I predict a riot!

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I predict a riot!
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Explaining the London Riots with math.
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and thank you
thank and about
thank you very much I think on occasion figure most I'm not afraid and on my this is London and then the title might to say is I believe is I think and I was having a tiny bit misleading when I chose this title is perhaps a more accurate I by today with is can I predict right I don't see what we're thinking about it and already anyone involved here so we can refine and further by saying can anyone predictor right and you know what in for a penny in for a pound and that's actually a lot can anyone actually fit anything at all to do with human behavior that think this is kind of important and interesting question because surely all of you a very smart intelligent independent people acting on the free world so how is it possible to predict anything about your behavior non-income factor that I'm about to riots and in the but 1st of all and I'm going to be the opportunity to win a generously and said this just the
and we have to do to win the jealousy is always to tell me how many streets think on in the job and any guesses from 6th seed bearing that I lied saying on the low side of society because all independent and free will to people actually very well rather than only to come up with you make up your own mind than anybody else
inference again will likely against 106 in various ways 83 K had 150 algorithm by 60 can't
160 OK I have at hand in 1991 there get 90 so you can have any 115 that
take here to and 206 in this job is 117 so you you when use of disease as compared as is around the throws of his programmers have
data it here if I could have had this need to have this and OK now the issue of why do I do this written as well and I also think that don't the 117 and this
is a picture of another as we examined linkage the Berlin and my them all before God and it is not just that fit this picture up on Twitter and I ask people on trick that's exactly the same thing as you start having forgets
Thomas Friedman job and here the answers that they gave you know exactly the same number of Sweden and John 170 and you can see that there's a range of answers just as we had here in the room everything from 55 swamp a paper clip and guarantee that 1 of the major and all the way up to uh frankly stupid 350 and as I said there 117 sweets
in the jar something really interesting happens when you take immediately take the average of all of the gasses that people on Twitter and it comes out with the average young 117 . 9 which I think you all agrees astonishing accurate now we've done that in the roman hostile to write down losses we would have found a
similar phenomena and you would have got very very close to getting the number of Sweden major now this idea was 1st discovered by chance confronted school to and he noticed and use it as a flagrant abuse watching
people get the weight of an ox and he noticed that the number of people who are overestimated tends to balance out the number of people who are underestimated giving you an average this astonishingly accurate and that the same idea with the drive sleep I want to include it because I think it's a very simple example of how you can predict some types of human behavior might have no chance tool of making a prediction of what anyone with individual with many that will uh what they would guess that embassies in the job if you look at your altogether and suddenly the patterns that emerge them much easier to get rid of I'm going to
any interested in working together and I noticed that we you gave up on the winner around clause and you get brokers students and your company different volumes different pitch is in
parity at the time instants which is the quite frankly and so in the interest of acting together and seeing what you may it's like as if we want to see that the title
experiment if you can get together to class in sync forming a case that you have a
have a have a have a have a have you again and I didn't make a prediction there was evidence and you are the 1st audience ever was not gonna so thanks a lot of mean but 1st
2 because all it is not only did the companies that the audience is normally do but not thank you can and you think very quickly in under 2 seconds which he did manage that domain only built uh that increasing
tempo and and built a raucous and say aspects of learning about the local mail on regular and there is another example of an of how human behavior a larger scale has characteristics is not immediately obvious when you look at the level of an individual because if you think about how is it possible that removal of people could fall into synchronicity in under 2 2nd session what I think anyway an interesting question because it can't possibly be you only listening to your neighbor I'm changing your cock brain according to what you're made this thing is is that was
the case because it would be much more like a Mexican way forever be equally it can't be possible each 1 of you is this into to every other single person is doing just your contrary to everyone in the room possible have to be something strange going on a group of people can act in a particular way and that's not immediately from having individuals at now you might think this is because your humans and therefore incredibly intense in and think of the king and so on but actually had disappeared in the natural world as well say fireflies for example and I have been known to do this is synchronizing groups and that this is an example of
a study by the Justice segerstrale straight his and his work making going to check it out and thought I was very what at this the picture them it would in North America and usually
less attractive place what is going to be sent and but fireflies have been noted in Asia and to synchronize their flashing
friends this wants to attract a mate essentially and this along the riverbank this is on a river bank in Malaysia this again and but you can see that all of the fireflies by doing this exact same synchronize behavior that you take a group of fireflies and put them in a darkened room and even when there's been a fraction much of the same way as people class start off flashing indiscriminately the very quickly fall into synchronization with 1 another so it was going on with humans is also going on with fireflies and you'll situations
Christianization of the soul of
countryside that crickets chirping chapter may also very quickly fall into sequence that synchronization with 1 another and check simultaneously well maybe it's something to do with the weight and that living beings brains
work maybe that take the during this this kind of strange thing that's going on the difference between the individual and group behavior but it may surprise it's not actually even inanimate objects have these properties and so here is an example on In the case
if you take a series of maintenance like this from the mall at at different the rate now what is criteria in a 2nd there was sitting on a board of words he didn't pick up the board of words and place them on top of the page contents and you can see here what happens very very quickly is that just the physics of the that the system as the is allowed for each lecture and influence every other middle name and the influenced by every other reaction and then you can see very quickly and they didn't think this 1 is being ignored the videos for significant and so I think this is astonishing the even inanimate objects can display green like properties which different from how you would expect an individual which and that I'm not just for you start getting carried away rethinking leptin or and object
humans are not clever a number of objects and there's a very similar example of this exactly this behavior exactly this property has that happened in London and either the Millennium Stage cake same as in under the that a bridge the Millennium
Bridge Built surprisingly for the Millennium and added within a few days the bridge have to be collected is what so dramatically that people can crosses safely and now the thing is is that there was nothing can read the wrong with
intestines and so on and people could walk over without it will bleed out pops and what happens on the bridge very elections in humans have the behavior of the humans with what was causing it to wobble a case if you can imagine that you have a group of people walking in the same direction as there is some probability that 2 people will be planting their right exactly the right right now because the shock absorbers on the bridges that they were quite right so shuffled so those on the bridge what that means is the bridge moved so which would not more people onto the
same path and more people are more people so that eventually as you can see here the entire crowd of people are moving backwards and forwards perfectly in sync with 1 another and then
everything is driving region driving the model of the bridge and now I want to show you all of these examples these areas of about synchronization and because really I think beautiful examples as how uh how the behavior of the group condition from that the behavior of an individual or quite simple and it's all about the interaction between the individual and the whole now the
study of these types of problems in the sciences and systems is what's known as complexity the study of complexity and not really my area of research and as a mathematician that's why I spend my time
looking into the and now complexity is something that has completely exploded in the past 2 years and I'll show you later on I should say how I've replied complexity to the riots by just 1 and tell you a little bit
more about complexity is best the not even low complexity and has just i is concave crazy in the last decade
or so from academic still don't have a
completely agreed upon definition of what it means for something to be complex but my favorite 1 although the 1 I think
captures the the best is by an after-school mark newman and non-destructive use in America and he says a complex system is a system composed of many interacting parts which displays collective behavior that does not follow trivially from the behavior of individuals that wording but that's the best we've got so far I've
actually defining what it means the company and you want something a bit less where wedding and you could alternatively use uh a definition which 1 of my colleagues bounds and in a paper but then if you can't quite read this statement
here and that it says complexity is like pornography and hard to define you know when you see it come to that but I cannot alternative
and if you buy a few OK so that the definition you can't get quite placed understanding what it is and what
complexity means and by his thinking of it in in comparison to other bits of science and and all that
and although as I said complexity has just explained in the last 2 years the ideas these ideas that have been around for a while and there's a paper by John Warren Weaver an
American scientist which is were in their forces acting in 1948 I think he absolutely nails I wanted what complexity is the words about and in this paper waste as does a kind of a review of all scientists every scientific discovery and every scientific application technique up until that point in history and it cuts them and puts everything into 3 neat categories out in the 1st category which he calls problems of simplicity he gives the classic example of a snooker ball or a billiard ball on a table now if you can imagine and uh physicist or mathematician observing that system be very
easy for them to write down a series of very simple equations which could track the movement of the ball on the table how it rebounds from decides how interacts articles and so on and if you are slightly less this if the the scale
goes up to the size of planets the problem is still the same right you can write very simple equations
which describe what's going on very neatly and so the problem is is is this essentially very few objects interacting with each other in a very simple
way and now it comes as a good example because as soon as you get up and to find it interacts with each other if you have 3 or 4 or 10 or 15 suddenly the problem becomes completely unmanageable and traditional
techniques of promises simplicity no longer work but strangely if instead of just 10 or 15 uh items or
objects there in you suddenly have millions or billions of them the problem stranger then becomes the most of them because you no longer care about trying to track individual object you can start talking about properties of the system as a whole of the dynamics is a really good example of this that is essentially what you're doing is you're tracking
the so the properties of a system of billions of particles and women behave altogether they behave in a way that is easily quantifiable and easy to understand and and then you can make predictions
from and this is the 2nd group the warm we was talking about problems of disorganized complexity based this all the time the kids and the at that particles
for example freedom and moving around in a completely random like interactive way and it's just sort of all disorganized but at this end of the spectrum at this point in history and
statistical physics have been discovered which I have discovered and you could deal with problems of this was disorganized complexity whether billions of objects listed interacting in a very simple way now where we have made the point that at that point in history scientific methodology is completely gone from 1 extreme to the other from very few number of variables to an astronomical number and left untouched as great middle regions now this middle region is exactly where all of these problems of
complexity died and it's also where any problem that you can think of to do with human behavior and understanding and predicting human behavior this is exactly where all of these problems it and
what we've apples and problems as disorganized complexity and that's I think it a shortened version every best and the way that I can describe to you what what effects the 9 10 and looking at systems from this perspective the looking at the code disconnection between the individual in the whole there are a few examples where people have made a lot of
headway and they to understand system differently and 1 of the easy in and traffic shock waves at a and imagine you're driving down its way and
and sometimes you find yourself in a traffic jam I which lasts for a short while and then disappears when there was never any obstruction there's never any reason for
the traffic to stay down so that to explore
this idea of a group of Japanese scientists and GoGrid cause drive around sample and as is here just to try see to turn explore
this area and now what they did is that all of the calls all the drivers they told them to drive exactly set answer now and but cause they're people driving these cause what the
variable what some people would not be the driving at say 29 miles now while other people would be driving at 31 miles an hour so what
that means is that the faster cars will catch up to the constant from and have to 4 on their brakes may become behind on their breaks in the car behind the carbon carbon what you end up with is the traffic shock waves
as you can see here that means backwards through the
field of traffic in in this experiment the shot places you see 4 milliseconds start of all weekly space and it can go
here I think again you can see the shadow xiphoid beginning and middle that's severe traffic than shock wave the through traffic at about
20 miles an hour which is very similar speech to the shock waves that you see on motorways and then been observed in in your life and this is just an example again and and how looking at the big picture rather than just individual car tells you something you otherwise would be and
the and this is something that is it's been applied in and try to understand traffic and and improving uh well injured improving traffic systems and another really nice example is looking at how it is that you know how people move around and in pedestrian dynamics as well now OK if you mention you have and to
uh you have a cordial with lots of people moving in opposite directions on the part of the now it would be possible and to each
individual person to just act completely is an individual completing their own independent and free will and just barge straight through and
not care about anybody else but it's much easier than as untrue all have experience of of taking something he was traveling in the same direction as you and then just following them if you do that because everybody does as we'll do what you find is that people naturally form these lanes in pedestrian traffic and and these having read 1 of that of it and this experiment and by physics welding uh huge channel and to Shays really clearly uh how these names for not understanding have suggestions made of and so the model firm-level properties
of destinations the news said look at and evacuation procedures regulations design and the act and help optics mentioned is to to create buildings that much more efficient at understand
how people mn even possessed now the rules that pedestrians using and so few of them us in a case the unit is not greater behavior observed in critical characteristics that thing about complexity is that you want eventually that down and understand what individual
properties lead to that the level behavior at the top level behavior and individual properties and it turns out that the way that people behave as pedestrians has a lot of similarities to the way that that behave when they flock in the sky cities and this information is stored in memory chip and stocking that's making these incredible moving in evolving patterns now you could be forgiven I think when you 1st see the thinking that there was an interesting this kind of macro-level property for thinking that perhaps there was a couple of that were in charge of the movement of these folks and the incredible shape that they think to form and making this guy by
actually something much more interesting is going on just the same way as the destined dynamics because of all these incredible shapes created just by a very simple set of rules the
each individual each individual but it's and the rules are 1st off and basically don't find out about from all say too much because speed and direction of your name that I can be shared into computer simulations and the the
and come up with exactly the same types of patterns the same characteristic patterns that you see in silence and making all of these movements just by there's a really simple rules of an individual an occasional over this
at and want to show you just in the same way as and that the distance and the traffic how these ideas can be exploited
to make things better and have an example by chosen in and which the right is an how technology body areas footballing style and to show you how he uses well how come complicated here for many complex systems perspective
and can explain why there are so effective now OK and for those of you who are not football fans that you just quickly and and Mike Butcher and distill also tactics into 1 sentence and generally speaking the traditional way of is full full to you all there about
this structure and push forward wherever possible and try and schoolgirls that's essentially and of the of the things
we know we have had very general idea then we go with that is that each player has a really well defined role and position within the t the traditional way of thinking about it now pet 1 is a subtle style all these tactics out has some differences and it makes
much more about the macro level of the team that I have to say this stuff is this is more relevant to the Barcelona than and provides a forgery have Alex in a minute but
while oscillating and you will widely regarded to be 1 of the best teams as and pet body area gave the players 3 very simple rules just in the same way as the birds have very simple rules as individuals and then the map prepared it came
from yet but only gave 3 very simple rules displays the fastest make
triangles across the pitch that you make triangles at rotten sticking to it straight lines you give yourself always to passing opportunities the O stars the face I think had say to think and where I think of the future triangles and treaties state or across the pitch his video where you can see this happens a not center in the dark color and you can see the really straight line for the other team the making y you can see how the players a moving around to constantly create these are constantly evolving triangles it's not later again look at the straight line the gravity and kind constantly moving around the
triangles and then a final example then not worrying about holding position anymore that just using simple rules to create a macro level behavior of fluids that all that's not the same as the traditional style and 2nd all the Boston would use these possibly patient right now if you hold onto possession of the ball by keeping these triangles if you constantly keep making these triangles
supports the move the ball around indefinitely opposition have possesses then inevitably negatively moving around you and forced them into making mistakes so the 2nd row was the past and the patient allow the other team to make a mistake and then exploit them mistake when
and when they make it so here's a really nice example is a bus there again and out of stories terrible quality and give you might just gives the same essentially patents up up here and you're gonna see an Abergele react he spots that up there and 1 straight forward into the gas to now using the perfect position to create a goalscoring opportunity but they need to get up again so what
the players do is they carry on making these triangles again the straight line to be the continued passing the ball around and being patient and until finally they added aspects of that exploit the opportunity in your program now have for the variances this that have this but I think it's
great that there are now cerebral the bus amenities and was a famous 1 of press the 6 seconds is the 1 that people knew about and essentially the idea is if you have if you use possession of the ball and what you should do is all wrong i the opposition fair formidable and and and press false acceptance and
the idea behind this is that you can narrow the field of play with little opportunity of it's the ball as far as it can to get it you back in many parts of cities that is the area of the city and which shows a really necessary
sevoflurane dark again by making people use possession and then they all right so it's him the guy has no choice but to keep the ball out and they regain possession that these sorts of rules respect God where influenced perhaps not from the kind of mathematical point of view but is these
very very simple rules that would mean that the team barcelona played as 1 moving least 1 fluid object rather than as individuals and as the such is a complexity
now and I just want to save his pet moderates now moved by music and who unfortunately lost which the final items semifinal rather last week and which makes this extra bit and saying how great
delicate it and the events and I will I will say and is it since is finally gave an explicit again and seasons they say they've been exploring also different styles including some of the ideas to use the bus lanes and some others but 1 thing that they have been doing is using fit and lot of it on as an anchor in the triangle system as you can see really nicely here and the way the play a structured around 10 I'm and did long now holds the record for the most successful passes in in in a single going 134 which is just astonishing but the main point of sharing with you all of these examples the main reason why I want to include it was just to demonstrate how looking at things from the macro level can give you the chance to exploit weaknesses and stop patterns otherwise wouldn't be immediately obvious to you and looking at things the complexity science point of view we really could use
opportunity and this is particularly pertinent
when it comes to looking at the something like that riots and and that for example by studied at the London Riots in 2011 and so just to tell you a little bit about the riots themselves and sort of that to and in 2011 between there and 6 in the 11th of August in London and as such the city exploded with writing and it started initially after every peaceful protests after their
and tragic the shooting of knocked out there and 10 violent in North London i'm because of this addictive nature as the protests and police initially I tried to contain alliances rather than to me very heavy-handed the anorexic people know the cost of that 1st decaying writing and as a possible set on fire and I'm writing invited escalated as we possibly can they're beginning to come into play until finally they knew Towards a local shopping center and started meeting at a local shopping center now as things die down my evening but the next day copycat riots sign up all over London and which no longer had any
direct connection to the original protest and stranger things didn't really have and at a strong political motivation people during arise as of 2011 would not we're not trying to win a particularly make politically-motivated him just
1 we stop sorry Western but I an as well as was going to say
and what I have been living in the city at the time and I think it was uh what's important to say just how much the city was affected by the of really on the
unexpected and have just this is the widespread rioting across the city and on the 3rd day was when the effects reached peak and with right and you see this coming up period seconds this coming that they now with rights completely exploding across the city and across the rest of the UK and now immediately after the events of the police they can see how how widespread these rights where I should say actually searches
at center each 1 of these jobs relates to an arrest made in connection with an event to each 1 of these is basically a person committing an offense that they would then uh arrested for I'm not just to give you some and a pseudo facts about how dramatic these events
where in London and there were over 4 thousand a RESTful thousand people were arrested and then riots 5 fatalities by people lost their lives in these events and now 1 thing that makes the lights sort of an original in some ways all unique in some ways it was a really strong emphasis on reading and much more than you've seen previous rights because there was a strong political and people were really using this as an opportunity especially the copycat things happened in subsequent weeks of such contains
a and people really were using as an opportunity to to rate shops essentially I'm and there's a a 250 million pounds and is the latest estimates of and the cost to the taxpayer know when these lines happened
and I was working in London and at the time I was working on and looking at retail behavior to help people shop people shopping habit habits for the complexity science point of view and and there were 2 months the printed in the got which is a very big national newspaper in the UK
and these tumor that with the thing that really sparked the interest and made us uh also suggested the perhaps we could look at the riots using complexity science and mathematics to this is the 1st of the month and now I immediately after the events and when people who were arrested appeared in court in The Guardian newspaper 10 reporters and recorded where they have they had extended for all say where they used to have 2 pieces of information for
every writer and Islamist mapping say the right locations of the dog at the white
circles with the doctors in the middle and the red dots which behind see on the map and that's where people live now this London Math and adjusted to the sort of all over the place find it really reflects the polycentric nature of the city with lots and lots of shopping centers lots of residents there is all over the place but if you compare that
to what the map of the number of Manchester sorry looks like you can see a real contrast in the signature patterns so in Manchester Robin everything it all over the place there's a really and uh of violent center essentially everything happened right in the center of the city and all of the suspect's lived in a ring around the city now if I had drawn because you're studying we at the time if I have drawn maps which shows you where people live to where they shopped you would end up with something very similar to this these 2 maps and the contrast between London and Manchester to different cities the signatures of those cities but this is the thing that we got our interest and at made us think that we can
look at this using similar techniques to the retail side of things and so are you see how the universe level and they have really good connections the police on
and as I mentioned briefly at a moment ago by the police during and often these riots they uh were really keen to understand how things got out of control so quickly and if there is anything that they could have done to minimize the damage or to bring about a quick resolution to the unrest and answers to the questions in particular they were interested in asking where and why was
it that divides at wants right a widespread across the city but it was some areas which were really not be affected and other areas wine explore which have hardly anything at all and some of these areas like Brixton for example since South London has a history of writing has been right said for the some of the areas like call waiting or the which adjusting really unusual
ability so badly affected during the rise these really want to know what was it about these places that make them slaves susceptible to
and they will also mention as I mentioned to know whether they have sufficient resources to deal with this and whether they could have done anything bad to happen presenting the sum of the the way that the police managed to get a handle on the riots in the
end was just reading by recalling everybody from holiday is in august areas where of beep poor when it counts single annually and bringing in police from all over the country into London's chance that and you can see here how the numbers changed and that the few days from 3 and a half thousand roughly on the 1st nite when things happen all the way on tuesday nite when they really managed to get a handle on things of 16 thousand police officers so must at all times more than 4 times as many police officers on the streets must have image scan and this I think is something variation and
did they really need 16 thousand police officers to monitor to course things all could they have done it with with your lives and so the police state office and with data on everybody who had been arrested in connection with the riots
them so this isn't and I guess you have to you need be aware of is that this doesn't mean that we have perfect information on the right the tool where you know people who got caught really and
all who were arrested for other suspects arrested and but we you still have over 4 thousand records and in particular the important thing again is we have where they had committed their sense but also where they live you can track how far people moved across the city and begin to try and tease out some of the patterns and why they behave that way as agree and I should say Canada
statuses and in my mind and the main thing here as I tried to emphasize the earliest is we not trying here to make any predictions about the behavior of an individual person and we can't talk using these techniques we can't talk about the motivation of an individual this really is about looking at the big wide scale patterns of the city and not have to the data we did this
visualization of the smaller set was a where people committed the offense and the largest and
most tell you how far they travel essentially and so we called plot suspect addresses on a map for obvious reasons they it just gives you an idea of how far people travel not
URI is quite naturally drawn to the to the really big samples and we thinking and your eyes naturally drawn to the to the big
examples like that and then by actually the vast majority of these events have very for small cycles with people traveled not very far until the few things immediately become quite obvious from the patterns in the data them and the first one is the tem poral
signatures so that the net inflow of things so how things how riots built up to a peak in the late evening or early morning and then you die down overnight these much to the gain control over the city and and if you look at
just that particular thing if you look at how these events can Rosenfeld Rosenfeld this is the graph you can you can see quite clearly how the Monday nite was just a huge thing across the city and now is trying to do a similar graph to show you cases seasonal flu in a country you'd end up with
something that looks very similar say lot of cases seasonal fruit in the winter and then dies down over some the lots of cases the dies down and this time this signature of kind of the ebb and flow that is really
reminiscent then as the way the diseases spread as it is which we substitute them more work was the 1st thing is suggested that perhaps there was a contagious idea to write the spread through the city and spread through the city in the
same way that as a case of the common cold mind for example and that the
key observation 1st observations and now the thing is is that the way that and ideas spread all the way the virus spread is a really old and well-studied problem not from complexity science has been around for a long while and people really do understand how to look at and that the process
is contagious some of 1st observations from the data and the 2nd observation from the data was that and was where
people came from now in some ways an it is not a complete surprise to say that the people who are involved in the riots came from some of the most deprived areas of the city so in the background here in the red and red and blue shows you the index multi deprivation is essentially to take into account things like income things like and how many and uh put at school qualifications the number of unemployed people the quality of the housing all of those that have things
that take into account in this mission so rate is meant to private and you can see kind of quite clearly that a lot of the patents which is where the suspects if I came from its parts of the
city what surprise me anyway it was just how staff this relationship was it really was this and a similar an idea that we get the right along the side of the number of friends as centers of the talk and it really is a basically a straight line and the people involved really did come from some of the of the west of the city and this is the worst schools and the highest crime rates of the kind of that was the 2nd really important observation that we made from the data and
the 3rd observation was the thing that brings us back to the idea of making a shot is in it was where people or how far people traveled farther so this here is to extend the teaches that there
and around the outside is how far people travel to help out where people came from and you can kind of see as it is an essay called effect which is where the derivation I feature comes in but it's also a bit of a radio thing right people generally did travel that far to the right setting up people kind coming from the other side of the city and she distill data down
and look at a bar charts and here's how far people travel you can see that it is know most people in fact uh really didn't travel very far tool to get to the right you were writing in their own neighborhoods and then effect 82 centered people traveled less than 3 kilometers to get to the right now with the work
that we've been doing on retail by looking at it was something behavior at this is the thing which really concern to us that there was something that we can do here because it's essentially the process by which the rioters were behaving is very very similar to the way in which offers pain can say if you if you going shopping you would prefer that to shop
local to where you live the preferred not still very far to solve but you prepared to go a bit further for a really big retail center right now since the rioters were behaving in the same way they work using violent cases the close to where they live but they were prepared to travel further for really big client side and and this is a very particular to the London Riots because Newton was so important people were
essentially choosing tell sensors and it in in the same lines as they would if they were buying stuff but they
were going on and looting instead and immediately events a all of the UK Page is run with the headline and shopping with violence into the fiction but it does really capture what what we found data and and in fact I see you can see here this straight line is what you would expect if we were looking at the
behavior of people going shopping and adopted line
is how the writers things that really really similar the characteristics OK so what we wanted to do then is we wanted to try and and come up with a mathematical
representation of the events are we wanted something that is not it can exactly predict whenever I was gonna happen when I was gonna stop but could replicate the general patterns that you saw on the right has no way that we could actually predict exactly where the next right side is going to be because we did not complete information as you know this is no way possible and where you have people who were arrested so you want to create something that was capable of replicating these patterns and using
these are things that we found that from the data and also with the ideas in complexity science what we did is we came up with these 3 stages 3 states model now in the 1st stage as people decide whether or not to participate in activities decide whether or not to get involved in the riots these is very similar to the idea of infection that we were talking about
and as soon as people have decided that they're going to buy that use where they get again based on the way that people behave in a retail setting which is also very old a well studied problem and finally when they get to right I and then that there was the the interactive
creative according to a model of civil violence which again is a very old ones by the problem semi just trying to explain you how it works in the diagram such the you have a network of homes and shops Arroyo can decide whether all possible and residents of the the city decides whether or not they want to be involved in the riots when they decide they want to be involved she's where they going go as tho they were going shopping essentially and when they get when they interact with the police
and and there's a deterrent effect of the police presence which is important and now I'm going to show you that the greatest properly you we after the paper the but
just to say that this is that this is an it's got a sound theoretical basis and again it is highly interactive as well as lots of its which kind of feed
into each other and that's where the real complexity that comes in OK so I guess and how the model do you know how well where we generating these patterns I don't think you can teach you that so if you school of 5 days worth of data onto a single event it's old 5 days
whether the rest front of single event and say that it all happened exactly the same time and then compare that to a model that starts everything off all together at the same time you'd never expect them to be the same right we've never expect them to be identical but it doesn't it because the you know there were different characteristics across the dentist is another academic paper which you can
read a lot I'm but still we can we do all right it's the in 26 of the hours when the same woman neighboring categories of events but where the model is
really powerful and and and really gives us something is in the way that it tells you how different areas of the city was susceptible or whether or not to the areas of the city the susceptible and so that essentially the full worst-hit areas of the city where Brixton Croydon cut conjunction meeting these are the 4 worst-hit areas we doesn't have the biggest them the things that problem now what we do here in the model is we pair off Brixton with its this
retail sent us the 2 neighboring recess and as we pay them off in the model and we start
off a very very small riot in both of those areas then we wait to see what happens now and in some cases the
riot and stores in more people in explosives and in other cases it dies away
into nothing and we recorded what happens in the experiment in experiment 1 and we repeat an experiment by carrying bricks all of its kind and another meeting the test site and then pairing of Brixton against Camberwell London breaks the gets with nor would we take the average of what happens in Brixton and compare it to what happened in all of those 4 areas and the 4 neighboring be doesn't it I need every single penny breaks then explodes while the others it's nothing and just as happened in the great events themselves we repeat the experiment for Croydon Kevin Jepsen
eating and in almost all of the cases even uh at this up a slight defecting requesting readable but almost all of the cases it's the places in reality which exploded other ones that our model takes hours really susceptible
areas now this is important because it means that you can use it to inform the police about where is likely to be and some whether there had is likely to be susceptible says and in theory you can have a surface of the city and the way you say to these these yeah you go to focus on that even areas like Croydon which was a bit surprising that became our models able to predict that there they were susceptible and it is also
something that we can do about that I'm looking at other because because right interactive in the model you can also use this to set up a sort of an imaginary riots and then use it to explore different policing strategies to see how important from PC strategies are because our writers rapidly and the 2 things very simply that we explored or how many police officers you need to quash things aren't all said and how quickly police response all have halted these response time now you have to be really careful and a person in the model doesn't necessarily relate to the exact person 1 reader 1 person 1 person is not exactly the same
thing they began for but with a huge bucketload of so you could very loosely said that perhaps 6 thousand 16 thousand police officers were necessarily to quash things and perhaps there was something of a smaller because we used rather
than bringing foreign before they go hand 1 event the thing in women with petition society it that it does make sense for us to sit in an office and say all I think that police slept in this way to make up a policing strategy out you to conjure 1 up was much more important is if the police themselves can use these tools to try out different things because we can create a match we write has the same characteristics as as a real riot police can use this to try out of things say I we created at
again in and at this stage is delegated to say and I'm quite sitting and but we created game which has where it it's a touch table and with a map of London where riots kind of crop up and down across the city and the moments very city version you
place like cause legatees cards on the table the table could detect where you place your police resources and the model in the background reacts and ions that because your school and so on but the idea in general is the lack of all of them put it into an interface that is actually useful the police can you use to explore different strategies and inform them using 1 of the ideas of complexity and until they're at it informed about what the
macro level aspects of their individual behaviors are on our yesterday there yes but that thank you very much and
thank much of the money
was used in the US was so thank
you very much I have a question I'm I'm sorry I'm at the platelets also I didn't get the
beginning amateur maybe something I'm asking those already covered very my question is on what what do you think well what do other think about the ethical implications of this kind of research on what you talked about
was that we have that we get some sort of scientific technology that enables us to look at a quieting but what free exchange writing for the installation and what about the way we always look at why it seemed like we always said that the quietest came from some of the theory privileged neighborhoods and that the writing itself also started with a specific event and so and I'm also looking back to what you talking head by such a global so that that technologies of technologies in the where we neutral objective sense but they also have not possible in the social movement and of i wanna
also looking back in history if we if we think of this as knowledge he continues to advance the backup it gets more complex you can better in things if you look back for example of the you know French solution so there would be today if we bake then has the ability
to prevent French Revolution there but they have a high call that have a higher power here and is there actually well I have 1 I had 1 more slide because is free in the interest of time where uh something which is so the address is what what you're and but it's it's interesting that there's a couple of really important points to make and the 1st here is that this work in particular is very specific to London and and the reader and then on the right and again the reason for that is that is and how much you think there was an and the 2nd thing is that is there was a political motivation for people it was very easily detected by police and the thing is is that that is really intake equal to the weight of this the this meticulously works
because putting people of variance using a paired trainers is much much
easier than it is to stop somebody's legitimately fighting for their freedom and their economy are I OK
alright I felt points and I think it is particularly interested in that was an United political so I think that's kind of the difference and I think the tearing people from from doing something like C and opportunistic atrocity their
training is which essentially is what a lot of and the evidence showed and on the right is very very different from something like serial from that I don't think you can use these ideas in in something where he was so much more motivated to share their opinions and I also think and that it also really important to this uh make the point that this is not about making predictions this is not about saying and in 15 minutes time there will be a riot it on this tree at this time it's not about all this is about just understanding and exploring the general characteristics in the way that we behave I personally think that while a new data privacy and and you know
it handing over too much control technology is a really scary thing and I completely
agree with all the points that we made several times in the public I think and I still think that there is something positive to be gained by looking at the macro level behavior of
people in the way that we can design of society are you looked at how to
suppress the riots and and also and he hopes to make alliances as Princess manipulating the infection
process on the decision process all of radical writing in and then I confess that in the case of
an unsigned think if it would be possible and essentially not necessary not with what we've done and because it would be like saying and how do you optimize where you go shopping and is said have would be the united and and really is about what your you as an individual a book I think maybe maybe that's the point then is that because we're
looking at is the maximum gray-level those kind of individual choices don't really come into it that much so in the 1st half
of the course were interested in speech still still as far as well as those who
belong to cancel to result that the most riots or the strongest words came from other privileged alleles and which also traditional those words still the caulking heaven to local proved mathematically what common sense or experience what most people especially polices until already
and can say and this is something that I didn't see it as side that I mean the
mathematics that we would do it was really about between the patterns the membrane of patterns right by testing was really interested exactly that story that people coming from really deprived me it's and and so it was made a short
film which what online and
where I I went into the different writers who actually involved in the events and try to understand from that perspective why they got involved and and and I think that is a really important point that it is
essential to act and complement the story and and to a little longer was it was going to be contained by think that and really we should use these ideas at the of riots as much to kind try and understand how and why for example I don't know in London a situation where there was what they were doing as much as shown have the police to to stop the city from unitarity and uh arise and I think that you have to kind of have coupled
approach by have understood you correctly that you a dataset during the analysis based on a dataset of police arrests it and we use the patterns that we found in the dataset to inform the
data free model but on police
arrests I haven't sociological research shown that police arrest anything but neutral can there really represents all the rights of work I know know all the
particular especially underprivileged groups of societies tend to be arrested more
against your model is based on a datasets now reinforces that's the data set by telling the police that they should go to these areas the more so well OK
so I think there's a couple of important things in that that the 1st is that your you absolutely right that you have to be aware of the flaws in the data and that's really
important and I think that and yet gone understand you don't have the computers you don't get everybody was involved in like I did before they were arrested I think I have to that that the uh the data that we have
is so large that we're peeking out much gray-level patterns that completely represented or appear within that data and using that to inform assumptions about the way that people behave so why do we allow you have to be
careful about how you understand the limitations of your data I think you have to be careful about the
limitations of you know this kind of mathematical modeling in total we have to understand what it could offer you what account of the and from a set of about questions answering but if it
if they were that the uh I had was that was really interesting formulated came up with and I hope 1 day you actually are able to predict with more precision than you out but owing to the fact that the the government already has
some really crazy surveillance methods for you guys living there don't you think that this is just too much power to the hands in the hands of the London government against people that want to express themselves maybe not out in terms of a B O
beneficial for the government but more about people yes I think I mean is a similar point I really I really I think I was really really want to stress here that I think and With this mathematics science I think it's
incredibly important that people as in everybody the layman politicians everybody really understand what it can offer what it can't offer on what this can't offer is telling you that you need to immediately going to this space into
this and so on it's not this this doesn't give you control or it doesn't give you is an understanding for why people at doing things in the way they can manage highlights areas and you can improve liking it like and
focusing on education or other things that divide areas all you as well this was a really big thing that came out in each ETSI like focusing on
those kind of ideas and it doesn't and this is not a control thing I think that people generally and understandably wary and science and technology controlling their lives and I think there are examples in the past where sorry the mathematical models like this something completely
he's and and been promised you can promise the world things they just can't do it I mean that the global economic crisis is a in some part of the the result of a people irresponsibly using mathematical models I think it's really important incredibly important that these kind
of things do exist because I really believe in them but I also think it's really important that people make the effort to understand the limitations of mathematical models of these ions and limitations because I made it but I think
it's it's really important that people that you know communicate whether
limitations idea and yet the
and I 1st of all i'd like to thank you again on behalf of from audience for a very insightful and interesting talk and you know some of you have from so I happened to the along in when the riots broke out in being a sociologist losses being a little bit of right experience as an observer and I went from a
conjunction to high need to bricks and prominent scientist to serve what's happening and and I made some observations that found quite interesting and failing somehow but 1st of all I saw that on the contrary to what the media and showed us like it us some of them have a picture like of of the people on in fact districts unlike to search people of the inhabitants of bricks employment and so on to the like
against what what was happening down the street and their shops and so on so they strongly oppose the looting and stealing and everything that is interestingly enough they were like lining up on the street it and they they're doing and they were applauding of the police when they finally came in but that didn't stop the looters although the there are like the clear
majority whereas follow Turkish owners under the following you stand up armed themselves and pushed
the that within no time like you don't mess with the city and no duration was
being looted and I found interesting
because if you have ever watched the 1st of my may arise for example in Istanbul that you you clearly see that they have a whole different tradition in writing like it's way more like if they they got
the right pattern everybody knows what it is it's not organized scales
Kynaston everybody knows where to go when the police reference that works and so on and so I am I found
that in in in democratic societies where you give up like all of the responsibility local what's happening in your neighborhood and also like them and the a member of the of all it just about as supported vital things that given the thing that you write that you have held the population you can act as a status using talk like from
from Tallinn if something happens call
the police and they will come fatal so without an whereas in other countries and you have to do the work yourself and found maybe you also problematic indications for us and and I think 1 of there's a wide and
if it's the same here and in the in the in the paper is really make a big deal out of any story where somebody tried to intervene and then they go you know there was like I say and those example a while ago where and and and and start and source and and the teenagers doing something industry from exactly what it was when I didn't tell them often the
most that sensitive papers make a really big deal any case where somebody who into these end up being injured and I think that there is a general sense of the and across the
UK if you get involved and and if you try and stop somebody from doing something you
end up coming back when you finally get some of the hand of something of a or any kind of academic and even if it just as somebody who lives in London and something is the case that would certainly be the reason why I might hold back and wait for the police to get there but you're right that you made
you does seem strange things
people saying clearly outnumber why would be possible to take control so thank you very much thank you and your costly played with a lot of other questions if that's you