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Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus

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Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus
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CC Attribution 3.0 Unported:
You are free to use, adapt and copy, distribute and transmit the work or content in adapted or unchanged form for any legal purpose as long as the work is attributed to the author in the manner specified by the author or licensor.
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2014
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English

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Abstract
The discrepancy between recent observed and simulated trends in global mean surface temperature has provoked a debate about possible causes and implications for future climate change projections. However, little has been said in this discussion about observed and simulated trends in global temperature extremes. Here we assess trend patterns in temperature extremes and evaluate the consistency between observed and simulated temperature extremes over the past four decades (1971–2010) in comparison to the recent 15 years (1996–2010). We consider the coldest night and warmest day in a year in the observational dataset HadEX2 and in the current generation of global climate models (CMIP5). In general, the observed trends fall within the simulated range of trends, with better consistency for the longer period. Spatial trend patterns differ for the warm and cold extremes, with the warm extremes showing continuous positive trends across the globe and the cold extremes exhibiting a coherent cooling pattern across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes that has emerged in the recent 15 years and is not reproduced by the models. This regional inconsistency between models and observations might be a key to understanding the recent hiatus in global mean temperature warming.

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hello my name is San as and I'm
presenting our study on observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus the study was conducted together with my quarters mark was John Fife and Frances Spears a big debate has arisen
around to slow down in the increase of globally averaged annual mean surface temperatures in the recent 15 years this period has been referred to as global warming hiatus what's over the last decade has been the warmest on record since 18 50 it has been argued that current climate models are not able to reproduce this observe treason slowdown in mean surface temperature trend in many studies concentrated on explaining the potential reasons for this discrepancy
why do we average annual mean surface temperature gives us valuable information about the overall warming trend of our planet the most devastating consequences of climate change for humans and the environment are often associated with climate extremes happening at regional scales in populated areas in our study we therefore interested if this recent discrepancy between observed and simulated mean temperature trend what ought to be reflected in the temperature extremes we are using a set of climate
extremes indices as defined by the expert team on climate change detection indices these indices are available in observational data set headaches to which covers areas they usually no observational data for temperature precipitation extremes of publicly available in order for an extensive set of current climate models to scene 5 models in our study we use tools
of these climate extreme indices that capture the extreme temperatures at the warmest day in the Cordis night in the year we see large areas with significant increasing trends in these 2 extreme indices for the last 40 years for both the observations and the scene the 5 models these are the same maps but for the short a 15 year period namely the high his period we can all this that large areas of quoting emerge in the observations in the reason 15 years however most of these trend parents are not statistically significant as on these short timescales natural internal climate variability dominates
in these time series of 15 year running trends we see that in general the observations indicated as red line fall inside the simulated range of trends indicated by the gray shading for the global averages as well as to storm will averages for high and mid-latitudes significant differences are indicated as an accumulation of blue circles are only apparent in the northern hemisphere mid-latitude band in the recent 15 years by looking at every transfer
continental skin regions with sufficient observational data coverage we can see that all of our warmest day of the year became 1 of art and a recent hiatus period in the observations as well as in the models of the observed warming trend of the court is not even exceeds the warming of the warm stay in some regions particularly in the northern latitudes so as a heuristic only region where you can see a pronounced negative trend in accord is not temperature which is however not reproduce by demands in conclusion why appears to be a discrepancy between models and observations for the global average mean surface temperature and a Hiotis period as documented in other studies our study reveals that this discrepancy is generally not reflected in the temperature extremes except over reason cooling in the northern midlatitude minimum temperature extremes particularly pronounced in South Asia and we can to show the temperature extremes continue to increase of almost regions of the word with no indication of a slowdown of course and the higher the spirit I would like to thank
my courses as well as to sponsors who supported this research
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