Committed emissions from existing and planned power plants and asset stranding required to meet the Paris Agreement
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Author | 0000-0001-7127-4832 (ORCID) 0000-0003-0467-7441 (ORCID) 0000-0001-8802-4207 (ORCID) 0000-0001-8846-9847 (ORCID) | |
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SpaceflightElectric power distributionFuse (electrical)Video
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PaperMeeting/Interview
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EmissionsvermögenPower (physics)SpaceflightMeeting/Interview
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Power stationEmissionsvermögenField-effect transistorPlant (control theory)GasFossil fuelCoalMeeting/Interview
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Fossil fuelCoalPlant (control theory)Meeting/Interview
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PaperPlant (control theory)Meeting/Interview
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Pickup truckPlant (control theory)EmissionsvermögenMeeting/Interview
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Hot workingPlant (control theory)Meeting/Interview
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Rolling-element bearingAlcohol proofMeeting/Interview
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Energy levelMeeting/Interview
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Stock (firearms)Power stationMeeting/Interview
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Power stationMeeting/Interview
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Power stationEmissionsvermögenPlant (control theory)Meeting/Interview
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Plant (control theory)EmissionsvermögenMeeting/Interview
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Shutdown (nuclear reactor)Energy levelPlant (control theory)Pickup truckMeeting/Interview
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Plant (control theory)Pickup truckEnergy levelTiefdruckgebietMeeting/Interview
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Stellar atmosphereMeeting/Interview
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Stellar atmosphereClimateMeeting/Interview
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Ground stationMeeting/Interview
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Fossil fuelPlant (control theory)Meeting/Interview
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Plant (control theory)Source (album)Meeting/Interview
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Transcript: English(auto-generated)
00:03
Hi, my name is Cameron Hepburn. I'm a professor of environmental economics here at the University of Oxford And I'm happy to tell you about this paper that's been led by Alex Pfeiffer here at Oxford about Committed emissions of the power sector so by committed emissions We mean the embodied emissions of all the fleet of power plants
00:21
So we already have installed around the world the coal plants and the gas plants the other fossil fuel plants And what we've done in this paper is to look at all of those plants How old they are, how long they're likely to run, what the utilization factors are likely to be and work out how many emissions we should anticipate from those plants and We expect around 300 billion tons of carbon dioxide
00:44
Now this turns out to be a problem because to achieve the Paris goals of limiting warming to less than well below two degrees of above pre-industrial levels We've got a budget of around 240 billion tons of co2 so with the existing stock of power plants
01:03
We're already 60 billion tons over the budget So that's not good, but even worse is coming down the pipeline We've got over seven trillion US dollars worth of potential spend on new power plants and if you add up the power plants that are already in planning or
01:21
pre-constructional financing around the world a lot of them in Asia and You look at the embodied emissions in those plants they would add another 270 billion tons of co2 to a budget that has already been exceeded That leaves us with a pretty difficult dilemma. Either we build those plants coming down the pipeline and we have to then
01:45
Shut down other plants to keep within the budget or run all the plants at lower utilization levels or put Carbon capture and storage at the back end of those plants, which is very expensive We'll come up with other clever ways to suck co2 out of the atmosphere which are untested and potentially expensive
02:02
Or we give up on the Paris climate goals. So In my view probably the cheapest thing to be doing the most economically efficient thing to be doing is not to be building Putting lots of money into assets that you're likely to have to scrap anyway And instead of allocating those trillions of dollars into fossil fuel investment plants allocate that money instead
02:24
into clean energy sources