The Fresnel diffraction phenomenon referred to as Poisson's spot or spot of Arago has, beside its historical significance, become relevant in a number of fields. Among them are for example fundamental tests of the super-position principle in the transition from quantum to classical physics and the search for extra-solar planets using star shades. Poisson's spot refers to the positive on-axis wave interference in the shadow of any spherical or circular obstacle. While the spot's intensity is equal to the undisturbed field in the plane wave picture, its intensity in general depends on a number of factors, namely the size and wavelength of the source, the size and surface corrugation of the diffraction obstacle, and the distances between source, obstacle and detector. The intensity can be calculated by solving the Fresnel–Kirchhoff diffraction integral numerically, which however tends to be computationally expensive. We have therefore devised an analytical model for the on-axis intensity of Poisson's spot relative to the intensity of the undisturbed wave field and successfully validated it both using a simple light diffraction setup and numerical methods. The model will be useful for optimizing future Poisson-spot matter-wave diffraction experiments and determining under what experimental conditions the spot can be observed.