Bioenergy: how much can we expect for 2050?

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Bioenergy: how much can we expect for 2050?
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Estimates of global primary bioenergy potentials in the literature span almost three orders of magnitude. We narrow that range by discussing biophysical constraints on bioenergy potentials resulting from plant growth (NPP) and its current human use. In the last 30 years, terrestrial NPP was almost constant near 54 PgC yr−1, despite massive efforts to increase yields in agriculture and forestry. The global human appropriation of terrestrial plant production has doubled in the last century. We estimate the maximum physical potential of the world's total land area outside croplands, infrastructure, wilderness and denser forests to deliver bioenergy at approximately 190 EJ yr−1. These pasture lands, sparser woodlands, savannas and tundras are already used heavily for grazing and store abundant carbon; they would have to be entirely converted to bioenergy and intensive forage production to provide that amount of energy. Such a high level of bioenergy supply would roughly double the global human biomass harvest, with far-reaching effects on biodiversity, ecosystems and food supply. Identifying sustainable levels of bioenergy and finding ways to integrate bioenergy with food supply and ecological conservation goals remains a huge and pressing scientific challenge.

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hello my name is Bill Smith stop at the University of Montana and a lot the new perspective in I'll Energy Commission expect the 2015 I presenters work on behalf of Michael authors including me got the element hyper L record high prices for fossil fuels concerns over the conventional oil and natural gas production and the necessity reduce global greenhouse gas emissions motivated global interest in biomass succeed future energy source but how much biology Qingming what should we expect the Treasury persistence and the to deliver in the coming decades currently diametrically opposed views on biology's future prospects to deliver sustainable low greenhouse guarantee abound in scientific you need you with estimates of global primary energy potential published in the last 5 years spending almost 3 words of 90 the 30 1300 X jewels per year recently the IPCC special corner renewable energy reported a similarly wide range as did influential global energy sets reducing the range of variability associated with current estimates of bioenergy potential is a necessary precursor to effective incorporation of file energy in the global energy policy 1 crucial piece of information that can help to tackle this under the realistically can strangle biology potential is the current global annual growth of green plants on your slants term net primary production were in pp satellite measurements of NPP derived from the Wellness sensor suggest that global terrestrial pp has stayed near 53 comma decimal 6 that a grams of carbon per year was stunningly low year-to year variation in other words considerable global efforts to increase annual yields in agriculture and forestry through irrigation fertilization or forest management have not increased told by growth of the global scale in our perspective we argue and the he represents an upper envelope constraint on biology potential and we show that under optimistic assumptions regarding the fraction of the could be used for biology the by physical limit for primary biology's around 190 excideuil review this capacity estimate would entail cultivating all educated minds outside dense forests urban areas problems and the world's remaining wilderness areas that the highest conceivable exploitation it is important to note that this is not an estimate of the upper limit for sustainable bioenergy potential for instance if we consider just a few of the many sustainability issues that are highlighted in the recent literature such as low productivity land vulnerable dry
areas there is that risk tropical forest
encroachment in areas the rest of their
degradation we're left with only roughly
80 Akciju per year and even that might result in trade offs was food supply if not implemented well given by
certain strains of geeky is unlikely that biology to provide more than 250 x per year or roughly 20 to 30 per cent of global primary energy demand in 2015 but substantially below many published biology projections reaching session level supply would require the doubling of global biomass is less than 4 decades would result in massive increases in then pressure on land questions we therefore argue that any strategic planning or energy policy that includes an expectation for biology to deliver more than 250 execute per year is unrealistic and fails to reflect current by a physical growth conditions