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Dude, you broke the Future!

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the the if you would of course it is my pleasure to announce the next speaker I was supposed to come in pick up a few awards or something to actually prison what he's done in his life but I can only say he's 1 of us of solve thrust fewer life to some good great many to be here and I wanna start by apologizing for my total lack of Germans so this talk is going to be in English and good morning I'm Charlie Stross and is my job to tell lies for money moreover I write science fiction much it about found future which in recent years has become ridiculously hard to predict and in this talk and talk about why that all species homo sapiens sapiens is about 300 thousand years old it used to be about 200 thousand years old but it grew at x 200 thousand years in the past year because of new archaeological discoveries i mean go figure some for all but the last 3 centuries also that span however predicting the future was really easy if you an average person as opposed to maybe a king were Pope natural disasters aside everyday life 50 years in the future would resemble everyday life 50 years in your past let us let that sink in for a bit of the 99 . 9 % of human existence on this earth of the future with static then something changed the future began to shift increasingly rapidly until in the present day things are moving so fast is barely possible to anticipate trends from 1 month to and to the next now yeah as an eminent computer scientist at the dykstra once remarked computer science is no more about computers than astronomy is about building big telescopes the same can be said of my field work writing science fiction sci fi is rarely about science and even more rarely about predicting the future but sometimes we dabble in futurism and lately futurism has gotten really really where it Mount when I write in their future work of fiction 1 sets say a decade hence they used to be a recipe i could follow that would it really well simply put 90 % of the next decade stuff is already here around us today buildings designed to last many years automobiles the design life about a decade so half the cars on the road in 20 27 are already there now then you people there will be some new faces age 10 and under and some older people died but most of us adults will still be around albeit older and grayer own this is the 90 % of the near future that's already here today after the already existing 90 % another 9 % the near future her decade hence used to be easily predictable you look at trends dictated by physical limits such as Moore's law and you look at Intel's roadmap and use a bit of creative extrapolation and you won't get too far off if I predicts wearing my futurology have that in 2027 LTE cellular phones will be ubiquitous 5 G will be available for high bandwidth applications and they'll be fall back to some kind of satellite data service at the price you probably won't laugh at me I mean it's not like I'm predicting the airlines will fly slower not will take over the United States is it and therein lies the problem there is remaining 1 % of what Don Rumsfeld called the unknown unknowns the throws off all predictions as it happens airliners to date are slower than they were a 19 seventies and don't get me started about the Nazis I mean nobody in 2007 was expecting a Nazi revival in 2017 will they only this time germs get to be the good guys a few so my recipe for fiction set 10 years in the future used to be 90 % is already here 9 % is not here yet but predictable and 1 % is who ordered that but unfortunately the ratios of changed I think when to maybe 80 % already here as climate change takes a huge toll on architecture then 15 % not here yet but predictable and a whopping 5 of of the unpredictable D craziness the now before I carry on this talk I want to spend a minute or 2 Lansing loudly and ruling out the singularity some of you might assume that is the author of books like Singularity Sky an accelerando our moon I it's that expects an impending technological singularity but we will develop self-improving artificial intelligence in mind uploading and the whole wish list of transhumanist aspirations promoted by the likes of Ray Kurzweil will come to pass unforeseen this isn't the case I think trans humanism is a warmed-over Christian heresy what is adherence tend to be more outspoken atheist they can't quite escape from the history that gave rise to our current Western civilization many of you are familiar with design patterns approach to software engineering but focuses on abstraction and simplification in order to promote reusable code when you look at the AI singularity as a narrative and identify the numerous places invest story where the phrase and then a miracle happens occur it becomes apparent pretty quickly but they have reinvented Christianity indeed vol wellspring of today's transhumanists drawn along rich history of Russian philosophy exemplified by the Russian Orthodox theologian Nikolai fewer Robert thereof by way of his disciple Constantin's Tchaikovsky who would dare whose derivation of a rocket equation makes an essentially the father of modern space spaceflights once you start probing the nether regions of transhumanist thought concepts like Rho cos basilisk by the way any of you who didn't know about the basilisk before now do intermittency in AI help terribly sorry you realize they've mangled it to match some of the nastier aspects of Presbyterian Protestantism no they basically invented original sin and Satan in the guise of an AI that doesn't exist yet it's kind peculiar and wake my take on the singularity is listening walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it's probably a duck and if it looks like a religion it's probably a religion I don't see much evidence the human-like self-directed artificial intelligence is coming along anytime soon offended evidence but nobody except some freaks in cognitive science departments even want it I mean if we invented an AI that was like a human mind it'd do the AI equivalent of sitting on the sofa munching popcorn and watching the super bowl day it will be much use to us always getting instead is self optimizing tools that define human comprehension but are not in fact any more what are kind of intelligence but a Boeing 7 3 7 is like a seagull Boeing 7 3 7 and Siegel blow fly Boeing 7 3 7 is don't lay eggs and shit everywhere so I don't wash my hands of a singularity is a useful explanatory model of the future without further ado um on what was them and they fuse as well I'm going to try and offer you a better model for what's happening to us now as my fellow Scottish science fiction author Ken MacLeod likes to say the secret weapon of science fiction is history histories loosely speaking is the written record of what and how people did things in past times times that of slipped out of our personal memories we science fiction writers tend to treat history as a giant to adjust to raid whenever we feel like telling a story a with a little bit of history it's really easy to whip up an entertaining on about a Galactic Empire mirrors the development and decline of the Habsburg Empire watery spin the October Revolution as a tale of Hamas got its independence but history is useful for so much more than that it turns out that our personal memories don't spend very much time at all I'm 53 and I barely remember the 19 sixties I only remember the 19 seventies the eyes of a 6 to 16 year old my father died this year age 93 and he just about remember the 19 thirties only those my father's generation directly remember the great depression and can compare it to the 2007 awake global financial crisis directly we Westerners tend to pay little attention to cautionary tales told by 90 some things we're more than would change obsessed and we tend to repeat our because social mistakes just as they slip out of living memory which means there occur on a time scale of 70 to 100 years so far personal memories useless we need a better
tool kit and history provides that toolkit history gives us the perspective to see what went wrong in the past and to look for patterns and check to see whether those patterns are occurring in the present looking in particular at the history the past 2 to 400 years that age a rapidly increasing change dimension beginning 1 glaringly obvious deviation from the norm of the preceding 3 thousand centuries is obvious and that's the development of artificial intelligence which happens no earlier than 15 53 and no later than 18 44 I'm talking of course about the very old very slow a eyes we call corporations what lessons from history the company can we draw that tell us about the likely behavior of the type of artificial intelligence we're interested in here today well the amount of water or let me cribbed from Wikipedia for moment Wikipedia in the late 18th century Stewart kid the or from the 1st treaties on corporate law in English defined a corporation as a collection of many individuals united into 1 body or under a special denomination having perpetual succession under an artificial form and vested by policy of along with the capacity of acting in several respects as an individual under enjoying privileges and immunities in common of exercise in a variety of political rights more or less extensive according to the design of its institution of the powers conferred upon it by the time of its creation or any subsequent period of its existence this was a late 18th century definitions sound like a piece of software to you in 18 44 the British government passed the Joint Stock Companies Act which created a register of companies and I had any legal persons for a fee to register a company which in turn existed as a separate legal person prior to that point it required a royal charter an act of parliament to create a company subsequently the law was extended to limit the liability of individual shareholders in event of business failure member of Germany and United States added their own unique twists to what today we see is the doctrine of corporate personhood now there are plenty of other things that happened between the 16th and 21st centuries the change the shape of the world we live in I've skipped the changes in agricultural POV productivity that happen due to energy economics which finally broke the Fuzion trap predecessors lived in this in turn broke the long-term cap on economic growth of about 0 . 1 % the year in the absence of famines plagues wars and so on escape the germ theory of disease is in the development of trade and powers in the age of sail gunpowder who made possible by advances in accurate time measurement escape the rise and hopefully decline of the pernicious theory of scientific racism but underpinned Western colonialism of the slave trade escaped the rise of feminism be idealogical position but women are human beings rather than property of the decline of patriarch escaped the whole of the enlightenment in the Age of Revolutions but this is a technocratic technocentric Congress on a frame This talk in terms of AI which we all like to think we understand here's the thing about these artificial persons we call corporations legally that people they have goals they operate and pursue to these goals they have a natural life cycle in 19 fifties a typical US cooperation on B S and P 500 index have a lifespan of 60 years today is down to less than 20 years this is largely due to predation corporations accountable state each 1 of us there also hides superorganisms like weasel and it's the 1st century and a half the relied entirely on human employs of their internal operation but today that automates in that business processes very rapidly each human is only retained so long as they can perform better assigned task to more efficiently than a piece of software and they can all be replaced by another human much as the cells in our own bodies of functionally interchangeable and a group of cells can in extremist often be replaced by a prosthetic device to some extent corporations can be trained to serve the the personal desires of the chief executives but even CEO's can be dispensed with it their activities damage the cooperation as Harvey Weinstein found out a couple of months ago finally a legal environment today has been tailored for the convenience of corporate persons rather than human persons to the point where our governments now mimic corporations in many variants of structures so to understand where we're going to start by asking what to our current actually existing AI overlords warm and now the law must know I believe you've all heard of has an obsessive fear of 1 particular hazard of artificial intelligence which he conceives of as being a piece of software that functions like a brain in a box namely of the paper clip optimizer yeah or maximize a paper clip maximizes a term of art for goal-seeking AI has a single priority for example maximizing the number of paper clips in the universe the paper could maximizes able to improve itself in pursuit of its goal but has no ability to various go so ultimately attempt to convert all the metallic elements in the solar system into paper clips even if this is obviously detrimental to the well-being of humans who set this goal unfortunately I don't think must is paying enough attention consider his own company's Tesla isn't a paper clip maximize it's a battery maximizer after all battery electric cars a battery with wheels and seats space X is an orbital payload maximizer driving down the cost of space launches in order to encourage more sales for the so this provides so city is a photovoltaic panel maximizer and so on all 3 of these masks very own slow AI is based on an architecture designed to maximize return on shareholder investment even if by doing so they cook the planet the shareholders have to live on and the entire thing into solar panels behavior in almost that's OK you can retire on Mars anyway by the way I'm writing almost in this talk simply because he's the current opinionated tech billionaire who things that disrupt in a couple of industries entitles him to make headlines this was 2007 and my focus slightly different different i be ranking on Steve Jobs and we're in 1997 my target would be Bill Gates that take it personally long back to topic the problem of corporations is that despite their over Goals whether they make electric vehicles will bear also life insurance policies they all have a common implicit paper-clip maximizer goal to generate revenue if they don't make money that eaten by big a predator or they go bust is is vital to them as breathing is less mammals the generally pursue the implicit goal maximizing revenue by pursuing their goal but sometimes they try instead to manipulate their environments to ensure that money flows to them regardless even until making culture has become very complicated over time new technologies always come with an attached implicit political agenda that seeks to extend the use of the technology governments react to this by legislating to control the technologies and sometimes we end up with industries actually indulging in legal duels through the regulatory mechanism of law to determine who's prevails for example consider the automobile you can't have mass automobile transport about gas stations and fuel distribution pipelines these in turn require access to whoever owns the land the oil is extracted from under and before you know it you end up with a permanent army in Iraq the clan dictatorship in Saudi Arabia closer to home automobiles imply jaywalking laws and drink-driving laws fx town planning regulations and encourage suburban sprawl the construction of human infrastructure on a scale required by automobiles not pedestrians this in turn is bad for competing transport technologies like busses or trams which work best in cities with a high population density so to get laws favor the automobile in place providing an environment conducive to doing business automobile companies spend money on political lobbyists when they can get away with it on bribes the right we needn't be blatant of costs for example the reforms of the British Railway network in the 19 sixties dismembered many branch lines and coincided the surge road building an automobile sales these reforms were orchestrated by Transport Minister Ernest models who was purely a politician the fact that he accumulates the considerable personal fortune during this period by buying shares in motorway construction corporations has nothing to do with it and so no conflict of interest there now the automobile industry can't be considered a pure paper-clip maximizer that the sorry the automobile industry
in isolation cannot be considered pure paper that maximizes you have to look at it in conjunction with the fossil fuel industry is the road construction business the accident insurance sector and so on when you do this you begin to see the outline of a paper clip maximizing ecosystem that invades far-flung lands and grinds up and kills around 1 a quarter million people per year that's the global death toll from automobile accidents currently according to the World Health Organization it rivals the 1st world war on an on-going permanent basis and these roles side effects this try to sell you a new car now automobiles aren't of course the total liabilities today's cars regulated stringently safety in in very to reduce toxic emissions that fast efficient and comfortable we can found legal mandated regulations imposed by governments of this of course go back to the 19 seventies and cars didn't have crumple zones go back to the fifties and they didn't come with seat belts as standard in the 19 thirties indicators turn signals and brake all full wheels or optional and your best hope of surviving a 50 kilometer per hour crash was to be thrown out of the car land somewhere without breaking your neck regulator agencies brought current political systems tool of choice for preventing paper-clip maximizes from running amok unfortunately regulators don't always work the 1st failure mode of regulators that you need to be aware of regulate capture where regulatory bodies are captured by the industries they control I did try head the kid American Federal Communications Commission which just voted to eliminate net you chirality rules in the United States has worked as associate general counsel for Verizon Communications Inc the largest current descendant of the Bell telephone systems monopoly after the AT and T antitrust lawsuit the bell network was broken up into the 7 Baby Bells now pretty much reformed and re aggregated and the rise on is the largest current 1 why should someone with a transport transparent interest MIT Technology Corp end up running a regulator that tries to control the industry in question well if you're going to regulate a complex technology you need to recruit regulators from people who understand its of fortune most those people or industry insiders and pies clearly very much aware of have a rate Verizon is regulated very insightful into its operations on wants to do something about it just not necessarily in the public interest when few when regulators and staffed by people drawn from the industries they supposed to control they frequently end up working with their form of this makes make it easier to turn a profit either by raising barriers to keep new insurgent companies out about dismantling safeguards to protect the public now the 2nd problem is regulatory lack where technology advances so rapidly that regulations a laughably obsolete the time they received consider the EU directive requiring cooking notices on sites to caution users that their activities at Trent and their privacy may be violated this would be a good idea in 1993 or 1996 but I'm 40 didn't show up until 2011 fingerprinting and tracking mechanisms have nothing to do with cookies more already widespread by that Tim Berners Lee observed in 1995 but 5 years of of changes happening on the web every 12 months of real world time by that yardstick the cookie law came out nearly a century too late to do any good again look at Cuba this month the European Court of Justice ruled that numerous a taxi service not aware that this is not to be correct the problem is but the spread globally since it was founded 8 years ago subsidizing its drivers to put competing private higher firms out of business whether this is the net good for society is not is debatable the problem is a taxi driver can get awfully hungry if she has to wait 8 years for court ruling against a predator intent on disrupting the business so the recast firstly we already have paper-clip maximizes and must stay i alarmism is curiously mirror blind secondly we have mechanisms for keeping paper-clip maximizes in check but they don't work very well against a eyes that deploy the dark arts especially corruption bribery and they even worse against true a eyes that evolve to fast human-mediated mechanisms like the law to keep up with finally unlike the naive vision of the paper clip maximizer that maximizes only paper clips existing a eyes have multiple agendas there over cold but also profit-seeking expansion into new markets and to accommodate the desire of whoever is currently in the driving seat the I now this brings me to the next major heading in this dismaying laundry list how it all went wrong it seems to me that our current political upheavals the best understood as arriving as a rock arising from the capture of post 1917 democratic institutions by large scale AI everywhere you look you see voters protesting angrily against entrenched establishment that seems determined to ignore the wants and needs of a human constituents in favor of those of the machines the breaks it up so that was largely the result of a protest vote against the British political establishment the election of Donald Trump likewise with a side order of racism on top of major political parties led by people who are compatible with the system as it exists today a system that has been shaped over decades by corporations distorting our government and regulatory environments we humans live in a world shaped the desires and needs of AI forced to live on their terms of we're talk away valuable only to the extent we contribute to the rule of machines now this is free C and we're all more interested in computers and communications technology in this historical crap but as I said earlier history a secret weapon if you know how to use it what history is good for is enabling us to spot recurring patterns repeat across timescales outside of personal experience and cannot historical very slow way eyes what we learn from them about modern AI and how it's going to behave well to start with RAI Sabine walked the new way eyes be electronic ones instantiated now machines have been warped by a terrible fundamentally flawed design decision back in 1995 but is damaged democratic political processes crippled our ability to truly understand the world around us and alleged to be angry upheavals not sets the present decade that mistake was the decision to fund the build-out of a public World Wide Web as opposed to the earlier government-funded corporate and academic internet by monetising eyeballs through advertising revenue the unsupported web we use to today wasn't inevitable if you recall the Web as it was in 1994 there were very few adds all and not much in the way of commerce 1994 was via the World Wide Web really came to public attention in the Anglophone world and consumer-facing websites began to appear nobody really knew how this thing was going to be paid for the original dot com bubble was all about working out how to monetize the web for the 1st time a lot of people lost their shirts and process on naive initial assumption was that the transaction cost of setting up a TCP IP connection over modem was too high to support to be supported by poor use micro billing for web pages so set of charging people fraction of the euro cent for every page view we build customers indirectly by shoving adverts advertising banners and front their eyes and hoping they click through and by something to unfortunately advertising is in an industry but those pre-existing very slow AI ecosystems I already alluded to advertising tries to maximize its hold on the attention of the minds behind each human eyeball the coupling of advertising of Web search was an inevitable outgrowth I mean how better to attract the attention of reluctance subjects and find out what they really interested in seeing and selling and relate to those interest the problem of applying the paper could maximize reproached monopolizing eyeballs however is that eyeballs balls are limited scarce resource for only 168 thousand every week in which I can gaze banner ads moreover most stanza relevant to my interest and doesn't matter how often you flash at the dog biscuits at me I'm never going to buy any other cat to make best revenue-generating use of arrivals is necessary for the ad industry to learn who we are and what interests us and target us increasingly minutely in hope of walking this with stuff attracted to In other words the ad industry is a paper clip maximize over for its success relies on developing a theory of mind that applies to human beings the joint divert under the impression rant about the hideous corruption evil
Facebook that OK somebody said yes and yes even at all before but the too long don't read summary is Facebook as much a search engines Google or Amazon Facebook searches are optimized the faces that is the human beings if you wanna find someone you fell out of touch with 30 years ago Facebook probably knows where they live what their favorite color is what shots I shoes they wear and what I said about you to your friends behind your back all those years ago but made you cut from them off even if you don't have a Facebook account Facebook has a you account for a hole in the social graph a bunch of connections pointing into it and your name tag to new friends photographs they know a lot about you and they sell access to their social graph to advertisers event target you even if you don't think you use Facebook indeed there is barely any point in not using Facebook these days that the social media balk resistance is futile so however Facebook is gonna get eyeballs announced so it's twitter and so Google to do this they fine-tuned the content they show you how to make it more attractive to rise and by attractive I do not mean pleasant pleasant we humans have an evolved automatic reflex to pay attention to fret some horrors as well as pleasurable stimuli the algorithms will determine what they show us when we look at Facebook wanted to take this sparse into account you me at might react more strongly to a public hanging around or an outrageous statement by Donald Trump into a couple kissing the algorithm knows no show you whatever makes you pay attention not necessarily what you need or want to see so this brings me to another point about computerized AI as opposed to corporate AI and I algorithms tend to embody the prejudices and beliefs of 5 of programmers all the data the AI was trained on a couple of years ago I ran across an account of a webcam developed by mostly pale skin Silicon Valley engineers that had difficulty focusing or achieving correct color balance when pointed at dark-skinned faces that's an example of human programmer induced bias they didn't have enough worldwide enough test set and didn't recognize that they were inherently biased towards expect expecting people to have pairs skaters of today's deep learning bias can creep in the other datasets neural networks trained on but even without a program is intending it Microsoft's 1st foray into conversational chapel driven by machine learning TEI was what we can't offline within days last year because four-channel it based trolls discovered they could train it toward racism and sexism the ships and giggles just imagine Europe report naive innocent A I who's just been switched on and you have been deposited Turing test and what happens fortune and decide to play with you had I gotta feel sorry for today that humans may be biased but at least individually were accountable and if somebody gives you racist or sexist abused you face you can complain or maybe punch it's impossible to punch a corporation and it may not even be possible to identify the source of unfair bias when you're dealing with a machine learning system AI-based systems that instantiate existing prejudices make social change harder traditional advertising works by playing on the target customers insecurity and fear as much as the aspirations and fear of a loss of social status and privileges of powerful stretch fearing xenophobia useful tools for tracking advertising eyeballs what happens when we get pervasive social networks of and biases against say feminism or Islam or melanin or deep learning systems trained on datasets contaminated by racist digits their propaganda deep learning systems like the ones inside Facebook to determine which stories to show you to get you to pay as much attention as possible to the adverts I think you probably have an inkling of have where this is now going now if you think this is sound a bit Laeken unpleasant you'd be right I write sci-fi you read or watch place sci-fi acculturated to think of science and technology is good things that make life better but this angle always so plenty of technologies have historically been heavily regulated or even criminalized the good reason on once you get past any reflexive indignation criticism technology in progress you might agree with me but it is reasonable to ban individuals from owning nuclear weapons or nerve gas less obviously they may not be weapons but we've band chlorofluorocarbon refrigerants because they were building up in the high status then destroying the ozone layer that protects us from UVB radiation we bounced foul led incur in gasoline because it poison people led to a crime way these are not weapon on these are not weaponize technologies that they have horrible side effects now nerve gas unleaded gasoline when 19 thirties chemical chemical technologies promoted by 19 thirties corporations halogenated refrigerants and nuclear weapons are totally 19 forties Icbm the data the 19 fifties it have difficulty seeing what people getting so worked up with North Korea North Korea reaches 1953 level parity be terrified and hide under the bed am I submit the 21st century's from the dangers new technologies just as our existing strategies for regulating very slow way I have proven to be inadequate yeah and I don't have an answer to how we regulate new technologies I just want to find it up as a huge social problem that is going to affect the coming century and either give you 4 examples of new types of AI application going to walk past societies even more badly can the old slow a eyes we have of you have done this isn't an exhaustive list this is just some examples like dream I pulled out of my ass we need to work at a general structure getting on top of this sort of thing before they get on top of us and I think this is actually a very urgent problem some just gonna give you this list of dangerous dangerously technologies that are arriving now all coming insinuator think about what to do next I mean we are activists here we should be thinking about this and planning what to do now the 1st nasty technology I want to talk about his political hacking tools rely on social graph directed propaganda how it this is low-hanging fruit off to the electoral surprises of 20 16 Cambridge analytical pioneered the use of deep learning by scanning the Facebook and Twitter social graphs to identify voters political affiliations by simply looking at what tweets or Facebook comments they liked they're able to do this to identify individuals with a high degree of precision who were vulnerable to persuasion and who lived electorally sensitive districts they then composed from the propaganda that targeted their personal hot-button issues to change the electoral intentions the tools developed by Web advertisers to sell products of non being weaponized for political purposes on the amount of personal information about our affiliations we expose on social media makes us vulnerable aside from the last US presidential election is mounting evidence for the British referendum on leading the EU was subject to foreign cyber war attack by weaponize social media as well as the most recent French presidential election in fact if we remember the leak of e-mails from a common campaign it turns out that many of those e-mails were false because microM campaign anticipated that they would be attacked and and e-mail truth would be leaked in the last days before the election so that deliberately set up false e-mails that would be hacked and then delete and then could be discredited against which fast now encounter biting my tongue and try not to take sides here by my own political affiliation after all and I'm not terribly mainstream but if social media companies don't work out how to identify and fight micro micro-targeted propaganda then democratic institutions will stop working and elections will be replaced by victories whoever combine the most roles this would simply be billionaires but like the Koch brothers and Robert Mercer United States foreign elections whoever will happen because tax cuts Russian military cyber war doctrine calls for the use of social media to confuse and disable perceived enemies in addition to the increasingly familiar use of zero-day exploits the espionage such a spear phishing distributed denial-of-service attacks on infrastructure which a practice by Western agencies problem is once the Russians have demonstrated that this is an effective tactic the use of propaganda both armies inside the wall will go global that point are social discourse will be irreparably poisoned incident that like to add but as an oversight the must I hate the cyber prefix usually indicates the whoever's using it has no idea what they're talking about a few unfortunately much is the way the term hacker was corrupted from its original meaning in the 19 nineties the term cyber war who seems to have stopped and it's now an actual thing that we can point to and say this is what what we're talking about so I'm afraid
we stuck with this really horrible term but that's a I question I should get back on top because of an eagle 20 minutes to go back the 2nd threats that we need to think about regulating or controlling is an adjunct to deep learning target propaganda is the use of neural network generated false video media we use the photoshopped images these days but faking video and audio takes it to the next level and luckily taking video and audio is intensive isn't it what uh nope not anymore we're seeing the 1st generation of AI assisted video pour in which the faces all film stars are map onto those of other people in the video clip using software rather laborious in human process a properly trained neural network um recognizes faces and transforms the face of the Hollywood star they want to put into a porn movie into the face of onto the face of the porn star in the form click and suddenly you have 0 dear god get it out of my head but not the not gonna give you an example so let's just say it's bad stuff meanwhile we have wave net a system for generating realistic sounding speech in the voice of a human speaker the neural network has been trained to mimic any human speaker we can now put words into other people's mouths realistically that employing a voice actor this talk is still deep intensive requires relatively expensive GPU or cloud computing clusters but in less than a decade it'll be out in the wild to understanding any damn script kitty can use unjust that everyone will be able to take up a realistic video of someone they don't like doing something horrible I mean Donald Trump in the White House I cannot help but hope the Alvesson there some other some people like Steve Bannon with a huge lack of service who's speaking it's all but not now we are also we've already seen along this year over this YouTube channels that attempt to monetize children's TV brands by scraping the video content of legitimate channels and adding their own advertising keywords on top before reposting it this basically you U-tube spam many of these channels is shaped by paper-clip maximizing advertising a eyes but is simply trying to maximize their search ranking on you tube and it's in tally algorithmic you have a whole list of key words you put mutate them you slap them on top of existing popular videos and re-upload the videos on once you have a neural network driven tools in certain character a into pirated video beta click maximize the put maximizing box didn't get very weird tho and it gets even weirder when these tools are deployed for political gain we tend being primates that evolve 400 thousand years ago in a smart phone 3 environments to evaluate the inputs from our reasoning is much less critically the more random strangers on the Internet us in text we're ready to vulnerable to fake news as it is soon they'll be coming for us all the believable video evidence the smart money says that by 2027 you won't be able to believe anything you see in video unless for a cryptographic signatures only linking it back to the camera bookshop overall feed you know how good most people are using encryption is going to be chaos so paper clip maximizes the focus on my balls of very 20th century the new generation is gonna be focusing on our nervous system advertising is an industry can only exist because of a quirk of our nervous system which is the was susceptible to addiction bit tobacco gambling all heroin we recognize addictive behavior when we see it will do we it turns out the human brains reward feedback loops are relatively easy to gain large corporations like Zynga produces a Fondo exist solely because of it free to use social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter a dominant precisely because they're structured to reward frequent short bursts of interaction and to generate emotional engagement not necessarily positive emotions anger and hatred just as good when it comes to attracting eyeballs for advertisers small from addiction is a side effect of advertising is a revenue model frequent short bursts of interaction to keep coming back for more now the new new development thanks to deep learning again I keep coming back to deep learning don't I use of neural networks in a manner that Marvin Minsky never envisaged back when he was deciding that the perceptron was it began and ended they couldn't do anything up what we have neuro Santos now Hoover mechanized the process of making acts more addictive don't mean labs is 1 start up the provides tools help developers to make any app more addictive as well as reduce the desire to continue participating in a behavior it is undesirable if the optimal that she wants to help people kick the habit this goes way beyond automated A B testing A B testing allows developers to plot a binary tree path between options moving towards a single desired goal but true deep learning Mac addictive maximizes can optimize the multiple attractors in parallel the more users you've got on your app the more effectively you can treat you can work out what attracts them and train them and focus on extra addictive characteristics that going by the public face the folks at the commune seemed to have ethical qualms about the misuse of addiction maximizes but nearest as isn't a secret and sooner or later some really unscrupulous sociopaths will try to see how far far they can push it so let me give you specific imaginary scenario Apple put a lot of effort into making real-time face recognition work on the iPhone X and is going to be everywhere on everybody's in another couple of years you can't fool iPhone X with a photo or even a simple mask it does death mapping to ensure your eyes on the right place and can tell whether they're open or closed it recognizes your face from underlying bone structure for makeup and bruises is running continuously checking pretty much as often as every time you take the home button on a more traditional smartphone you why they can see where your eyeballs appointing the purpose of the face recognition system is to provide for real time authenticate continuous authentication when you use it but not just enter a pin or sign a password or use a two-factor authentication bad but the device knows that you are it's authorized use on a continuous basis and if somebody grabs your phone and runs away with it it'll move it it's been stolen immediatly sees the face of the however your phone monitoring of facial expressions and correlating against app usage has other implications your phone will be aware precisely what you like to look at on your screen on its screen we may well have sufficient insight on the part of the phone to identify whether you're happy or sad bored or engaged yeah prediction seeking deep learning tools and neural network generated images those synthetic videos I was talking about it's então in principle entirely possible to be June endlessly escalating payload of arousal inducing inputs it might be Facebook or Twitter messages optimized to produce outrage or it could be porn generated by a i to appeal to King's you don't even consciously know you have but either way the app now owns your central nervous system and you will be monetised and finally like to raise a really hair-raising specter that goes well beyond the use of deep learning and enchanted propaganda propaganda inside the back in 2011 and obscure Russian software house lotion iPhone app for pickup artists called goes around me spoiler Apple pulled it like a hot potato as soon as word got out existed now goes around we works out where the user is using GPS and would query on Facebook for people matching a simple relational search for single females on Facebook the relationship status who have checked in all being checked in by their friends in your vicinity on Foursquare the and then displays their locations on a map along with links to their social media profiles if they were doing it today the interface and became a fight showing strike rates in the leaderboard unflagging targets who succumbed to harassment as easy lay this but these days the cool kids in single adults from using dating acts with missing a valid the name only a creeper would someone something like goes around me right the unfortunately there are much much nasty users and scraping social media to find potential victims the serial rapist does your social media profile indicate your political religious affiliation none can be catalytic can work them out with 99 . 9 % precision anyway so don't worry about that we already have you packed now the service applied and I people's affiliation
location and you have the beginning of a flash mob perhaps 1 will show people like us and people like them on a hyper-local maps imagine you're young female and a supermarket like target has figured out from your purchase patterns that you're pregnant even though you don't know it yet this actually happened in 2011 now imagine that all the anti-abortion campaigners in your town have an app called babies at risk on their phones so is paid to the analytic speed from supermarkets and every time you go near a family planning clinic a group of unfriendly anti-abortion protesters and somehow miraculously show swarm you or mention your mail and gay and the God hates fags crowds invented a 100 lattice and reliable gage are based on your grinder profile and is getting their fellow travellers declared bash gay men only when they're alone all outnumbered by 10 to 1 that's a special horror precise geo-location not only do you always know where you are the AI is no way you are and some of them on friendly or remind you in Pakistan and Christian-Muslim tensions rise rising or in rural Alabama all and under that and of Democrat in the possibilities are endless someone out there is working on this a geo-location aware social media scraping deep learning application we use game if I'd competitive interface to reward its players the joining in acts of mob violence against whether the app developer hey it's probably has innocuous seeming but highly addictive training mode to get the users accustomed to working in teams in band gaps instructions think ingresso poker moment girl then there's some pre-planned 0 hour it switches mode and starts rewarding players of violence players who have been kind to think of their targets as a villain in the steady drip feed of micro targeted dehumanizing propaganda inputs delivered over a period of months I'm always be this big jump is that we have developed it isn't even the nation-state trying to disrupt its enemies on extremist political group trying to murder gaze Jews or Muslims is just a paper clip maximizer doing what it does and you of a paper welcome to the 21st century it thank you thank you questions do the month and we would have any questions the OK so you are doing a Q & a boot so you are doing a age well if there are any questions please come forward to the microphones numbers 1 through 4 and ask at the it OK at the yeah good do you really think it's all we the and so you might think about so going right in units of the source the result in the loss and and know the things it basically I think the problem is that about 3 % of those are sociopaths and psychopaths who's spoil everything to the other 97 cents would be great if somebody could write an apple would identify all the psychopaths among us and let the rest of us just kill them on yeah we have all the tools to make the utopia we have it now today some a bleak miserable Grimme took future is not inevitable but it's up to us to use these tools to prevent the bad stuff happening and to work to do that we have to anticipate the bad outcomes and work to try and figure out a way to deal with that so this talk is I'm trying to do a bit of a wake-up call and get people thinking about how much worse things can get and what we need to do to prevent it from happening what I was saying earlier about regulatory systems being broken stands how do we regulate the deep learning technologies is something we need to think about yeah OK of them make number 2 the time and you don't know so what is this we can see that and you can see that the of some almost literally if you're familiar with philosopher promises souls Chinese Rome paradox 19 seventies by which to prove that artificial intelligence is impossible on the corporation is very much the Chinese room implementation of an AI is a bunch of human beings in a box you put input into the box you that was out of the box doesn't matter whether it's all happening in software of a human being following rules in between to assemble the output I don't see there being much of a difference now you have to look at a company in a very abstract level to viewed as an AI but more and more companies are their internal business processes on you've got to view this as an ongoing trend and yet they have many of the characteristics of an yeah OK you might number 4 I think you that I have probably heard at the time of death and the sign of this the history of the of the kind of various by optimism in the possibility to and investment some you know I knew about dot patterns I knew about people from optimize and I wasn't actually whether were movements against this OK I'm 53 years old I'm out of touch I haven't actually done any serious programming in 15 years on so rusty my rosters rust on it on but you know it is a worrying trend and the actual activism is a good start on some raising awareness of hazards and of what we should be doing about this start and I would have class 1 is i is a moral issue we need to corporations evaluate everything in terms of revenue because it's the equivalent of briefing they have to 3 corporations don't usually have any moral framework with humans we need a moral framework to operate within even if it's as simple as 1st do no harm or do not do unto others that which would be repugnant it was done and to you the golden rule so yeah we should be trying to spread awareness of this about and working with program developers to to remind them that they are human beings and have to be humane and the application of technology is a necessary stopped I think you know like 3 I guess I get this especially in this sort of crowd tended don't just get out of phase the solution and there's a lot of these things that are really really scary but what worries me is how we use the silence ourselves when we that after the election I actually get back on this that because women's marked with loosely organized in case that I might be I think we need a lot more regulation but we can't just throw it out with this so if you only really that we have right now to express herself that on the house absolutely and I have made a point of not really using Facebook for many many many years of the Facebook page simply to shut up the young marketing people might publisher these proper every 2 years and say that we have Facebook in Facebook now had a blog since 1993 um but no 1 I'm gonna have to use Facebook because these days not using face because I'm not using e-mail and you're cutting off your nose to spite your face on what we really do need to be doing is looking for some form of effective oversight of Facebook and particularly of having the algorithms that show you content are written what I was saying earlier about how algorithms and not some of us transparent as human beings do people applies hugely to them and both Facebook and Twitter control the information they display to you OK I'm momentarily sorry for the people queuing up the mikes nowhere of time on what else have to apologize i knows that this talk was being held in English but it was being held in English thank you very much much the role and the very much less than 3 thanks be to find is that
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Metadaten

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Titel Dude, you broke the Future!
Serientitel 34th Chaos Communication Congress
Autor Stross, Charles
Lizenz CC-Namensnennung 4.0 International:
Sie dürfen das Werk bzw. den Inhalt zu jedem legalen Zweck nutzen, verändern und in unveränderter oder veränderter Form vervielfältigen, verbreiten und öffentlich zugänglich machen, sofern Sie den Namen des Autors/Rechteinhabers in der von ihm festgelegten Weise nennen.
DOI 10.5446/34909
Herausgeber Chaos Computer Club e.V.
Erscheinungsjahr 2017
Sprache Englisch

Inhaltliche Metadaten

Fachgebiet Informatik
Abstract We're living in yesterday's future, and it's nothing like the speculations of our authors and film/TV producers. As a working science fiction novelist, I take a professional interest in how we get predictions about the future wrong, and why, so that I can avoid repeating the same mistakes. Science fiction is written by people embedded within a society with expectations and political assumptions that bias us towards looking at the shiny surface of new technologies rather than asking how human beings will use them, and to taking narratives of progress at face value rather than asking what hidden agenda they serve. In this talk, author Charles Stross will give a rambling, discursive, and angry tour of what went wrong with the 21st century, why we didn't see it coming, where we can expect it to go next, and a few suggestions for what to do about it if we don't like it.
Schlagwörter Art & Culture

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