Climate change as a migration driver from rural and urban Mexico

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Climate change as a migration driver from rural and urban Mexico
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Studies investigating migration as a response to climate variability have largely focused on rural locations to the exclusion of urban areas. This lack of urban focus is unfortunate given the sheer numbers of urban residents and continuing high levels of urbanization. To begin filling this empirical gap, this study investigates climate change impacts on US-bound migration from rural and urban Mexico, 1986–1999. We employ geostatistical interpolation methods to construct two climate change indices, capturing warm and wet spell duration, based on daily temperature and precipitation readings for 214 weather stations across Mexico. In combination with detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project, we model the influence of climate change on household-level migration from 68 rural and 49 urban municipalities. Results from multilevel event-history models reveal that a temperature warming and excessive precipitation significantly increased international migration during the study period. However, climate change impacts on international migration is only observed for rural areas. Interactions reveal a causal pathway in which temperature (but not precipitation) influences migration patterns through employment in the agricultural sector. As such, climate-related international migration may decline with continued urbanization and the resulting reductions in direct dependence of households on rural agriculture.

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this presentation provides a brief overview of the article climate changes migration driver from rule under Mexico recently published in Environmental Research letters most prior research on the relationship between climate migration has focused on rural areas however much of the world population is residing in urban areas with the trend of increased urbanization in future decades as such it is important to investigate climate impacts and migration responses among government populations
in rule areas livelihoods heavily depend on agriculture for sustenance and income generation and a lack of technology and insurance markets makes households highly vulnerable to adverse climate change in rome areas climate may impact labor productivity and health conditions while extreme weather events may destroy infrastructure in both rule under Mayor households adversely impacted by climate change may employ international migration as a strategy to excess alternative income streams and stabilize Latvia's to investigate drool
over differences in the cloud migration Association are all come burial measures international migration from households as primary predictors we constructed to climate change in the sees the walls buggeration index and the West alteration index based on daily temperature and precipitation information
this map shows our 111 study municipalities skidded across Mexico moms parties are shown in red rules' parties are shown in angry the small blue dots represent 214 weather stations from which we obtain daily temperature and precipitation data to construct our climate change indicators in this table the results
from multi-level event history moles are expressed in alterations meaning that the value buff 1 represents a positive effect by low value below 1 represents the negative effect the results for the combined sample blue box show that an increase in 1 spell duration as well as an increase in wet spell duration increase international migration in Mexico when desegregating the sample into rule green box and red box we find that climate change has significant impacts on international migration only from rule areas because we observed that climate
impacts migration was strong in rural areas we also explored role the climate effect operates through the agriculture sector to this end we interact at the climate change variables with a measure of the percentage of male labor force employed in agriculture as highlighted by the blue box the results revealed a significant interaction but only for temperature effects this figure was
used to visualize the interaction through predicted probabilities there's almost no relationship between increase in warming and migration for areas with only little employment in the agriculture sector the like gray line in contrast the relationship becomes very strong black line when a large fraction of the labor force is employed in agriculture in
conclusion our study shows that a warming in temperature and long wet spells increased international of migration from Mexico during the period of 1986 to 1999 we find that climate change led to international migration from rural but not from areas finally we find evidence that climate impacts on migration operate through employment in the agriculture sector