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Deconstructing climate misinformation to identify reasoning errors

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Deconstructing climate misinformation to identify reasoning errors
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29
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CC Attribution 3.0 Unported:
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Misinformation can have significant societal consequences. For example, misinformation about climate change has confused the public and stalled support for mitigation policies. When people lack the expertise and skill to evaluate the science behind a claim, they typically rely on heuristics such as substituting judgment about something complex (i.e. climate science) with judgment about something simple (i.e. the character of people who speak about climate science) and are therefore vulnerable to misleading information. Inoculation theory offers one approach to effectively neutralize the influence of misinformation. Typically, inoculations convey resistance by providing people with information that counters misinformation. In contrast, we propose inoculating against misinformation by explaining the fallacious reasoning within misleading denialist claims. We offer a strategy based on critical thinking methods to analyse and detect poor reasoning within denialist claims. This strategy includes detailing argument structure, determining the truth of the premises, and checking for validity, hidden premises, or ambiguous language. Focusing on argument structure also facilitates the identification of reasoning fallacies by locating them in the reasoning process. Because this reason-based form of inoculation is based on general critical thinking methods, it offers the distinct advantage of being accessible to those who lack expertise in climate science. We applied this approach to 42 common denialist claims and find that they all demonstrate fallacious reasoning and fail to refute the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic global warming. This comprehensive deconstruction and refutation of the most common denialist claims about climate change is designed to act as a resource for communicators and educators who teach climate science and/or critical thinking.
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Transcript: English(auto-generated)
There's a new report out on climate change. I heard climate change naturally in the past, so what's happening now must be natural. Sorry to interrupt, but actually that argument is misinformation. Who are you? John Cook. I research how to stop misinformation.
Well, you're not doing a very good job. Fake news is everywhere. But what can you do about it? Well, the antidote to fake news is just a little bit of fake news and a dollop of explanation. What? We can inoculate people against misinformation by explaining the techniques used to distort the facts. In other words, explain the poor reasoning in bad arguments.
And who are you? Peter Ellerton. We've developed a strategy based on critical thinking methods to analyse denialist claims. And I bet you're going to explain it to us. If you insist. The first step in analysing a claim is to break up the argument into its starting assumptions or premises and its conclusion. For example, the argument you just mentioned has two premises.
The first one is that climate has changed naturally in the past. The second one is that the climate is changing now. And the conclusion is that current climate change is natural. What's wrong with that? Well, to find out, we first check if the argument is logically valid.
Does the conclusion follow from the premises? In this case, the answer is no. The argument commits the fallacy of non-sequitur. Just because the climate changed naturally in the past, doesn't mean it's changing naturally now. And that's it? I'm just getting started. If an argument's invalid, it's often because there's a hidden assumption.
In this case, a hidden third premise. If something wasn't a cause in the past, it can't be a cause now. Adding this premise makes the argument logically valid. So now the conclusion must be true? Not so fast. The next thing we have to do is check that the premises are true. In this case, the third premise is false.
It commits the single cause fallacy, ignoring there can be multiple factors that cause climate change. So now we're done? We're done. Although it's worth pointing out the advantage of using critical thinking to debunk misinformation. The computer's talking.
No, it's Dave. Where are you? I'm in the Alps. A simple way to expose bad logic is to apply a parallel argument and show just how ridiculous the argument really is. The past climate change argument is just like arguing that because people died of cancer in the past, cigarettes can't be the cause of any cancer now.
We took this critical thinking approach and applied it to the most common myths about climate change. Every myth we looked at had reasoning flaws. And we listen more in this paper published in Environmental Research Letters. If I take your paper, will you leave us alone? Sure.
Fine. This article argues against vaccination. Actually, that commits the fallacy of... Shut up! Cherry picking.