Explicit feedback and the management of uncertainty in meeting climate objectives with solar geoengineering

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Video in TIB AV-Portal: Explicit feedback and the management of uncertainty in meeting climate objectives with solar geoengineering

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Explicit feedback and the management of uncertainty in meeting climate objectives with solar geoengineering
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CC Attribution 3.0 Unported:
You are free to use, adapt and copy, distribute and transmit the work or content in adapted or unchanged form for any legal purpose as long as the work is attributed to the author in the manner specified by the author or licensor.
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2014
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English

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Abstract
Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a method of meeting climate objectives, such as reduced globally averaged surface temperatures. However, because of incomplete understanding of the effects of geoengineering on the climate system, its implementation would be in the presence of substantial uncertainties. In our study, we use two fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models: one in which the geoengineering strategy is designed, and one in which geoengineering is implemented (a real-world proxy). We show that regularly adjusting the amount of solar geoengineering in response to departures of the observed global mean climate state from the predetermined objective (sequential decision making; an explicit feedback approach) can manage uncertainties and result in achievement of the climate objective in both the design model and the real-world proxy. This approach results in substantially less error in meeting global climate objectives than using a predetermined time series of how much geoengineering to use, especially if the estimated sensitivity to geoengineering is inaccurate.
Climate Video Electric power distribution Audio feedback
Contactor Cardinal direction Global warming
Noise reduction Temperature Solar energy Climate model Global warming Engine Flight simulator Model building Climate Group delay and phase delay
Zirkulator Plant (control theory) Climate model Model building Climate
Noise reduction Paper Woodturning Audio feedback Sunlight Wolkengattung Year Temperature Climate model Flight simulator Model building Climate
Noise reduction Roll forming Hot working Audio feedback Temperature Year Astronomisches Fenster Model building
my time the we
of when people have
simulated climate models which is 1 of the so it's a really great way to study geoengineering because we don't have 1 we don't want go out there and test you engineering to see what would happen so when people do that sort of thing in climate models they say OK let's try to achieve a climate goal but very often that's returning global mean temperature right the pre industrial and so what they do is they they plug in the amount of solar reduction or sulfate aerosol or whatever it happens to
be and they see alright to Michael and so we didn't of a bunch of the simulations with many different models in the Judiciary Molenaar Comparison Project ended when people 1st set out to do the most simple experiments they plugged in the amount of solar reduction they thought would be necessary 2 and everyone got and so they just didn't than ever tried again and the other and most of the modeling groups got right the the time but that's a little unnerving because if society of a develops a little to do geoengineering the future we can't get it wrong
we only have 1 plant and so 1 of the ways that we say you could actually and figure out the correct amount of geoengineering it's due to meet the climate goal is to use feedback on and not the the internal
feedbacks inclined to those already exist but what we did is we explicitly put in a feedback loop into a climate model and to the best of my knowledge for the 1st people to do this in the general circulation model where what you do is so you start out with a high C O
2 worlds or in the cloud model and then you look at what the temperature is as compared to what you want the temperature to be and then you just so if the temperatures to warm you turn the sun down you can do them a climate model for the temperatures to cold turns on back up and you do this every year sees simulator year look at the temperature change by just simulate another year adjusts until another year just and eventually using this really simple algorithm you can meet your climate goal whatever that happens to be the so what we show in this paper is that using this explicit feedback loop is very effective in meeting the climate goal it's actually more effective for the 1st time than if you just predicted the amount so a reduction you would need and and said OK let the model go and see what happens so this feedback is actually very effective and it's also effective if you've missed estimated the climate-sensitive so for example let's say you predict the
correct amount reduction before them all goes you prescribed and what the all reduction should
be and then you could go but you wrong about how sensitive the love of the model was to see you 2 or 2 solar reduction or any form of geoengineering while the temperature is not going to be your goal on if instead you use feedback and you adjust on the fly every time every year
that's every time you're measuring then you can correct for those in this estimation and of feedback works within a certain window even if you've missed system the context so we feel as though it again if society does decide to use geoengineering the future that feedback would play an integral role in managing the uncertainty involved with you
the
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