Regional climate change and national responsibilities

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Video in TIB AV-Portal: Regional climate change and national responsibilities

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Regional climate change and national responsibilities
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CC Attribution 3.0 Unported:
You are free to use, adapt and copy, distribute and transmit the work or content in adapted or unchanged form for any legal purpose as long as the work is attributed to the author in the manner specified by the author or licensor.
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2016
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English

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Abstract
Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the 'bell curve' defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

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global warming is small compared to weather fluctuations over the past 40 years global warming is about 1 degree Fahrenheit or 6 tenths of a degree Celsius but that's already enough to load the climate dikes to affect the frequency of unusually warm or cold seasons
seasonal average temperature fluctuates from year to year anomalies from the average climate in 1951 the nineteen 80 approximately formed a bell curve so 50 years ago the chances of an unusually warm season indicated by RAND or unusually cool were equal as shown here for Northern Hemisphere lamp but it's Earth gets warmer in the bell curve shifts to higher temperatures for northern hemisphere land in summer the shift now exceeds 1 standard deviation or standard deviation is a typical year-to year fluctuations most summers are now in the red Catacora unusually warm extreme heat of more than 3 standard deviations which almost never occurred 50 years ago recently is occurring about 15 per cent of the time the shift varies
geographically geographically in the United States the shift is 1 standard deviation in summer which people should know this but only half a standard deviation in winter it is hard to notice in Europe the bell curve shift is a bit larger than in the west in China and India is still larger about 1 and a half
standard deviations in summer and 1 standard deviation in winter in the Mediterranean and Middle East which already had hot summers
that summer shift is large about two-and-a-half standard deviations every summer is warmer than the average 50 years ago and summer weather now last longer in the tropics which include Central
Africa and Southeast Asia the warming is about 2 standard deviations or more and it occurs all year round impacts
include greater climate extremes stronger droughts in subtropical regions such as the U.S. Southwest and the Middle East more extreme rain and floods in white regions greatest impacts on low latitude regions that were already hot did he makes life more difficult and reduces work productivity which has substantial economic effects there is empirical evidence that conflicts and violence among people groups and nations increase as it becomes to honor vector borne diseases
involving affections from blood-sucking mosquitoes text can spread to higher latitudes in greater altitudes is warming increases national
responsibilities for global warming follow from the fact that fossil fuels C O 2 emissions are the primary cause
China has about 25 per cent of today's nation U.S. 15 % India's 3rd however the climate change is caused by cumulative emissions the U.S. and Europe are each responsible for more than a quarter of total emissions China for 10 % India 3 per cent on a per capita basis the West
responsibility for climate change is an order of magnitude greater than China or India India the rest of Asia Pacific and Africa have been met at the least
but have large climate impacts these
regions have potential for huge
future relations but the West has already burned most of the carbon that can be burned without disastrous consequences the 2 two-degree Celsius warming above preindustrial would yield bell curve shifts 3 times larger than those that have occurred already with highly deleterious impact yet the approach at the
Paris climate summit was simply to
ask each country to try to cap and
then reduces emissions such a country-by-country cap approach is ineffectual a recipe for disaster we can face down fossil fuel use only if fossil fuel prices need to include its cost to society by adding a rising domestic carbon fee lending their clean energies and energy efficiency compete on an honest fair playing field that is economically most efficient and will raise living standards however the developed world also must recognize its responsibility to developing nations assistance must be provided in clean energy technologies allowing sustainable development and stabilization of climate thanks for listening
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