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Simulating the future of the global agro-food system

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the and the and the if you wanna puIled Paul don't have been in the old bull and used the few little researchers to publish the Institute for people I might impact research and he's designing quantitative computer model and you'll when the Trojan 5 assimilation so it's like civilización apes mall was more realistic and what we can learn from it and what how we can use and you would ya know yeah the Haitian um what we're doing there is we're doing uh own computer simulations um of all kind of uh sciences from natural sciences to social sciences um but it is the campus is actually a long history already of science so it used to be Odessa Physical Institute at it as a physical of symmetry and metrological observatory and quite a few experiments were carried out there so we um uh there was the value made measure the value of gravity the 1st earthquake was recorded on some uh equations of the relativity theory of the field equations were solved uh man in this form Institute since 1990 now uh meets the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and what you can see nicely yeah these buildings are still there and the old cupolas which show which have inside of which used to have inside large telescopes and these telescopes are a bit as symbol for the
1st um scientific revolution of the 1st Copernican revolution and which happens about 400 years ago and the scientific revolution was sparked by it the technical development of lenses which allowed to use to use a microscope sort telescopes and use of opened up a new field of research because that he could see things which were quite small even larger you could see the see things in detail and you suddenly had a view inside the you complexity both inside a cell or inside of our universe some scholars argue that today now we're living in the 2nd uh Copernican revolution and this
2nd Copernican Revolution was triggered by the development of so called microscopes probably nobody of you ever heard this word because it's invented and the translators um but um maybe you can think what it means to kind of the inverse of a microscope instead of showing you things in more detail actually does the reverse it shows you things in less detail which reduces the complexity of the real world and this is something that is really necessary because the complexity of the real word is sometimes overwhelming and if you want to make decisions we sometimes need simpler versions of the real world to understand them so how can a microscope looked like was the 1st approach is quite straightforward if you want to see something in less detail you just goes to go 1 step back or to step back or even further
uh so 1 option is a satellite from out of this if you look from a satellite on the Earth you can see at the macro development on the planets and uh well things that you can see is 1st of all there is is quite a beautiful planet but you can also see um what's happening on the planet right now that's uh streets are going into pristine forests that we're burning down the forests all over the world and that it nighttime the still illuminated by electric lights from the cities and you can see how strongly we already shape to the way the planet looks like today you can clearly see that we are now living already in the Anthropocene as 2nd option to see at the data system in the reduced form is you can rebuild
it in a smaller scale the this has been had led is has been carried out in the 19 nineties with the Biosphere 2 experiment uh my it's basically a whole the system in a glass house in a confined glasshouse which has a notion which has a rain forest and the deserts and also human scientist living living and you can see it as a successful failure in a way that's uh man after a very short time already at whole ecosystem collapse the fish in the oceans diet um their ecosystems were run over by cockroaches and ends the CO 2 levels rosy industry in the um and that the scientists which were basically confined in this uh my world where the court will be getting quite high ingredients to withstand of experiments they actually had to import food from outside of the system so it's not as easy to rebuild such a nervous system and actually we can be happy that we're living in such a state of 1 as uh we have currently on the planet Earth now the last and the
3rd option of reducing complexity is we put in the real world into a set of equations a computer model and to use this computer MIT model to simulate the system them it did there's a
clear advantage of this 1st of all it's quite cheap so you can repeat it you can do several of well thousands of of simulations and of course in reality we only have 1 planet right so we can only carry out 1 experiment and that's experiment we're currently living in um so there's no option to repeatedly free fucked up the climate or something else so the um so at this
as being the 1st computer model or the 1st widely known computer model it's the world's 3 model from 1972 uh known by the report the limits of growth of the club of Rome the basic message was that if you have exponential growth of the population and exponential growth of the economy uh while you have limited natural resources there will be 1 point where the the the social system collapses when the population is going down and up to a level where the planet can sustain it again Of course this was 1 of the 1st computer models it was really simple it was also being heavily criticized for being always simplified and luckily for us uh mark those projections didn't become true dilemma but it already shows by triggering off quite a big debated uh meant that it was quite a useful uh my computer model because suddenly we were thinking long periods forward and so on and of course we did not stop with this 1 computer model but we continuously further developed it so this was 1972 with 35 more than 35 years ago and surmise since then of course computers became much more powerful and of course also some a bit slower technological progress in the science community haven't so we're still on the challenge of making good simplify computer models of course they're wrong that's what the model is always because it simplified it leaves out processes that are important but they're useful for us for decision making
so at Potsdam some Institute
we have acquired in the sum of all formal of different models uh you can see for example climate models feeding information to a vegetation model which calculates common stocks in natural vegetation crops yields uh hydrology and so on then we have the information from such vegetation model uh being handed over to a land use and agriculture model which is the model called make by and then we also have the microeconomic model and energy model which is simulates the development of the industry of the the service sector of the uh most of the energy sector and of course also always the greenhouse gas emissions I want to focus
today on the Mac my model met by stands for model of agriculture production and its impact on the environment this is the model I'm
working there uh mates developed by a a large group of approximately currently 15 people uh my Ruoff in various scientific background so we have economists uh my we have visited physicists we have my uh my uh biologists geologists and so
on the and the basic question that we want to answer with you our model is how will the agrifood system look like in the year 2050 and beyond the why is this important probably for you agriculture is not so important Ali anyone still works in agriculture but for all planets agriculture is the really important it's our main interface with the nature if you look at our planet 30 per cent of the terrestrial surface is covered by Agriculture either by cropland postures um if you look at the greenhouse gas emissions 25 per cent and of the greenhouse gas emissions come from land use change in agriculture so again uh strongly with agriculture if you look at water 70 per cent of human water withdrawals are for irrigation water um if you look at water pollution at herbicides biodiversity always this uh met the agriculture as in 1 of the major drivers also we are now we really changing the nutrient cycles of the world um increasing for example the nitrogen Scott cycle by factor of 3 or 4 uh relatively to earlier years and there is also another thing of course agriculture is also really important for us humans because we can live without energy become difficult food and if you
look at the global 19 the leading risk factors worldwide the um of for a preliminary desk 11
of them are connected somehow to nutrition the so either we eat too much which is wrapped or too little which is green um it's something like iron and zinc deficiency vitamin a deficiency suboptimal breastfeeding but on the other hand there's also a lot of things connected to unhealthy diets like high blood pressure high blood glucose overweight and obesity on these top 19 you cannot find Warsaw terrorism or something like that but it's really about mostly about chronic diseases and most of the chronic diseases are strongly connected with our daily diets yeah yeah it
so how does that such a model look like basically we start off
with the food requirements what do people actually eat so and what what what do we actually need as food to sustain their body functions well this of course
depends on um how large the population is and what each of them meet at the moment we are already at the world population of 7 . 6 billion um and whistle Growing we will most likely be um 8 . 5 to 10 billion people in the year 2050 so then we need to do some more uh we frequentation ya Umma and eventually afterwards it there is an option that it might decline offered increase and this depends a lot of on education and on family planning at the same time uh what people need Vermont assisting the body functions per capita is is quite uh my is quite uh click flights always the same actually uh my there are some differences depending on demography here you can see that every guy has a lower requirement because they a lot of young kids are uh in contrast in China and all of a young adults uh you have high food requirements but of course this will shift as soon as we have demographic change in the future and then we'll have in contrast high food requirements in Africa the capital but in in general the Rangers really low 2002 2 thousand 300 kilocalories per capita per day in population average the but this is of course what the people
who would require what they actually uh on what date to consumers much more
so you can see in Germany we have 3 thousand 500 kilo calories in India it's closer to the food to crimes of 2 thousand 450 but you can also see not only that there is a lot of overconsumption you can also see that's the diets are quite different in Germany at we need quite a lot of animal products uh which people in Nigeria All India don't and we we actually don't eat too much fruits vegetables which is a shame for us um up but um but you can see that about we we consume about one-third more than we need and what's the reason for this is basically it's uh that we waste so most of our quite a substantial fraction of our food about 30 % of the food gets wasted in households um just because people well don't care too much about it um and you can see it a
quite strong correlation umber so as soon as we uh my people increase their living standards as soon as the human development index increases you also see that's there and that the food waste is starting order overconsumption this also includes uh consumption in the sense that people eat more calories but also the other Windows quite narrow most of it is full
waste OK and the same you can see for a per-capita calories in order the shelf life the products you can see that the addition of livestock products strongly increases with come on the left you see just correlate them a scatter plot between income and elastic structure for all countries of the world for the last 50 years and you can see that the countries strongly increased their meat consumption especially for new friend move from very low incomes to medium incomes for very high incomes eventually the the life that share declines again and you see the same actually also for processed foods like oil of sugar consumption goes up um unfortunately you don't see for food symmetrical which would be healthier but there it saturates quite as an early income the and
then of course these food to the food demand um has to be satisfied by production before that there is some trade international trade is increasing over the last decades quite strongly much more than production and the next to fault demands there's also the demand for materials but also for bioenergy which will play a role in an increasing role I don't know if you heard the talk before um which may play an increasing role in the future if we want to mitigate climate change because bioenergy is 1 option to uh my takes CO 2 emissions again out of the atmosphere and then the food is of course also process and here the livestock products really play a huge role because in order to feed 1 in order to produce 1 calorie of livestock products you need multiple uh plant calories to feed the animal at the moment approximately a half of the proteins that are produced worldwide on the problem of plants are fed to animals and so um additionally also in a large uh even larger quantity of of posture which is graced by animals and finally we have crops and these crops on standing on the land
and you can see in some lenders enemies you can see a projection or scenario a future scenario of man Howard and the cropland might expand in the future quite strong expansion especially in the tropical areas because they also the population growth is largest
and sit next to land use this
also was on the 1 hand you have cropland expansion but this is not the only option of course to increase production in the past this made all up only 10 per cent of the increase of production the
largest increase actually came always from the intensification of the existing areas and here you can see here the the basically to crop years that we would need in the future in order to sustain our um In order to fulfill the demand and finally
you all model also considers all the interactions with the the biochemical cycles so how do we change the nitrogen the common the phosphorus cycle um but
also how will water starts at the change this is a picture where you can see the water scarcity in 2010 and 2015 so it's basically not the water scarcity but that's how much of the water that is available will be on the use and it's
uh mad the nitrogen cycle is the 3rd most important uh uh biochemical cycle of the world has been changed tremendously by modern agriculture we're now about 5 times the amount of nitrogen which goes through the cycle then in pre industrial
times and finally we end up with emissions
and uh ma well the end if we assume as scenario where we don't take action we can assume that the we simulated that's the emissions will further increase while actually here in order to keep uh man or stay below the true would agree aim we would actually need to lend to sector to sequester carbon so we need to take you to all of the atmosphere this is something that only the land to sector can provide at low cost either through afforestation through plantation of biomass or through the accumulation of carbon in soils so this
is the whole integrated model and the great thing is that it well it's a an optimization model where everything influences everything so if you put a carbon price in this will change the the whole supply chain it for changed its food demanded will change the global trade patterns that will change the land use pattern if you you can also see the directions for example between the nitrogen underwater cycle or uh my the whole or um well and of but you can also see quite well the tradeoffs that exist in our in our system so if you only want to solve 1 specific game it's still well quite quite easily possible um about as soon as you have multiple goes for example if you want to provide enough food for the for the whole world population this will also require you to increase your food food production and then you will have the environmental impacts if you want to reduce uh greenhouse gas emissions you you will need to buy a energy and this of course also has negative impacts again on biodiversity on food consumption on food prices and so on so it's a very complex system and um uh it's uh it's uh really a challenge but it's possible uh man to transform our society sustainably that we actually need all these goals at the same time was really crucial there is on the 1 hand the consumption side to for so we really need to to reduce food waste and we need to reduce the consumption of animal products by large-scale so having animal consumption having the food waste in western society would be something that we should aim for and this is really difficult um at the same time that the whole of production system can be much more efficient than a small price on on carbon would be sufficient to trigger of technical innovations probably and you to implement low-cost common uh mitigation technologies but these are probably the 2 things that we need most we need a right uh mode a policy that puts prices on emissions on carbon or nitrogen on water uh pollution and we need some kind of policies that change on the preferences of the people in a way that they do for example education school education for what is a healthy diets how how do you cook at home and so on all day all these kind of projects that have to be really encouraged the so what can you
do but I 1 advice I want to do you want to give artists and get involved in modeling uh my most of us I actually umber well we have to win of computer scientists from the beginning but we have to learn quite a lot of of the of this but we rather coming from disciplinary backgrounds economists or uh biologists or something like that and but most of our time sections of the development we can surmise it's not that we don't want software developers insist that few people actually apply there so I think putting up the standards of software development in the whole field would be really a great thing um and the 2nd thing is there's a lot of data out uh meant there's a lot of um well also great signs that could be communicated uh using good visualization techniques using uh also maybe artistic projects and so on I just want to give you 1 example before I come to the question and
answer here in the last year we we made the but um workshop with arts students uh who developed interactive installations using our data for example here it's an audio installation rate people could hear the sound of different uh um scenarios depending on whether it's a mercenary where all the the forests are cut down and you have brought a agricultural sounds or more urban sounds in another scenario in my or maybe I'll just pick 1 more
because we have limited time this is the uh might not work by a student from Bangladesh and ends uh my she created a climate box you can enter this climate books throwing a coin and then uh mother using another we know it's uh my it all starts moving you get told the story of climate change uh manner but at the same time also the weather in the climate boxes changing so suddenly becomes hotter and there's a fan blowing in hot air and uh Matisse and these sorts training and there's flashlights um and then if you don't spend more money on its um and then it becomes even worse and worse and worse so this work was actually inspired because he said well people back home they Daisy is damaging to something abstract as long as you don't feel that they wouldn't do something so she came up with this idea did now I'm ready for question-answer thank you very much that
might mean the everybody with questions please go to the microphones in the room and all Internet over the figure legend fold microphone 1 please on this chart showing like institution and so the court clerk compression then you look at the needs of people you spoke about Keller requirements however nutritious much more than calories in specially in the modern Germany button of Lizarra area when you further reduced the animal protein part of the you of problems that malnutrition is that something you factor in those just plain canneries institutes or rhombus or that of course uh uh data data diversity is really important um I would not say that animal protein is the only way of of of them solving this uh man because uh now you can have it and then a balanced diet also without animal protein but it's important actually that 1 of the most important challenges is to drive up the consumption of vegetables and fruits uh manner by a buys by several factors and that and see it there is hardly any it um positive limitation to the in the especially for vegetables to the health impacts of much higher consumption of vegetables of of and fruits of course we look at the dietary composition and uh man and there we also don't only look at at uh livestock versus plant calories but also now fruits and vegetables and on process calories um the but yeah of course I think it's a it's a major problem that we should not play outs goals like food security against goes like climate change we need to simply tackle both of them and as urgently as possible uh man at base times we have 5 minutes until next microphone number 2 please sorry I think I'm too small for this 1 looking um have gone to questions that you were talking about trade so what would you think is the best solution to the crucial trade off them biodiversity and land conversion for future security the 2nd question that you were talking about how important is that we invest in societies drive our our vegetable and fruit consumption but this again would mean that we shift um the land usage for some high calorie foods even if they are not and dairy all well livestock in anyway and so that again we use small land and this again would cause small well rivalry between a global food uses um isn't this contradictory to food security and on we quite healthy already if we stopped eating sugar like crazy thank you thank OK uh man from the of a I put the 1st question again but what has what was the 1st person to who and I with is and so our density man a trade-off between those 2 but as I said in the before uh manner in the past only 10 % said the door the crop plants in the last 50 years only increased by approximately 10 11 % and all that the rest of the productivity improvements were actually reached on the uh on the area at the moment there are quite large field gets in wide area a white areas of the world where you could actually intensify um and and the weight would be actually good to intensify the system's um to a certain degree and the without any land expansion actually necessary there are certain areas where I guess land expansion is possible uh um it's always a trade off of course uh man and we're trying to build in exactly this trade by now including biodiversity indicators in our model but this is still work-in-progress uh to the 2nd question on the fruits and vegetables for so much was actually make up only a tiny share of current land use uh I think less than no less than 10 % definitely um and at the same time uh the dam producing quite high yields because uh man it's not the land which is the the the main resource there but it's labor which goes in and um capital it's not necessarily a clean production leader because you have large nutrient runoffs often large pesticide use but in terms of land use it's not such a bad thing you get quite high at uh moment tons of uh my product produce out of a vegetable farm um but of course they also trade see it as a sustainable probably of sugar is providing the cheap calories um without large environmental footprint if you calculated the calorie and contrast fruits and vegetables provides very little calories but provides very nutritious food in terms of fiber vitamins and so on so the so we have a lot of question I C 8 and 1 from the internet so I we have just minute so I take 1 from the internet 1 from 5 and I ask everybody else to ask the speaker after what you used here and young for your questions so Internet what is your question OK the salt yes he asks how do I get involved in modeling can I play with my pi by downloading code and data somewhere and no internet um the do their model will become open-source next year so we're currently uh in the process of the whole legal staff of making it open source and so the next model version of all model will be published OpenSaaS few microphones find his mind thanks for the great talk and yes a last year there was also a loss and talk about them food and plant-based food innovation that is fine space so my question is twofold 1st and do you implement technological innovation that would lead to a more plan-based them diets and um in general in the model and the 2nd 1 hopefulloy you personally that those will have an important impact in the future you speaking of some kind of uh uh plant-based read replacement products and so um yes we we we actually published a study or a commentariat this year also on a rumor acquired the extreme case of this which is basically land less food production so you can reach microbes based on fertilizer and energy uh modes a kind of spaces of food technology that was developed by the Russians but now it actually becomes the commercial um commercially cheap um I guess it will certainly happen due for certain protein foods so it will for example replace uh soybean more fish meal in animal feeding to a certain proportion um I'm not so sure about that the actual nutrition a value of this um or about well I'm a bit skeptical whole hold positive I would judge it but I would judge it quite realistic also for them but the whole image replacement products based on on plant-based uh my uh on plant basis I think it will become economically just cheaper and then you will have a uh a tipping point where simply because all of economic reason is cheaper people will reduce their meat consumption or for example a burger will consist of half fake meat and half ReaderMeter because it's cheaper and um I think this transformation will happen and somehow ordered breeding animals just for a for a four-day meet seems technology which is somehow outdated for the 21st century if you ask me so and the more than half flowers Dr. randomly drawn thanks to the and St what's what's
the you know the the therapist best the the PEP act
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Titel Simulating the future of the global agro-food system
Untertitel Cybernetic models analyze scenarios of interactions between future global food consumption, agriculture, landuse, and the biogeochemical cycles of water, nitrogen and carbon.
Serientitel 34th Chaos Communication Congress
Autor Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
Lizenz CC-Namensnennung 4.0 International:
Sie dürfen das Werk bzw. den Inhalt zu jedem legalen Zweck nutzen, verändern und in unveränderter oder veränderter Form vervielfältigen, verbreiten und öffentlich zugänglich machen, sofern Sie den Namen des Autors/Rechteinhabers in der von ihm festgelegten Weise nennen.
DOI 10.5446/34811
Herausgeber Chaos Computer Club e.V.
Erscheinungsjahr 2017
Sprache Englisch

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Fachgebiet Informatik
Abstract How can we feed a growing world population within a resilient Earth System? This session will present results from our cybernetic computer models that simulate how future trends in population growth, diets, technology and policy may change the global land cover, freshwater usage, the nitrogen cycle and the climate system, and how more sustainable pathways can be reached. We want to discuss how our computer models and our data can be made accessible and usable by a broader community, and which new ways exist to visualize key insights and provide decision support to our society. We will also showcase some interactive physical installations that have been developed jointly with a group of art students to visualize future scenarios.
Schlagwörter Science

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