Global sea-level contribution from Arctic land ice: 1971–2017

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Global sea-level contribution from Arctic land ice: 1971–2017
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The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP 2017) report identifies the Arctic as the largest regional source of land ice to global sea-level rise in the 2003–2014 period. Yet, this contextualization ignores the longer perspective from in situ records of glacier mass balance. Here, using 17 (>55 °N latitude) glacier and ice cap mass balance series in the 1971–2017 period, we develop a semi-empirical estimate of annual sea-level contribution from seven Arctic regions by scaling the in situ records to GRACE averages. We contend that our estimate represents the most accurate Arctic land ice mass balance assessment so far available before the 1992 start of satellite altimetry. We estimate the 1971–2017 eustatic sea-level contribution from land ice north of ~55 °N to be 23.0 ± 12.3 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE). In all regions, the cumulative sea-level rise curves exhibit an acceleration, starting especially after 1988. Greenland is the source of 46% of the Arctic sea-level rise contribution (10.6 ± 7.3 mm), followed by Alaska (5.7 ± 2.2 mm), Arctic Canada (3.2 ± 0.7 mm) and the Russian High Arctic (1.5 ± 0.4 mm). Our annual results exhibit co-variability over a 43 year overlap (1971–2013) with the alternative dataset of Marzeion et al (2015 Cryosphere 9 2399–404) (M15). However, we find a 1.36× lower sea-level contribution, in agreement with satellite gravimetry. The IPCC Fifth Assessment report identified constraining the pre-satellite era sea-level budget as a topic of low scientific understanding that we address and specify sea-level contributions coinciding with IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) 'present day' (2005–2015) and 'recent past' (1986–2005) reference periods. We assess an Arctic land ice loss of 8.3 mm SLE during the recent past and 12.4 mm SLE during the present day. The seven regional sea-level rise contribution time series of this study are available from

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global sea level contribution from Arctic land ice 1971 to
2017 this new study
reconstructs the year-to year changes in the amount of ice stored on land across the entire Arctic for a 47 year period Our
approach uses field measurements of the balance of snowfall accumulation
and surface melting and in our case
provide an annual measurment sequence
from 17 locations across the Arctic we make a simple yet
robust mathematical scaling of the observed to field data to
satellite gravity data from the Grace mission the total loss of ice from Arctic
glaciers ice caps in agreement ice sheet has averaged 447 gigatonnes of loss per year in the recent decade if
we divide the recent ice loss among the world's nearly a billion people each person would get 160 liters of water each and every day of the year the loss rate of particle and ice has
increased threefold since
1986 from nearly 5
thousand tons of water per 2nd during the
recent past to 14 thousand times per 2nd in the present day the present loss rate of
Arctic ice is equivalent with 200 times the flow of the thames river or
nearly that of the Mississippi river
Alaskan ice loss roughly constant since 1988 is mostly from increased surface melting despite marine terminating glacier retreat at places like the large Colombia Arctic Canada ice loss accelerated around 1986 increasing sharply until 2013 which had a positive mass balance and resulting drop in cumulative sea level contribution the increase in
canadian land ice loss like elsewhere around the Arctic is driven by
increased surface melting from warmer summers near the Arctic regions
arctic Russia solve art Iceland in Scandinavia they add up to about as much as that Arctic Canada and sea level contributions
taken together the sum of these regions produce 23 millimeters of little contribution since 1971 the acceleration begins really in the late 19 eighties when Arctic climate is shown to have shifted to a warming patter then from about the year 2000 on word roughly a linear sea contribution because the rates of ice loss on Greenland and in Arctic Canada have slowed down a bit because of persistent atmospheric circulation that has
brought cold air down the west side of Greenland at the same time that we've seen he waves in Europe we contend that
our regional land ice volume change estimates represent the most accurate available prior to the 1992 stock of satellite land ice height change monitoring we show that the sea level contribution from article and ice is
1 3rd of the global amount since 1992 making the Arctic the largest regional source of sea level
rise greenland alone the largest source represents half of the Arctic contribution sea level rise and
year-to year extremes and see little contributions from particle and ice are primarily attributable to persistent extremes in atmospheric circulation highlighting the atmosphere as a driver of regionally varying land ice changes in both space and time