions would be if tropical governments enacted restrictive land use policies like those Brazil used to reduce Amazon deforestation which included new protected areas and indigenous territories and law-enforcement backed by satellite monitoring so what should we find
Let's start with the bad news without new forest conservation policies we projects than area of tropical forest about the size of India will be lost between 2016 and 2050 that amount of deforestation would burn through about one-sixth of the so-called carbon budget the maintains a 2 thirds chance of global temperatures rising by less than 2 degrees Celsius now for the good news these emissions from tropical deforestation could be reduced relatively cheaply we
estimated a 20 dollar carbon price would reduce emissions by 24 per cent all 50 dollar carbon price would reduce emissions by 46 per cent restrictive land use policies that would reduce emissions by 34 per cent Our cost curves of toward the
expensive and of what previous studies found but they still show reducing tropical deforestation to be a cost-effective way to reduce emissions relative to other sectors in other places so there you have it
in the absence of new forest conservation policies we reject tropical deforestation to remain a large and growing source of emissions but reducing properly forestation can be a cost-effective way to mitigate climate change either by applying a carbon price or by imposing restrictive land use policies


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