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A hacker's guide to Climate Change - What do we know and how do we know it?

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thank you and
and and a a and a and the and and welcome date or so as they say who fail alright and I'm having the honor and a pleasure to introduce you treat people here for the 1st lecture and say who will start she's a PhD and doing a PhD concerning environmental to to his basic in which university back right um I notice here that for some people climate change seems to be just news that's passing my for from other states that bit more fake news someone this morning called and even the he called for some good old global warming I noticed and I think we all need to reconsider solutions or otherwise we could end up in a kind of a lot couple and words you please give welcome applause thank any everyone is working the 3rd they really health and as the was just not just about on a I'm fantastic come to the talk about climate change why am I here not c the Congress and I talked to some friends about climate change and how a lot of questions really basic questions and a lot of open issues and I'm Mondays about maghemite the surroundings everyone is working with this we know a lot of this and uh it was not clear to me that there's a lot of need for information of there so I prepared to talk and apparently was really really but so no I'm here and I'll show you about the basis of climate change and I will invite you to become part of a kind of conspiracy was so what are the basics we have to use 2 bodies
in space there's the sun and there is a planet or a rock and they don't have any way of interacting with the with each other with each other apart from that to memory to radiation you can see here there is sort of a lot of distance between the 2 and the only interaction possible is light what
is like about almost you know you can deconstruct light into its components you can see a rainbow if you use visible light for that as you can see here with a prisoner and if we do that
for some light are we see that so there's a large maximize indivisible with current in the green to be exact and of course that's not a coincidence and 0 there's also a large part that we cannot see that's on the right as long tail let's infrared light you can feel as warmth and on the forehead lattice short-sighted there's a bit of info uh ultraviolet radiation that is harmful to the skin so this is what arrives at the top of the atmosphere and this kind of spectral you can see at the bottom is the wave length which is a parameter that is the energy of a light and you're going to see that a lot of useful on the other axis you have the intensity of the light so a lot while higher values mean a lot to low values mean only little and this is a New Spectral that's and being taken on the ISS where they have money for this spectra for over 9 years all the time to see the changes within 1 solar cycle so this is a very important area of research to see how this changes so some if done physics before you have probably seen this kind of form before if this form on
mates given by Planck's or plants and plant co-founders small in about 1900 and it is the relationship between the temperature of the body and the radiation that comes out of it we see that everybody that has a temperature higher than 0 kelvin so nothing In its energy you can feel it when you touch 1 when you touch anything you can feel less some radiation going off and if it becomes warmer it it's something in the forage the gradients of more energy so this is the relationship I put the formula and bottom don't be surprised um at the same time a few of do the derivation the to see whether maximum you can see that this is simply it's simply inverse to temperature and as you can see here there's a body that's very hot it's a 2000 calendar there's a body that's only 1500 calvino and a body that is only a thousand kelvin and you see that it gets less but the maximal 2 shifts so why is this interesting that's
look at the temperatures of the sun and the temperature we have at the time this editors in Python and I'm this title so it's close enough and find some you can see here that you can see nothing that is going up and you can see there's a a to the power of minus 7 on the on the right site and so that means that there is a large difference in intensity between use those 2 bodies yeah but what is really interesting is this part there is almost no overlap between these 2 spectra say the radiation coming off of the sun and the radiation coming off the plane of the as they are very very different in energy why is this interesting and we can now calculate the temperature the the US would have it would if it was like just like this simple energy of equilibrium and there's another param we need because the spectrum that the thermal radiation spectrum describes the sun fairly well the not so well and the reason is that the earth also reflects light and the ratio between the incoming light and the reflected light is called the the door and just to demonstrate this I put an object with
higher albedo and an object with no ID do here and you can see 1 of them absorbs all incoming light and the other 1 reflects all incoming light and so you can imagine that the person who is here with a low albedo will become very warm after some time and also start for a year after radio out of heat and you can imagine that the wavelength they will radiate off if they didn't have internal energy whatever it will be different has another view of about 0 . 3
30 % of a radiation coming from from the Sun is better infected off and you can see here I put the green dot there and I put these being darts at places where we have a chance to change parametres concerning the system so if you see a green dots and if you don't you just think about what should we do to chase parameters of the system to to change what's going on so he is 1 1 chance we have some something that has high high the on earth no fresh snow reflects about 90 % of incoming light something that is stock is the ocean the reflects only about 10 % of incoming light so you can imagine that is I saw on the ocean goes away any open seas there you get a change in this reflected value at the same time you can just paint stuff white and you also get a change so if we add this
together we get a temperature of minus 15 degrees on the planet this is not true you know this unhappy is not true the and the reason is that we have an atmosphere why does it have to do it can interact with
light there's a law you that's been found by Lambert and bear 2 different people he found parts of its at different times 17 29 1852 as you can see and it describes how light is absorbed in the gas or anybody I put the formula here because it's a very easy and telling me that there is an exponential decrease in the light and it depends on 3 parameters it depends on the distance that light travels in the gas it depends on the density of the gas so how much how many molecules of the gas and its wrote and as a parameter called the money it's the absorption coefficient and this is gas dependent it's also constant so doesn't change every time it doesn't change change a little problem with pressure and a little with temperature would not really and we measure this in that so this is a very well researched law and you can also researchers in up if you want and the hackerspace or whatever it's really easy so what are the consequences of this I brought you a
picture of N O 2 united diesel scandal gas on a very healthy so don't with in and you can see different concentrations here we have almost nothing up to very high concentration and you can see that it gets darker and darker I also the absorption coefficient dollar and also look painted with colors the the wavelengths you can see as you can see on there's a lot of sourcing going on in the blue way French Rafe range wavelength range and not a lot in the red wavelength range and these images are linked if you had to guess from the plot in which color the gasses but you should be able to do that now you can say it's reddish because the red can pass through says the we have this effect in the atmosphere we have gas that absorbs in the infrared but not in the visible as final calculation again now we have another here there
is a 100 % of light coming in from the top it goes down to the atmosphere at 30 % as a said before is already reflected back so this there's no consensus all unless we want to change it but can't arm and 47 per cent I've sort by the ground the ground heats up you can feel those if you put your hand on the stone when it's sunny the and the rest is already going into the atmosphere now what does the gas actually do as you can see on about 12 % can make it through all of the of the infrared light like a lower wavelength with with a with a very long way French wavelength and there it can go through but a lot of it kind of goes through it will be absorbed by the atmosphere immediately so the list layer of the earth heats up it becomes more on as well so it starts to radiate as well depending on the temperature radiates of a different wavelength ranges and a different intensities but it's still going to be in the uh absorption area so that the wavelength that gas absorbs it's also going to unit I'm going to show you later and this effect also stacks to further layers so the next layer of the atmosphere will also observe some of the light coming from the downwards direction it will heat up it will start to radiators radiation is going I the all directions so apart will go back down and in the end you get a mean uh radiation level of about 97 % of the incoming sunlight going back down so what twice the level of the sunlight that reaches the ground the that is coming back down from the atmosphere again and if you run the calculation that you can just run the Sun's here you can see that 144 % of light I actually radiated out saying D. black body temperature that you get at the Earth is higher than it would be without atmosphere we have about 15 degrees celsius this is the real temperature we have so this is actually very nice effect we call this the greenhouse effect the natural greenhouse effect and it's useful for life on earth because it protects us I can show
you the same thing in spectra the top spectrum she's the black body radiation off the ground so you can see very smooth uh you can also run the calculation that you get the same plot in the next part you get the downwards radiation so the gas absorbs in the parts that are elevated here and do it and it 1st and heats up and in its again so this coming down this is what you can see if you if you measure the light coming down and at the same time this and NATO and so the difference between the plots there is the the button part and you can see that there's a window where the light can go out and parts where nothing nothing almost nothing of a light makes it out I also know well the plot has marked the greenhouse gasses that acts here you can see that a large 1 is water H 2 O ozone also plays a significant role here and there's your 2 is a large part so the question is what happens if we change the concentrations of these gasses the what happens in fact is that but let me see that this part here gets broader and this despite years gets smaller so in the outgoing radiation is less so the grantees up it's a bit more complicated than that of course if you run the calculations know of changes in the vertical a profile but that's the basic and at the current level we have about 0 . 8 1 per square meter of energy coming in that's not going out rule he is an advanced
concept I just wanted to show you briefly it's also connected to you the black body temperature at the same time I tells you about the black body temperature of different layers of the atmosphere you can see that in the window you can actually see the ground the ground has a mean temperature of 15 degrees and you can see um in that and the outgoing radiation here that the radiation you matter from space you can see that you can see that the photons from the ground at the same time in the Water Absorption areas which 2 year you can see that it's about minus 30 degrees this light comes from an area where the let the air is minus 30 degrees so you in the stratosphere already the what 80 top off the the whatever some at the same time you can see that ozone comes at minus 10 degrees that's the top of the stratosphere so the top of the ozone layer end of we have few 2 which comes from a from a level of minus 55 degrees so you can see here which height the light comes from and that which later the areas transparent for this wavelength ranges so this is a bit complicated you can ask me later about each of that's keep going
with increase of gas in the atmosphere this is the current plot all my this pull this from the monologues arbitrary page of in 1 guess I on you can see that they have a continuous record since the 19 sixties to today and their current level in September was fond 2 ppm parts per million and as you can see that is oscillating this is due to the fact that the hemispheres have summers and winters and the north have a lot of plants the itself doesn't have a lot of ground so it doesn't have so many times and the plants respirate morning summer and winter so you can actually see the plant level the plant life here OK so what do we do with this
we can run a very simple calculation from what I showed you before and you know know everyone everything you need to run a very simple plan model if we increase this to level twice you can get a temperature increase of 1 . 2 degrees Celsius the now if you compare that to the increase he had already back from the past it you can see that there's a mismatch there so what is happening is that there's a lot of feedback mechanisms we have our energy coming in the energy can melt water cannot melt ice change your view of the earth it can generate more Klaus there's more energy will more water can be evaporated more clout can be generated it changes the albedo changes the of going energy the and level and the temperature gradient is so there's a lot of feedback mechanisms and we come to a result of about 0 . 0 1 . 5 to 4 . 5 degrees celsius from this spot you see there's an error range there will put up later some we call this concept planet sensitivity and assess how the climate system reacts to a doubling of this you to content the next talk so
the question is we have too much energy going in now because the sun I gave us energy and it's not going out anymore because there's a barrier then also where did it go so far I already told you that there is a class of all . 8 1 per square meter coming in but we don't have a heating that corresponds to this value so where did the energy go so far I've talked about basic laws basic physics laws you can easily measure in your lab that physics is all over the world measure every year and so far didn't find a mistake now I'm going to talk about measurements that's fits together with this result that we have an energy overlap energy over too much energy so um where is the energy go so far it seems to go into the ocean about 93 % all the energy go so far I went into the ocean this plot shows you a few datasets that all have the same the conclusion of the upper layer of the ocean that's top part but 1 job the Nowhere layer the deep ocean also wars and that's a law plot so this is where the energy goes so far
he is another place where the energy goes it's a plot that shows the ice extent on the Arctic on the top In an annual away and the lower part shows its is all for different months and it's different datasets different colors different datasets and you can see they all agree it's going down so here's another sink of energy for us the and if we add these together
they is the expansion of water due to heat you know things that up to expand and there is the extension of water content due to ice melting that's the lower 2 curves and if you add them together they felt that to very nicely the 2 of the curves that shows the measured increase in sea level so in this follows from very basic physics this is the the energy is going the if you don't
know if police but as yet I have more cats I'm not going to discuss the details of this if you plot here that correspond to air temperatures so I mark them with air and there's a few a plus that God corresponding to the temperatures and sea ice the temperatures the content and the snow and ice also there and you can see they all agree we have 2 datasets a minimum and up to 7 datasets here they all agree say you the data is also there so what we know so far the basic physics the tells us that an increase in any of a greenhouse gasses will lead to an increase in temperature this feedback mechanisms and we don't all exactly very very exactly what that the because there's an arranged on the time sensitivity and we see that the data shows an increase in energy uptake in the system that
where do we go from here we have to run models so what we do as we know we use the basic physics last the we parametrize the earth and we try to calculate the response of the system now I only discussed very very basic things here and there's a lot more impact factors on the farmers you can talk to me later if you want to discuss this no problem on the main ones here are errors also so particles in the air that shield the heat water incoming light a little there's clouds that can change this ozone and the chemistry that awful is a kind of gas and can also shield light and of course the emissions of greenhouse gasses and aerosols resort which also not knowing for the future a few more of their so it's a complex system we're trying to model this the that some things are still unknown something's might be a noble because we're talking about a chaotic system here the the it's clear however that we have this energy of energy surplus and that it's going somewhere say you there will be consequences of its physical consequences and physical consequence also mean that there will be consequences for people on earth and my colleague will know my likely will it would tell you more about that so if you have any questions about the time system and of the basic physics or the data just come talk to me you can also read the IPCC report it has a lot of plots a lot of plants and you can learn anything you want to know where the data from there also so to check it out be it
OK at and I have said you know fairly well about greenhouses vaccinations known and well with some confidence we can also projects the temperature on average on for the next coming decades of course that depends on how we come amid further greenhouse gasses so if you continue emitting will probably end up while at about 4 additional degrees celsius if we were managed to the to mitigate the lots of 4 emissions we might you managed to get below 2 degrees what what does that mean while 1 of the most
well known impacts of climate change is sea level rise like I just said the mechanism there is not simple but at least easy to understand because when in seed updates plants that gives the contribution to sea level rise and of course as the temperature increases will melt snow and ice is especially in the glaciers on Greenland's and or not under article so
knowing the temperature we can also predicts quite well on the the the to level rise that we are you have to expect in the coming decades until the end of the century and will might end up at 1 meter sea level rise on average Bob maybe man below that but all these things that we set in motion there the melting of the ice is is actually quite slow process so he after 2 thousand 100 even after we have emitted evening maybe after humanity has ceased to exist the ice so melting and several additional meters of sea level rise are expected to to them yeah to read their the wall bookies summarize on probably affects coasts and islands but what is the warming itself to with the
economy you how does the economy reacts on that our climate change of course that's a very difficult question to answer but we can start with kind of simple observations so
this is from a from the recent study by scientists in California who looked who looked
at the the we looked at the change in GDP per capita that is kind of like the average income of person has in the country I'm not in the last 50 decades and try to find the relation to the annual average temperature there so in there they can't of course for a specific variables that the countries have the poor of the rich to begin with and what they find is kind of view shapes a relationship between those 2 so while OK if you know the annual average temperature how does all that affects the and the GDP per capita but but it OK let's try to extrapolate that the that
they find that world regions that our them already warm kind of like the joint the curve so even go down the slope when additional warming curse and colder countries but actually benefit because they get up the curve was telling simple on the econometric model so just accounts for the direct impact of 2 temperature on to economic activity and if you can really extrapolate that from a cleric change we don't know yet another very important number that is some
discussed in some climates economics is the so-called so-called social cost of carbon because you might ask well if you it's an additional tons of C T 2 or another from greenhouse gas what damages does that and what does that mean along the roads so if you think of 8
simple coupling of and economic and the climate models so we can say that OK the economy produces but leads to emissions the emissions in the climate system the 2 2 0 1 2 0 temperature change and similar to the to the relationship I just showed you the UN on every temperature change might some come with a damage so we put in there is simple damage function that gives us depending on the addition of temperature additional damages on the economy we can run that in the model and then we ask well let's put 1 additional turn the of you 2 in there how many of them damages to reject additionally along the route informal way that actually that 0 if meant the amount of carbon at that at t you know the temperature reacts so this relationship is given by the climate model in the model this temperature change then leads to a change in climate damages this is given by the damage function and then we just sum of all these damages that the core along the wrote them due to this carbon emissions and some that up but for this done in ergonomics on very common there is discounting that is just basically was of facts if I offer you 10 euros in year you'll probably prefer me to offer you 10 years for tomorrow so you you value these 10 euros tomorrow more than those in the year this is so this devaluation of the future in comparison to the present is given by the social discount rate how does it look like with you and this kind of model well depending on the time on the year and the emission so far in the model we get some damage this is 1 of the famous model dice it's actually quite simple and some we merely come to trying to make it more accessible for people who know Python 2 and play around with that but but we can start with a sort of this coverage in here which is normally useful with 1 . 5 % in that model so that means the kind of gray out the future and away from the symbolic point of view now so you should care more about the damages here then here but if we increase the social discount rate this bring out because more and more into the present so that we actually with 7 % is conveyed we don't really very much care about the end of the century but more about the few 0 1 and 2 decades to come well always that important it is very important it is this these kinds of models are very very sensitive to the social discount rate this wall if you don't value the damages along the roads as much as the images tomorrow of course we have the estimate is over and we probably don't care so much but the about the overall
social cost of carbon so the state of 1 . 5 % of discomfort we start with 20 dollars per ton and up to over 100 in 2 thousand 100 the peculiar thing about that is that the US government actually uses these kinds of numbers is in the 19 eighties they established a law demanding all of federal agencies to make it benefit analysis of their actions and if those involved carbon emissions in the way they have to take into account the social cost of carbon so it's a very political number in that way n the company the year 1 at station used this social discovered which is more like 3 % and came up with lots of models in average around 45 dollars per ton now at the time the administration's which has cover different goal there from decided to have was was command of 7 % and only look at the images in the US and not on the whole globe so they come up with only a couple of dollars per ton so in the end this stuff discussion still ongoing and very much comes down to an ethical questions this occurs at the question of how much do you evaluate the damages that future generations will have to cope with in comparison to the images that we have to cope with OK still business very simple economic model and with a very simple climate model in there so totally neglects another very important kinds of impacts and those are extreme weather events it
seemed that the events are much more difficult of course to model in comparison to looking at these and temperature increases on average but so the discussion for example for her games is still going on if they get more frequent and more intense but as catcher to you due to climate change will have more energy in the whole Earth system as so we'll probably get also more energy the hurricanes especially since they feed from the from the from what the the heat of water under there and as well as they needs a certain temperature to exist on the ocean surface so if do you have from the oceans warm they might even cover a large area so just as an active
nodes in the last hurricane season the hurricane of failure now reached Europe and thus really get off the charts of the grid so that the US the Hurricane center users well you've only answered all about other
kinds of impacts which reflects and drops and also here I'm the basic physics at least councils that's if the their wants it can hold more moisture and so went regions probably was it even wetter on the other hand it's hot and dry regions warming probably also get drive what does it mean for society
while indirect effects of society are displacement and migration just as an example in 2015 whether related events alone displaced 15 million people across the globe displacing means while they might have to move well to their neighbors or they might have to move to the next village or they might even have to move across all in all we know that these kinds of impacts and these changes in the current system will put this high dissimilar from the additional pressure so societies that are already prone to the effort rights for example or were in or are not very stable in the political system probably are also the going to experience more conflicts but this discussion of the relationship some to climate change is still on-going but at least we know the pressure on the societies is going to increase well and you might say OK how and why do we care why do we care in Europe you might be able to cope with them with slots because we're rich come comparison to the rest of the world find all the
world is increasingly interconnected economically so supply chains of corporations nowadays note this across several countries and or trade relations get stronger and stronger so even if there isn't any events among the events happening for example you probably experience some effects of that down the roads that might go from price changes but also to supply failures through also suffer from the images what not
and and this was long became great OK so next so let's have a look at and global emissions so this um global greenhouse gasses over time the red line and yet we can see that's clearly the have been Wallace steadily rising over the past decades and ingrained we can see on the range of projected emissions from the climate action plans of countries so if some plans on that determine contributions short and he sees a part of the Paris Agreement Process and each country individually determines what I wanted to and to reduce emissions as the ranger so why because each country um Mitchell plans difficult to assess some countries lights uh there you might rely on physical economy grows for example 1 country might only give out and the target is the ritual to reach another country might have difficulties switching it for example Germany is levied on track to reach the 2020 goal and if you compare the this range was that the range of would be required to stay below 2 or even 1 . 5 degrees we can clearly see that not and even close to that so in green and violet you can see these wages the than so what should we
do maybe should we start having the planets if not reducing emissions fast enough geoengineering as a topic that has been um why he discusses the past years and especially last months and
weeks so the loss of articles in The New Yorker The Economist and why all dish because and also the he also published warning
reports and um of course scientists also um published many studies and yeah so why is
it important to talk about them didn't removing uh emissions from and removing coming directly from the atmosphere that practically part of all was they used to assess 7 of the charter so stable to the degrees so here's 1 stylized and scenario is the red line as the missions parsley and brawlers um yeah area shows the pseudo emissions and emissions from other greenhouse gasses and bills alive and blue we see emissions that are being removed so negative emissions disease negative emissions getting um larger than what we meant it as you can see at the end of the century that Rio might you be reducing to 2 concentrations in the atmosphere again the so can we do that one easy way is to simply plant lots of trees afforestation and make sure that history limited cut off all on and other more technical approach that this part of all these scenarios of most of the scenarios the technological expects spent extent biology
with carbon capture and storage that basically means them using by adding in this field are already doing so um planting crops of fast-growing books and then transported these biomass to a power station bodies if you and capturing the carbon that has the release again and so on the building process and then storing this column enjoy logical starts as deep underground so the sounds like a great idea and if you think it through that means there's a lot electricity you produce
was um was specs also to you you move from the atmosphere of so if you were driving a car um that the polyp electricity from begs the more you draw your cards are more so to you you moved but of course at a technology doesn't come without its disadvantages so to we make a
difference and it would require a huge areas of land so in some scenarios can be up to the size of 1 or 2 times that of India so you see in the uh um over Europe it's clear that having so much um additional land use and farming that requires would not be without problems so that would certainly be competition was um food production to potentially rising food prices and it's not easy to accuse them such large amounts of bioenergy without heavy fertilizer use search engines potentially using and biodiversity loss and all the problems that we already have what's them sustainably producing the things in every culture another problem is that we need to
and move all the biomass that leads to the power stations and then we need to um transporters pseudo that years and captured to decides what can be stored so that would require building a huge um network of pipelines and it seems likely that few people want us you to perform the backyard and also a lot of its you to start site and effect and already in japanese our um and some federal States that's for the loss of regulation against having such sites because nobody wants yeah so carbon dioxide removal like texts is a technology that directly um works of art text see you there may think also of climate change so reducing carbon emissions there exist other geoengineering ideas that walk more um against the impacts of the soul
and 1 of these this already management and more specifically and stratospheric aerosol injection the idea here is to mimic what happens to ago volcanic eruptions and through that is on the 1st part from culture to reflect back from incoming sunlight so that doesn't reach the us of course was a volcanic eruption them as a
sum the reduced temperatures after a couple of years so we would have to artificially using airplanes bring small particles into the stratosphere and was basically forever and this also points to the new 1 of the main challenges of this proposal if he at some point would have to stop and just for technological or economic or maybe war reason but also the global warming that of few master prevented by this technology with then quickly be added to the bombing the got anyway and it seems so the better and fast termination shock like this slow gradual temperature rise another problem is that and who
gets to decide about about the optimal global temperature that could be set and some other countries is the people would accept a higher temperature and some people in low-lying islands that the by sea-level rise of but rather temper tries to stop immediately and looking at the current and
climate negotiations process it seems unlikely that would be uh that agreement font a short time another
idea that's um loss the comic book story for my ADH work took most of his pictures from was to simply freeze water to reduce and sea level so he Uncle coach them what to profit from a volcanic eruption that it's all large and cooling stations that in all the south pole and then have lower temperature and freeze the water again to have wide stretches of land across a calls to build totals there or do farming and make a profit the story it internal so well
but in fact family of scientists in the last years there have looked what it would take to pump water back onto an article and let it freezes again to uh prevents the arise in another study looked what it would take to rebuild stock 2 guys and most studies use with power to the to do this it turned out that it's quite difficult and also um quite energy-intensive so far and article it would require about 7 to 14 cent of global primary energy production to pump balls what a back so it seems
all these approaches are either the expense of all potentially dangerous nobles so what should we do with these geoengineering ideas certainly we should continue research
and some but we should also be very careful how their friends who was proposing them which billionaires might be findings and how other advertise that they can also be an indicator of what's planned to do so plant engineering is also a term widely used some state should rather be intervention and as any myself I would like to agree because spending is to usually quite boring and then 2 systems that are in the uh well understood and easy to model to term solar radiation management was actually quite to a avoid using geoengineering was which was already a loaded term it was later tried to replace the mediation was reflection but it didn't stick other scientists have argued that it could should the top management at all because I'm not merging of process that we don't understand completely which should rather be called albedo modification or even hacking cocktail geoengineering as another example of a fancy name was given a modeling study were to due to approaches were combined carbon dioxide removal is I think a pretty descriptive good name and negative emissions well armed emissions always kind of negative so
let's look back at so all emissions trajectory if you want to be really sure that we can stay below 2 or even 1 . 5 degrees above preindustrial warming you should be reducing emissions much faster because if these technologies don't work with the 1 of successful and the fermenting backs that we have a problem so we should take more action it's so young have to do
something but the question is what so it all
work we work a lot of emissions data historical emissions standards and the political process and we try to make this as openly as possible because without open data we can't judge what countries are doing and whether we are on the right track we used to but a notebook center by the project to make some as Maria explorable and easily usable as possible so go check them out
here's 1 example variances at emissions dataset which gives us you to emissions um by seconds so for Germany we see here the power sector transport and buildings buildings looks pretty much OK so there's at least the downward trend visible so it could go further I mean we have particles houses as a technology transport doesn't we look like it's making progress so we need more electric
cars and fewer cars general but if you
look at the statistics on last month's there we can see that there were 300 thousand newly registered cars in Germany and there were 50 thousand a series and only 3 cell electric cars so it's really not heading into the right direction and this is a political and decision that was made so was Germany who prevented spam stricter emissions regulations forecast the ripping you in a couple of years ago and the
same goes for the power sector or the could
be building um wind power plants and solar panels much faster than we do it's a blicket political decision to the filters as fast as you can he has some data
from the smart room platform which shows so transfer Germany bench a couple of days ago we actually met all energy or to electricity demand was when you will sources and some nuclear energy so we could have switched off their lead upon the stain but as the Stern and if we want to uh reach this or less many days we need more capacity and also storage and building construction of fully
decentralized fair smart grids is very um hot task much I think we have to do it and I think it's these uh moving at this Congress and then passed as the world as we saw great talks that describe some of the challenges the and yet 1st level let
for yeah yeah and so even if we manage to things on a per cent renewables all we have to think about efficiency and I think this is also where people were interested in harder and softer come into as these ICT technologies get more and more some common and popular but the for you just as an example with cryptocurrencies and they have a built-in inefficiency so we kind of have to find a way to still stick to these kind of decentralized systems which you're fascinating technology but on the other hand to find a way to get that running results in energy demand that is for Bitcoin itself in some numbers going out to the electricity consumption of Denmark a nice
example of which is more like packing the system making the social system is the divestment movement so the idea is here to to also view in monetary flows so getting investors persuading investors not to invest in 2 companies that are carbon intensive but to bring the portfolio just as an example this movement was that kind of successful recently when they when they managed to persuade the Norwegian government to divest the from the the Norwegian pension funds on all companies that rely on 30 % CO or more but of course us as consumers as individuals here also investors in
way with our daily decisions so we should just keep that in mind when traveling in our diets but estimates that there's another
1 solution to the kind of problem or probably have to think that very holistically from the individual to politics and so we also need a policy and politics political regulations that demand from business to some to some get green and as as a last example I think
in a democratic states like ours we're as citizens almost obliged to protests when we think things are going wrong on this just as a last example the time and the delay in the movement that now grows from year to year where people block from lignite mining production that is still going on in Germany though we claim to the quite renewable already so to some other up 2
lots and well we know everything about climate change and but we know definitely enough to act thank you very much thank you for your kind of and and the but please um thank you for analyzing as about climate change and climate system and of the ways to hack it if time certain question so if you would approach Birch microphone and with sick yes please go to I have question do make calculations what is the real emission also electric cars in Germany because there are some countries in Europe when electric car in fact these cold tolerant car and when comparative emissions from these electric car powered by coal it's 2 times greater than the emissions from normal guzzling cars we don't work thing on this but this is a very good question and um I agree you need to take this into account cells for except electricity map but or quick and see what the current emissions are from a country so you could should launch your car what it's porpoise and you will see another question at my number 2 all thank you there was a question that there was a statement that the whole point and each of them what's per square meter hit the earth how could you say look more Bob assuming them I can see how if you look at the whole graph together and the sun is always shine on 1 side so if you discount side and really mad and we look but doesn't get more mass over the years so this is like a yearly average of what is 0 . 8 remain so yearly average of course while we have about 350 watts per square meter coming in from the sun so you can relate to that and this so that is going back our right back out from the simulation of the of and ideally you have an equilibrium and it's only in equilibrium over of the year and in equilibrium over a day is not there and the space also is not in a clear anomaly you have a lot of emissions during the polar nite that's a lot of stuff going out In and at the same time there's a lot of uh energy coming in at the equator so this is actually a mean value yeah of course good to know this lady here please shit and so thank thank you very talk um so I guess the earth has its own and temperature changing cycles like we had ice agents of which were natural climate change occurrences so how much at a direction know how much of that good old climate change is caused by man the right now the we do have numbers for about yes on various 1 current parameter that is not inference by human men that's the sun and intensities of what's coming in and the Sun has been getting a little bit brighter I If you make adds to the components that make up the time change there's a very nice map in uh wearing a chart in the IPCC report and you can see that there's I have to guess that it's a few per cent verification and that is made up about yes but most of that is actually really due to changes In the greenhouse gas content this some changes in land use that's all sort of important Mr. has actually including the earth because we have been replacing forest with farmland say that reflects of more at the same time uh we have all these greenhouse gas coming out from farming so that's the main components Ali we can talk later about that if you want have to remind was well that we can give feedback fire before upon the and so on it's just so take and 1 other question here but so we're out of time we have in 15 minutes and on lecture regarding climate change so we're going the shoot so uh don't hesitate it's not I think it's a very simple question irony text and so we have a minute ago we talked about equilibrium states but what this definitely not an equilibrium is and exponentially growing economic economy and so my question is do you think that the climate problem could be solved inside walk along with exponentially growing economy so because I adopted while this is pretty much comes down to the question is if there is something like green growth and so on I personally belief that it is not possible with the grows proof that feared that very experienced and that that it that we have experience of recurrent is experiencing to really get to cover neutral society from so I think wall is most often people in a very optimistic of technology solutions that say OK we can people are lifestyles we can keep on the way that we live in that we organized society and economy and still get down to 0 emissions I'm not I personnel not that optimistic from about 1st discussions about the growth for example or a steady state economy and not very common in climate and the research unfortunately my name 7 there in real life that I and you told about the possibilities to reduce climate change and they all have trade-offs and costs but then this crush on animal agricultural really quickly and I myself can't see what's what are the costs there could you please comment on that this little or do you mean but you need to know agriculture seems to be the odd 1 out in this In this series of things you can do because I can't I myself can't see any caused by just stopping to farm animals I 1 the very of course that not not every possible solution or a thing we can do it does have to come with a cost but um office again of just brush to that and that British comes although I think down to 2 those societal discussion and how we want to treat animals and how our standard of living or how or what you used to needs is actually I'm how much you value that over for example on climate change you isn't sufficient OK and me my number to the very last question of right and uh think you my question uh uh is about the climate modeling so 1 of the least crazy the skepticism so I've heard was fired on physicist Freeman Dyson who doubted that of basically the effect of increased carbon in the atmosphere on plant growth would be sufficiently modeled and theorize that the more carbon would mean foster plant growth and regarding the feedback loops that were mentioned would be 1 example of of of the damn thing the blue feedback loop rather than reinforcing feedback loop a yes that's true that's 1 of the few that use and it is modeled there are papers all there that actually measure plant the proconsul greenhouse and put C. O. 2 there and measure how fast they grow and the part that was missing from the 19 97 % that went into the that went into the ocean so far is supposed to be taken out probably by the biosphere miniature so this is included in the model and the question is how well it is included in the model on and these and insecurities these unknowns always created of that of narrow range so what you do is you put the bottom permitting you put permitting and few in between me and you see what happens on but yes we're working on that this just not enough as far as we see is not enough to offset the problem it only has a talk about later history the thank you a reason uses the warmup walls and refer to thes was was it
that the would MIT and the and if the the act but at the at
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Metadaten

Formale Metadaten

Titel A hacker's guide to Climate Change - What do we know and how do we know it?
Untertitel An introduction to the basics of climate research and what we can do about climate change
Serientitel 34th Chaos Communication Congress
Autor Bigge, Katja (seyru)
Willner, Sven
Gieseke, Robert
Lizenz CC-Namensnennung 4.0 International:
Sie dürfen das Werk bzw. den Inhalt zu jedem legalen Zweck nutzen, verändern und in unveränderter oder veränderter Form vervielfältigen, verbreiten und öffentlich zugänglich machen, sofern Sie den Namen des Autors/Rechteinhabers in der von ihm festgelegten Weise nennen.
DOI 10.5446/34885
Herausgeber Chaos Computer Club e.V.
Erscheinungsjahr 2017
Sprache Englisch

Inhaltliche Metadaten

Fachgebiet Informatik
Abstract Climate change has long ceased to be news to many people, but it is increasingly shaping humanity's reality. This talk sheds light on the changes in the climate system and their consequences. We introduce the basics and discuss possible actions in response.
Schlagwörter Science

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