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From Data to Decisions: Distributionally Robust Optimization is Optimal

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From Data to Decisions: Distributionally Robust Optimization is Optimal
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39
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CC Attribution - NonCommercial - NoDerivatives 4.0 International:
You are free to use, copy, distribute and transmit the work or content in unchanged form for any legal and non-commercial purpose as long as the work is attributed to the author in the manner specified by the author or licensor.
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Data-driven stochastic programming aims to find a procedure that transforms time series data to a near-optimal decision (a prescriptor) and to a prediction of this decision's expected cost under the unknown data-generating distribution (a predictor). We propose a meta-optimization problem to find the least conservative predictors and prescriptors subject to constraints on their out-of-sample disappointment. Leveraging tools from large deviations theory, we prove that the best predictor-prescriptor pair is obtained by solving a distributionally robust optimization problem.