Internal variability of Earth's energy budget simulated by CMIP5 climate models

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Internal variability of Earth's energy budget simulated by CMIP5 climate models
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We analyse a large number of multi-century pre-industrial control simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to investigate relationships between: net top-of-atmosphere radiation (TOA), globally averaged surface temperature (GST), and globally integrated ocean heat content (OHC) on decadal timescales. Consistent with previous studies, we find that large trends (~0.3 K dec−1) in GST can arise from internal climate variability and that these trends are generally an unreliable indicator of TOA over the same period. In contrast, trends in total OHC explain 95% or more of the variance in TOA for two-thirds of the models analysed; emphasizing the oceans' role as Earth's primary energy store. Correlation of trends in total system energy (TE ≡ time integrated TOA) against trends in OHC suggests that for most models the ocean becomes the dominant term in the planetary energy budget on a timescale of about 12 months. In the context of the recent pause in global surface temperature rise, we investigate the potential importance of internal climate variability in both TOA and ocean heat rearrangement. The model simulations suggest that both factors can account for O (0.1 W m−2) on decadal timescales and may play an important role in the recently observed trends in GST and 0–700 m (and 0–1800 m) ocean heat uptake.

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under the new and this is the video abstract for internal variability of its energy budget simulated by seem 5 climate models co-authored by my colleague not Palmer me we work at the Met Office Hadley Centre in the UK this research helps us better understand the recent polls in global surface temperature rise this surface hasn't warmed as quickly as expected in the 1st decade or so of the 21st century and there are a number of proposed reasons for the poles and even a robust discussion of whether it's a real phenomenon was simply due to a lack of observation of the pole I would like to know to what extent the pause could be explained by the internal variability of the climate system a life that is the random variation in the climate that occurs without external forcing from for example so the variability in large volcanic eruptions or from human activity how often my we see natural variations in the surface temperature of this size it could temporarily offset the surface warming seen in the last century or so what does this tell us about 70 budget we study the energy budget flows of energy in out and through the common system in 24 climate models from 16 modeling centers the data available in the mid 5 archive and we use control run simulations of the climate set have conditions similar to those at the end of the pre industrial period around 18 50 80 and these are enforced by external factors an advantage of using control words is that they're very long hundreds of years we get a good sample of internal variability of each model of the many time scales we analyze the following variables related to s energy budget 1st the net
accumulation or loss of energy in a system or the total energy change this is computed as the difference between the incoming solar radiation integrated over a period of time and the sum of the outgoing reflected solar radiation and the emitted long-wave radiation 2nd the global average surface
temperature the any record is shown here for both observations and for each kind of model 3rd ocean heat content this represents Earth primary-energy store and therefore should give a good indication of the accumulation or loss of energy for the whole system since we can break down the ocean he content changing to model as we can also look at the vertical redistribution of ocean heat the main findings are paid by our 1st
internal variability of the climate models could easily account for a decade or so without surface warming we would expect to see a temperature trend about the same size as the long-term warming trend in about 1 in 20 overlapping 15 year periods 2nd a trend in surface temperature over a decade or so we tell us little about the accumulation of energy near system over the same period conversely if we were able to more accurately measure global ocean he content we could monitor the signal of global warming more robustly on into annual to the cable time this diagram shows the relationship between the 2
cable change in full depth ocean heat and the total energy here on the Y axis the each climate model you can see that the relationship is much weaker when we measure the cable changes in surface temperature against changes in total energy again here on the Y axis 3rd internal variability in total energy and the cable
scales can be important of the order of No . 1 2 no comma decimal 2 watts per meter squared this is a similar order to many of the external force things that have been invoked to try to explain the poles 4th the vertical redistribution of the in the ocean is also important on the cable time of ordinal comma decimal 1 watts per meter squared this is relevant to our understanding of the climate system because historically we only have reliable estimates of ocean he content change over the EPA's 700 meters so we also show that the nature of
internal variability can be very different in different climate models this applies the variations in surface temperature total system energy content and the characteristics of ocean he rearrangement in the next stage of work we will study the specific spatial patterns and mechanisms of the redistribution the models can these provide a means to account for model biases and help to decide which models a more representative of the real system thanks for watching on video