Sources of multi-decadal variability in Arctic sea ice extent

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Video in TIB AV-Portal: Sources of multi-decadal variability in Arctic sea ice extent

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Sources of multi-decadal variability in Arctic sea ice extent
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2012
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English

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Abstract
The observed dramatic decrease in September sea ice extent (SIE) has been widely discussed in the scientific literature. Though there is qualitative agreement between observations and ensemble members of the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3), it is concerning that the observed trend (1979–2010) is not captured by any ensemble member. The potential sources of this discrepancy include: observational uncertainty, physical model limitations and vigorous natural climate variability. The latter has received less attention and is difficult to assess using the relatively short observational sea ice records. In this study multi-centennial pre-industrial control simulations with five CMIP3 climate models are used to investigate the role that the Arctic oscillation (AO), the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) play in decadal sea ice variability. Further, we use the models to determine the impact that these sources of variability have had on SIE over both the era of satellite observation (1979–2010) and an extended observational record (1953–2010). There is little evidence of a relationship between the AO and SIE in the models. However, we find that both the AMO and AMOC indices are significantly correlated with SIE in all the models considered. Using sensitivity statistics derived from the models, assuming a linear relationship, we attribute 0.5–3.1%/decade of the 10.1%/decade decline in September SIE (1979–2010) to AMO driven variability.

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the article changing more rapidly than anywhere else on the planet due to climate change through 40 some reduction in sea ice extent in the summers since this since the 19 seventies and this but a lot of questions
about whether or not this is man-made global warming alright well there's some natural variability in this study we aim
to try separators 2 components out a little bit and try and understand what the sources of variability are and how much they've affected the the observations that we see in this work was conducted at the Japanese agency from marina science and technology with my collaborators and I've subsequently continued to work adding we investigated its 2
potential sources of variability in sea ice and 1 called the Arctic Oscillation which you UCI surrounded doesn't match effects sea-ice extent very much like the total amount of arts and we also investigate a novel called the mounting motorcade oscillation we found that both in the observations and in climate models we looked at is headquartered dramatic effects and over the course of the observations that we've had this this this 80 year oscillations been warming face new from cold
temperatures to warm temperatures we put a
figure on this we find that between 5 and 30 % of the decrease in the ice we've seen is due to the that's a fair amount to be attributed to natural causes on the other hand implies that 17-term 95 % of the changes are as a surgical by human-induced global change we can use a
condescending to improve their predictions of sea ice in the Arctic Basin further in the next summer and potentially for decades in the future this will help the scientific community you to really happen need to know about ice conditions in order to
figure out how the Arctic ecosystems can
respond to climate change also sources important for shipping companies in other
industries which quicken living in the Arctic
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