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Global impacts of the meat trade on in-stream organic river pollution: the importance of spatially distributed hydrological conditions

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Global impacts of the meat trade on in-stream organic river pollution: the importance of spatially distributed hydrological conditions
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Abstract
In many regions of the world, intensive livestock farming has become a significant source of organic river pollution. As the international meat trade is growing rapidly, the environmental impacts of meat production within one country can occur either domestically or internationally. The goal of this paper is to quantify the impacts of the international meat trade on global organic river pollution at multiple scales (national, regional and gridded). Using the biological oxygen demand (BOD) as an overall indicator of organic river pollution, we compute the spatially distributed organic pollution in global river networks with and without a meat trade, where the without-trade scenario assumes that meat imports are replaced by local production. Our analysis reveals a reduction in the livestock population and production of organic pollutants at the global scale as a result of the international meat trade. However, the actual environmental impact of trade, as quantified by in-stream BOD concentrations, is negative; i.e. we find a slight increase in polluted river segments. More importantly, our results show large spatial variability in local (grid-scale) impacts that do not correlate with local changes in BOD loading, which illustrates: (1) the significance of accounting for the spatial heterogeneity of hydrological processes along river networks, and (2) the limited value of looking at country-level or global averages when estimating the actual impacts of trade on the environment.
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Transkript: Englisch(automatisch erzeugt)
Population growth, urbanization and increasing income all lead to increased production of meat around the globe. This trend will continue for the coming decades. Intensive livestock farming has become a key provider of global meat products due to its hyperactivity and efficiency.
Intensive livestock farming also leads to negative impacts on the environment. Affluence from intensive farms are rich in organic pollutants that reduce river biodiversity and disrupt aquatic ecosystems through oxygen depletion. These polluting effluents also contain pathogens that threaten human health.
Meat trade plays an increasingly significant role in global food supply. Organic river pollution of meat production consumed within one country is produced either domestically or internationally. It is crucial to better understand and quantify effects of meat trade on organic river pollution. Overall impact of trade on the environment is considered beneficial if
moving production to exporting countries generates less pollution than domestic production. Environmental impacts and costs differ from place to place due to differences in farming practices, natural resources and climate. This complexity needs to be accounted for in any impact analysis. We quantified impacts of international meat trade on global river organic pollution at multiple scales.
We computed distributed organic pollution along the global river network with and without trade. The scenario without trade assumes that meat imports are replaced by local production. If, hypothetically, international meat trade stops, net importing regions such as Russia, Japan and
Hong Kong would experience net increases in organic productions to meet their domestic demands. For their bilateral trade partners such as the USA and Brazil, the opposite applies. Here we highlighted the special heterogeneity of potential impacts on river systems. Take the USA as an example. When trade is removed, potential increases in organic pollution would occur in the middle and western part of the
nations since they are home to intensive cattle farms and the US is a large importer of cattle meat. As a large exporter of chicken and pig meat, the central eastern part of the nation would experience a potential decrease of organic pollution threats. Pollutants are diluted once they enter the river network.
In the river, natural degradation by microorganisms need to be taken into account for evaluating risks humans face due to changes in trade. Our analysis reveals a reduction of livestock population and organic pollutant production at a global scale due to international meat trade. However, the actual environmental impact is negative as we find a slight increase in polluted river segments.
Potential increases of pollution do not always translate into real impact as is evident from rivers in eastern Australia, New Zealand and the Philippines. In these countries, river cleaning capacities are sufficiently high to avoid impact. The large spatial variability shows how important it is to take heterogeneity of hydrological processes along the river networks into account.
Looking only at country level or at global averages provides no insight in the actual impacts of trade on the environment.