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Global Prospects for Airborne Wind Onshore

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Global Prospects for Airborne Wind Onshore
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Utility and Project Developer Panel, 11:40-11:50, Wednesday, 16 October 2019
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44
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43
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CC Attribution 4.0 International:
You are free to use, adapt and copy, distribute and transmit the work or content in adapted or unchanged form for any legal purpose as long as the work is attributed to the author in the manner specified by the author or licensor.
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Production Year2020
Production PlaceBerlin, Germany
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Transcript: English(auto-generated)
So, hello everyone. So I'm Kieran Frost and today I'm going to be talking about the study which we did with KPS to assess the global potential for the cilantro airborne wind technologies. So just a brief background about us if you're not so familiar. So we're a strategic consultancy. We specialise in three main areas.
So economics, techno-economic modelling, financial modelling, this is what I specialise in myself. We also help businesses integrate into markets. So we help them come up with solutions, look who their competitors are, see entries into possibly new markets they haven't considered before.
And the third one is on actually technology. So helping things like funding advice, technology advice, these kind of things. So it's mainly offshore wind that we focus on but we also do a fair bit on onshore wind and I think we actually need to add a small airborne wind picture here because we've actually worked with quite a few companies in this room, including KPS.
So again, just highlighting our experience. So these are some of the companies we've worked with. I'm not going to go through them all and there might be some familiar names hiding in there. But it's really throughout the whole supply chain. So working with developers, with utilities,
with designers and policy makers and really all sorts of organisations. So airborne wind is mainly the developers we've been working with on kind of techno-economic issues and market entry. So just a bit of background to the study. So we were working with KPS, who I'm sure you're all very familiar with.
They're a world leading airborne wind company based in Glasgow. So our track record with them goes back to 2015 and we've been helping them out with techno-economic modelling, financial decisions and that kind of thing and then some more technical questions as well.
So really the purpose of this study was looking at the global pen shop. So obviously airborne wind is a huge prize out there. There's so many countries that we could deploy and we could go to. But actually from a cost perspective it's not always going to make sense. So some countries, some areas of the resource won't be so good.
And really the purpose of this study was to try and assess that resource to see where we expect the lowest cost areas to be globally. So it involved a GIS geospatial study. So I'm going to present some pretty maps in a bit. And some techno-economic analysis as well as part of that.
So really that's the rationale, just we're trying to find these locations where we think airborne wind could really contribute to our energy system and on a cost-effective scale with conventional sources. So our input, so we looked at three different conventional sources. We looked at onshore wind, solar PV and diesel.
So we assumed 500 kilowatts of solar usage to add a fair comparison of the airborne wind system we were looking at. And these maps just show the amount of data that we were using, so this geospatial data. So the onshore wind data I believe came from the DTU global wind atlas. So I'm sure a lot of you will be very familiar with that.
The irradiation data came from NASA's power database for example. And the thing to note is that these are global data sets. There's a lot of data out there, they're very widespread, very good data resolution which I'll go into in a few slides. So with these layers we derived costs and LCOE for these conventional systems.
And obviously airborne wind, if we want to break into the market, we're going to need to compete with these technologies on a cost basis. We're going to need to find areas where we're cheaper than these technologies and where we need to really push them. So effectively the metric we're using here is liberalised cost of energy. So I'm sure a lot of you are very familiar.
Essentially it's the total cost of the project divided by the total energy discounted and essentially it's the breakeven cost of the energy. So what price would the electricity price need to be at to cover all the costs. And this is the standard way to assess these technologies because we have data for conventional sources and we can provide like for like comparison.
So it's very common in the industry, it's the most common metric I would say. So what we've got here, this map is actually the cheapest alternative source. So as I mentioned we use these three different sources. At every single point in the world we calculated liberalised cost of energy.
So we calculated energy at every single point in the world and cost. So you see that to the south around the equator it's generally very low. So the green is low. And that's really due to the good solar resource. So in my next slide I'll show you that. And as we go up into the northern hemisphere actually the costs go up.
And remember that we're looking at very small systems. These are only 500 kilowatt systems for kind of small early niche markets. And these areas are more dominated by conventional ports. So I can show you that if we look at this one.
So we see where each source is cheapest. So actually I find it quite interesting that the diesel is actually kind of constrained mainly to the Middle East. Where obviously the petrol price is very low. Actually the rest of the world, the smaller early niche systems were really domestic. So that was very interesting. So really with these studies what we're trying to determine is actually what is the cost of air or wind over the globe and how does it compare.
So KPS provided us with some reference costs for a 500 kilowatt energy system. So what we did is we calculated that levelized cost of energy using GIS software. And this is that levelized cost of energy.
So it's been anonymized because it's obviously commercial sensitivity around it. But you notice that it correlates quite closely with the wind resource. So if we go back a couple of slides, you notice these big blue parts pointing in the top left around the equator again.
And actually it's correlating quite a lot with that. We see there's a lot of dark green in Europe and the northern hemisphere. Which indicates possibly early adopters of this kind of scale system. So then what we can do, we've got this levelized cost of energy, this global map.
And what we can do, we can actually compare the two. So this is actually the levelized cost of energy against that cheapest alternative. So the red are parts where the alternative technology is cheaper. So be it solar, be it diesel, be it wind.
Whereas the green is parts where the air or wind is actually cheaper. So we see that again in the south around the equator it's hard to compete with the solar. Very good solar resource. But actually in the northern hemisphere it's looking very promising. We see a lot of green around Europe, which is obviously where a lot of you guys are based. Which I found quite interesting.
So again really just a visual glance. It's very interesting to see where these markets might be cropping up and where these countries are cropping up. And I think, so BBG, we do a lot of work looking at these kind of geospatial GIS studies for conventional wind. And I haven't really seen many studies looking at airborne.
I thought it was an interesting exercise really to get a feel for where these markets might be. I think KPS found it very useful as well. So something we did, yeah apologies it's not so nicely formatted these maps. But we also looked at exclusion zones. So actually the other one is very hypothetical.
We're assuming that every point on the globe you can deploy the bus. In reality that's not the case. We might have exclusion zones due to their ports, due to being in populated areas, due to the actual land itself. So we've excluded quite extreme gradients. So basically what we show here is the black are the exclusion zones.
So we see that some regions are very blacked out. For example the Amazon rainforest is clearly not looking great. But there's a lot of green still and it's kind of hard to tell. So I pulled out a close up of the kind of northwest Europe.
And we see that actually it's very big data resolution. So you see these very small circles are actually airports. So you see there's a lot of green and actually it'd be very interesting for policymakers and developers to actually look at these regions in more detail. So just for a bit of fun, just kind of a bit last minute, I actually got a map of Glasgow and I plotted our exclusions on top of it.
So we see that the data resolution is really good. So you see we've got a 10 kilometre scale and I think it's one kilometre squares. And luckily for our analysis, Glasgow is largely excluded. So that's reassuring. There are the applause for the rest of the surrounding area, be it due to the slope or the land cover or other issues.
So I thought it was quite an interesting exercise to pull that out for a smaller area. And I think it really shows the power of this approach. We can zoom in on specific locations and really get a very good feel for where we can put these devices as well as the cost.
So just to summarise then, so I've talked about any study that we did with APS looking at these global markets and global potential. So what we found is looking at these maps actually, it's looking very promising. There was a lot of green on the map. The exclusions as well, to make it a more realistic study, removed some areas,
but actually there's still good potential and a lot of these are very subjective. And I think it's a bit of a grey area still. It's good for an indication. So yeah, I'll start to show you that actually, although we're looking a bit into the future with some of these costs and production estimates,
actually there is good potential here for the technology. And really, we were quite involved in by the results and study that really, you know, we should look more at these issues. So it's quite high level. We could really go down and go into the detail. So for example, this chart here, it was an extension to the study.
We actually pulled out the GIS statistics. So we pulled out the different levelised cost of energies for the different regions. And you can put them in bands so you can see exactly where the resource is in terms of costs. So it's kind of dominated by the high countries with large area, as you would expect.
But actually, you know, these are still, these are millions of kilometres squared. So there's a lot of area that we can exploit in this industry. So again, just shows the example of the kind of things that we can do with software. Yeah, so I think that's all I wanted to say. I hope you found it interesting and thanks for listening.