Are global wind power resource estimates overstated?

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Video in TIB AV-Portal: Are global wind power resource estimates overstated?

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Are global wind power resource estimates overstated?
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2013
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English

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Estimates of the global wind power resource over land range from 56 to 400 TW. Most estimates have implicitly assumed that extraction of wind energy does not alter large-scale winds enough to significantly limit wind power production. Estimates that ignore the effect of wind turbine drag on local winds have assumed that wind power production of 2–4 W m−2 can be sustained over large areas. New results from a mesoscale model suggest that wind power production is limited to about 1 W m−2 at wind farm scales larger than about 100 km2. We find that the mesoscale model results are quantitatively consistent with results from global models that simulated the climate response to much larger wind power capacities. Wind resource estimates that ignore the effect of wind turbines in slowing large-scale winds may therefore substantially overestimate the wind power resource.

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but limits the global extraction of wind power the most important moments a practical money land and the difficulty of managing when positive it's wind power grows in importance there's a prospect for taking a significant fraction of global primary energy supply and its relevant ask what the geophysical limits to wind power extraction
suppose a wind turbine stands alone and wind power site 1 cannot of course but another turbine directly behind it because that 2nd turbine would be in the slow when shadow of the 1st but imagine that 1 spaces turbines evenly across the whole site is 1 adds additional turbines the amount of power you get for each new turbine will be less than the previous because the collective effects of all the turbines will be too slow the wins over the site It's sampling the total amount of power produced will saturate and then decline is 1 has water lines the
estimates of global wind power capacity traditionally handled this by simple rules of thumb drive from small commercial installations of some being that you couldn't space wind turbines more than about 10 rotor diameters in practice this translated to a limit on power production of a few watts per square meter of land sources then estimates of the global capacity simply summed up local winds using these rules of thumb but of course this implicitly assumes that wind power extraction 1 place did not affect power extraction in distant sites in 2004 I co-authored a paper that examine the large-scale impacts of wind power class as part of that work we notice that large-scale term manic effects very limited the amount of wind power could be extracted but that paper used relatively primitive proposition of wind turbines in this paper Amanda Adams and I've used a much more sophisticated memorization embedded in a modern mesoscale climate models can look at much finer resolution and therefore it look meaningfully at smaller wind turbine arrays using 2 different boundary layer propositions and several different wind turbine arrays we found that the amount of wind power that could
be extracted saturated roughly 1 watt per square meter what was and review 2
new papers were published that abandon the non-interference assumption and used on a class of models to calculate the maximum geophysical limit to wind power structure finding a wind power global capacities well in excess of 100 at 1st glance it appears the results of these new papers are at odds with the results presented here the 1 we do a more careful apples to apples comparison we find surprising here we overlay
results from Jacobson on the results the current study and here we have similar
results from hot 2004 study given that the totality of these results involves several different wind turbine conversations in 3 different climate models and a variation in the size of wind farm arrays by more than a factor of 10 thousand the similarity of results is remarkable it suggests but does not prove that for a typical windspeed regimes large-scale tractable power may in practice be limited to less than 1 watt per square meter and the significant saturation effects may be expected about half a watt descriptor what is the upshot of these new
results the 2 new papers examining the geophysical in this with power both depend on the assumption that 1 is willing to cover all the lander even all the land and ocean surface with winter war policy relevant question is what is the wind capacity when 1 assumes that when power production is limited by distance from worksheet demand by competition for land and by the quality of the wind resource how we need this 1 I call this the policy constrained wind power capacity previous estimates of the policy constrained power capacity have drive numbers of water a few tens of terror once but those estimates implicitly that the local power production could go as high as several watts per square meter if wind power structure is in
practice limited below 1 watt per square meter then policy constrained estimates of global wind power capacity may be substantially exaggerated and actual capacities may be low enough to put a meaningful constraints on wind share of global primary energy over the next test but that's a guess
in answering this question will demand a new generation of studies combine physical limits to power extraction with social and economic limits to power site and these studies will have to take account of wind powers climatic impacts
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