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After the Next Attack: Terrorism in the Trump Era

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but I it up to but I think is it is what it the and what types of
that attempt to to the every once in the right
room uh some of you in the audience have read the right of for this talk you probably recognize that I was wrong and please don't misunderstand me that's not a bad thing I wish on like this every day for the rest of my life but unfortunately I probably won't be wrong for long my prediction was that there would be some form of
an attack was a assigned into the so in it is not known in the and prune and that's the this latter to kill the but I've never said them this is the revenue for the it here this is this in the and this should upper all the data that actually I guess I was wrong twice that of anyway my prediction was that there'd be some form of an attack in the United States or possibly in the foreign territories or interests my talk would have been a breakdown or dissection and contextualization of the events and of course so far and the Trump administration there's no attack well at least the real ones but some of us might remember Bowling Green the situation is set up in such an awful way in the world we live in it seems so unpredictable I'm sure many of you feel that and that we recognize that even the smallest event could be truly explosive on a planetary scale just to tell you a little bit about myself I've been studying this topic a radical Islamic thought and governmental
reactions to political radicalism for about 15 years now I've done field work and know some of the most influential figures policymakers and thinkers in this domain uh I had lunch with some London secretary from the eighties and nineties but I've also stayed with everyone from modern Albright is logic I like to joke that I'm 1 degree of separation from Obama and was some of the but most of the people who I think are even more important to understanding
what will happen after the next attack are not household names these are diplomats financiers military figures lawyers politicians and activists mostly operating in the Arab world these can be people whose job description on their business card may not actually fit what they really do in real life I talked to several people at various lengths uh told about the stock and you know how I can short and uh promise that they would remain anonymous I what they thought would happen With 1 constant being Donald Trump which is not quite the right constant today will have a curated mental exercise to think about what will happen when the unthinkable happens I'll start with background information then delve into some pretty grim scenarios and end with prospects in a post from future the the I wanna start out a very basic here the 1st question that comes to mind of course
is what is an attack and this is not as obvious as amazing an attack from 1 point of
view you can come in 2 rather distinct forms when I mean here's something very specific and comes from like the intelligence committees lingo and they come in 2 forms the lone wolf attack is conceived planned and executed largely within 1 consciousness it's 1 guy almost 100 % these kinds of attacks are committed by males the size of the world's in crisis and it's his mission to do something violent this is the Fort Hood shooting this the truck attack attacking knees and even here in the Christmas market Berlin and even in my opinion this is the Boston Marathon shootings and then buying and that would happen somebody know the basic idea here is
that whatever contact we had with the external world it was of minimal importance to the execution of the attack the chat room discussion that kind of YouTube recruitment video that they have in their browser history even if they got a little bit of help from someone that's actually insignificant because the attack would have happened regardless of that it is more than 1 piece of data that explains a person's when pixel does not represent a complete image in my opinion lone wolf attacks the best state within the context of mental health psychology psychiatric imbalance family history rather than in the context of larger scheme matter like geo politics economics religions ideology or whatever the 2016 Orlando shooting at the LGBT club pulse is this exam is the example of this parks along the shooter clearly had problems but the existential status of the global jihad was not 1 of them remember the most successful lone wolves are actually white guys like the Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh and more recently James Holmes the uh dark nite or should on the other side the network attack uh all the different nodes are important for the planning execution and even understanding of the attack the these connections color understanding of what happened and why it happened and these connections don't even have to be true as in the case of Saddam saying in 9 11 the worst kind of connections is when someone links in the extreme is for instance like you and Iran and Hezbollah to al-Qaida this is nonsense because the Shenzhen the conflict right now is more or less absolute unless you come from a nonreligious perspective but there is also a nonsense from the other side for example when Muslims connects of Russia with the United States who read that actually may be happening now but I want to get you to the idea that when things are complicated they need
closer and closer analysis and network is
aware and attack it can happen in a way that normal people who are outside the network don't and the reasons for this are complicated networks can be linked to the because of shared values and interests were shared hostility toward the target within that shared hostility the term agitated means those people who welcome or even encourage attack with everyone from religious figures giving sermons to relatives friends strangers on the street or on the internet anyone who encourages some kind of action enablers are more links uh to be attacked because their support was critical for the execution of the attack the agitators can be neighbors by providing financial logistical support some enablers may simply be helping the attack for other reasons as to make money if the enabler is in the black market for guns or explosives they can be indifferent to the costs of the primary concern for them is of course making money last but differ a lot least you have the fighters to execute the attack and I say fighters and not terrorists jihadi is I don't even like the word combatant because that would include some agitators they're not certain enablers I think we need a simpler term for those guys were committing the violence and fighters fits the bill i analytical level fighters
supported by network is why the attacks in Paris for instance in the but uh was significantly different from the attack in the nightclub in Orlando when things get complicated I like to rely on theoretical frameworks that can handle complexity and none are more complicated than the classroom on and systems theory and so you may know that if you know the 1 then you know that I can kill this room with boredom faster than you can say sociocybernetics but I promise you won't try not to uh and network is a kind of social system
luminance idea is that a social system become self-aware through communication and to making a distinction between itself and its environment if the same messages communicated over and over again that distinction becomes stronger and stronger and what I want you to imagine is how Muslims thinking
of themselves and their environment with the rise of Trump and other hyper nationalist movements and I want you to think of Trump himself as a reality television star some ones most important work revolves around the idea of the reality of the mass media how things are made real by repetition and distribution for the on the number
of copies of a piece of media that the number of times a gets duplicated is important and even if not all the pieces are consumers so safer trashing newspapers printed in large enough numbers even if it isn't red the fact that there are a million copies circulating matters to the construction of reality so all those copies of built or son were those you newspapers you don't actually read the influence of the world around in a significant way this was a development or really a break from Marshall McLuhan's you know the media medium is the message that to being something more like an equation or media times distribution equals the message repetition here is the important factor and um this is reception and you may know him from recent shows like the Knight of war that had high pop group sweatshop boys or even further back the best film ever made about terrorism uh in Europe of 4 lines which are highly highly recommend here he is speaking
it to British parliament about the representation of Muslims in the British media and this really sums up the situation try describe quite nicely from the Muslim side yourself in magazines billboards see the field it's a message that that you matter call the national school reading more value if feel represented now if we failed to represent people In all means narratives of switch off it treats the new narratives to filter bubbles online and sometimes even of the seeing in the mind of the ice is crude he's a legend James Bond or right in your mind in wanting to the good guy who seems license propaganda because it it cut like achieves waste countenance where telling these kids that they can be he was also used the day and so interesting so receives use a Gallup poll who's so the being most things and took he's a new student on of consulting job lead and is really interesting also billion Muslims was a key grievances we call called west of problems with that tell what what what grievances n number 1 was conversation for another day but you know that the disconnect between the West stated that uniform policy to learn about ability to have an effect and the number 2 on the list of grievances was the depiction things in the media it In
a talk I gave in the last chaos congress I discuss the depiction of Muslim and Arab males and video games particularly first-person shooters my thesis is the clashes digitalization the response to Samuel Huntington's Clash of Civilizations idea is about the danger of when people start
interpreting things in this kind of black and white when we repeat the message over and over again in all forms of media both sides do this not just the west this is like versus darkness this is an Arabic noroviruses Hillier this is the kind of discourse that gets
us nowhere close to the to the conflict is quite literally what fuels the fire for me
specs the question what is civilization is the ability to invade 2 thirds of the world the no it isn't civilization is the ability to bring peace and prosperity to the world that had not seen before the forces the drop that that drive us away from this vision of progress so diverse and they are riddled by misunderstanding greedy and above all ignorance which to me is the real meaning of barbarism it's real the real Jack earlier the crazy situation we find ourselves in deftly sees the world in negative terms the thinking goes if the Muslim world can get civilized than populist racist political movements in the US and Europe will gain power over the military and force them into submission a domestic attack is the perfect reason to do so virtually the 1st thing the Trump administration did when it came to power was force the Muslim banter to travel and United States I feel that attack this kind of policy will increase tremendously even
today the banning of laptops and tablets on flights from the Gulf on obvious example of racism disguising itself as protective paranoia comparing the 2 presidencies of course is difficult because they have such radical different that radically different personalities if the dope Obama Doctrine can be summarized it is don't do stupid shit both presidents inherited significant card conflicts and infrastructure to handle those conflicts the intelligence military uh symbiosis had definite ideas about how to wage the war with mass surveillance and expensive wars what Obama chose to do is only discounted to succumb to those targets that were pushed upon him that maximize returns in terms of games
unfortunately this largely backfired this is a analogy an American among was killed in a drone strike in Yemen and is now the leading figure of jihad on you too after is that he's the kind of a theorist of the lone wolf attacks in jeopardy thought because he himself went through a lot of surveillance his basic message for what choose that if you don't do that you don't trust anyone if you wanna go a suicide mission you just go ahead and do it don't tell anyone ahead of time this it was a clear factor is an influence to
the Fort Hood shooter archer try to contact and uh and also the couple from San Bernardino he's a figure that would normally be condemned by mainstream Muslims except he was killed by a drunk strike without trial the 1st US citizen on records since the American Civil War along with his son who was also killed during Obama's time and his daughter who was killed in the 1st Special Forces Mission ordered by Donald Trump this is the very definition of doing stupid ship and the fact that there was no trial or major public inquiry into the matter is a massive so or insult to the Muslim community around the world this over here is
Erik Prince the picture he showing is where he does for a living some of you might know the name
Blackwater that's the company founded and then renamed many times prince is the son of a billionaire he's also an ex navy seal and 1 of the most elite special operations units in the US military if the American presidency is a kind of Game of Thrones than Erik Prince is Jimmy like Jamie Erik Prince serve multiple rains but of course they have a favorite his house last of his family donated
millions the from campaign and his sisters that the divorce the current education secretary tying sisters are kind of a touchy subject in the game of Thrones shows well say that you feel you need and Prince started training American law enforcement focused on shooting on school shootings after mine uh but he became the head of the biggest mercenary network this happened after 9 11 with support from Cheney Rumsfeld and the CIA but the reason his business grew is uh because of the possibility for deniability vertically when things go wrong the way was modeled as that they had contractors and subcontractors as a way to disperse blame and to have these kind of covert assassinations were technically against the law he is someone who has a top-secret clearance the year President Trump and according to some reports has become a kind of secret envoy for the present he also happens to be under investigation and for different countries for war crimes a million people I talk to actually get mentioned Eric friends but he's a mercenary a page fighter in a war and a libertarian who believes in limited government though initially supported by Cheney and Rumsfeld his operation expanded along with the expansion of the war on terror and now he's the most influential private military contractors even bigger than the company's image Prince wants the the the privatization of special forces and security basically the most sensitive parts of a modern state he's even quoted as saying that he once Blackwater to due to the military what FedEx that to the Postal Service the Blackwater went through extensive rebranding since their fighters shot of innocent civilians in a crowded market in Iraq besides having their own drone program is now building his own air force that would be capable of dropping bombs and
this makes several questions the 1st of which can corporations wage war also isn't peace and bad for business and there are no wars to fight then what these guys do at this point it's
particularly interesting because some of the most important generals analyzes were trained by Blackwater this is agglomeration shiny who's actually from Georgia on the Black Sea and he was trained as part of the Islamic martyr rebel against the show has has the 2nd you cross the border from Iraq to Syria he joined the group dividend slow which was the 1st allied with al-Qaida and would eventually become since this is the very definition of stupid shit
and the stupidity gets better somehow and the trumpeter this is Sebastian worker the most public White House expert on radical Islam and deputy assistant to President from there is some significant evidence that he's a connected to an anti-Semitic organization hungry Gorgo was uh Gauguin as suggested that an appropriate reaction to a terrorist attack in the United States is to bomb the grand shrine in Mecca this is the most important location this long the direction Muslims pray to 5 times a day and I want to emphasize that this this is 1 of the leading experts on radical Islam the Trump administration unfortunately the best experts
on Islamic Jihad occur currently too busy fighting each other these are the 2 French academics Olivier Award and give can and they're at a very public @ @ @ uh Lydia while believes that radicalism is being Islamized or basically that the majority of attacks are being done by sides using Islamic rhetoric to justify the violence it's a paradigm that's more akin uh to criminology Capello on the other hand sees the problem to be within Islam itself that is islam is being radicalize because the the rest of West is too easy on Islamic conservatism which is creating a bubble within Europe and Canada structural stress to the system I think both are functionally wrong because they're not paying attention to the larger scope of the problem not just focusing on the social system to use the
monster but also on the global environment the system is operating from the media and Muslims are exposed to reinforces their alienation the constant security regime that physically searches person when they go to an airport or virtually infects the computers and phones with surveillance software it's interesting to hear reports from ISIS fighters about how free they feel themselves to be 1 an Islamic state that they can finally breathe and so on fighting the problem is a big part of the problem and this kind of a lack of reflexive realization is really an issue and here I want people in the audience to think about the next attack in this kind of way like boom years it's a limited lone wolf attack or was it a network multihead attacked like September 11 this makes a difference because the reactions can be the small symbolic inappropriate which I don't think anyone's expecting from the Trump administration for it's gonna be large pervasive in catastrophic the worst case scenario is not so much the attack it's the aftermath of the attack what will the Trump administration do will someone like worker sway the situation room to bomb again but this is literally the stupidest thing they can do is 1 . 5 1 . 6 billion Muslims would basically began writing in unison but let's think about the 2nd stupidest thing which is repeating the George W. Bush
the formula of invading another country as Frank reader the spokesman for the Chaos Computer Club recently discussed the price of oil may be the major factor in the future cost between the US and the rest the world and he spoke about in the context of North Korea Russian China but it's equally true for the Middle East currently there is a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia and Yemen and have a lot the predictions on hearing is that Yemen even more so than sirius is the prime candidate for America's Next intervention in the Middle East the reason being should be obvious from this picture because if you stop the vessels going through the Suez Canal almost half the world's oil progress through this charade and much of the world's trade and if you think this sounds
crazy consider the president trumps 1st foreign trip as the Saudi Arabia I know he's known for being unpredictable but the scanners Abrahamic religions tour of salary Israel Vatican but I don't think it's just silly symbolism
and other people agree that the western economy right now is thriving because of the low price of oil the top 10 countries with proven oil reserves 6 some of the majority countries to events into a more Venezuelan Russia so in the case of an all-out war America has to rely on its own oil in Canada which is shale and now mostly fracking so it's pretty expensive and 1 of the scenarios that was largely discussed was that the sovereign wealth funds of the at states would be invest from the United States and the gulf economies are also the top investors in the current economic water of the largest public funds 5 to 7 are from well rich states and also 14 sorry most of the investment is in the United States and Western Europe if these Muslim countries feel threatened by the idiocy by the privatization of the conflict along the borders many of them have uh responded kept going for the
scenario D investing from the west even at a loss as a form of influencing policy that they worries that something like the Islamic state is here to stay in the Iraq Syria region no matter how the wars waged the most related Muslims will in the world will find themselves there and this presents a fear for neighboring states most of the financial support to they're kind of neighboring existential threat is coming from their own subjects these regimes are
paying for stability and if they don't get their money's worth you have to find other sources of stability right now that the opposition uh shifts of of Twitter uh this this strategy would completely satisfied the Islamic opposition in the gulf
I know there is this image of radical Muslims in the Gulf kind of financially supporting ISIS but the trend isn't that clear this was true from 2011 to 2015 they now see ISIS and Irish as a Western plot to make their movement look bad they discuss the prevalence of recent converts the access to Western weapon systems and they really expect here with them on doctrinal issues like the Khalsa after all those after the fall the Brotherhood in Egypt they kind of are rightfully pessimistic about like the democratization of the Middle East for them violence that in the name of Islam is not Islamic is rather a symptom of the problems in the Arab world after the so called Arab Spring figures like Barry who is usually sympathetic to radical Islamic Liberation Movements cause dij counter-revolutionaries and other shit got hammered Lally since he regrets raising millions to the Syrian opposition without knowing more about their views when they see the allegations of Trump colluding with Putin their reaction is we've been saying this all along Erik Prince now actually has a residence and I will be where is in close contact with the crown prince and apparently China is now a big investor in his security business but is it really a
security business or merely a business focused on keeping a state of perpetual war and low oil prices it's OK to be wrong about forecasting the future it's not OK as members of civilized societies to suspend our most closely held values because of contingency or more officially phrase a state of emergency this clearly will not and in the next 4 years but what we will see is the most ridiculous expressions of emergency law we're already seeing and hence if you work in security if you work in the legal political bureaucratic or military field don't focus on the emergency as much as you should focus on the situation where the person and the person in front of you and how to get them through this without making the situation worse without
increasing the alienation that's an intelligent way to get through the next 4 years and then maybe we can support a realistic candidate that can genuinely be a conduit for peace activists need to keep this in mind when they decide on how to support a candidate if they care about the future of the and sorry I'm not that optimistic about Jared Kirsten invited trump kind of solving the Middle East issue and as you I truly believe in long term that the path of peace will take a form of a truth and reconciliation commission analyzing ending once and for all the war on terror it will be global in
scope and the truth part will start to get an accurate figures on the number of casualties sustained in the Muslim world during during the war on terror the reconciliation should take the form of financial and logistical compensation for the death and destruction that was already inflicted currently the Warner finest and has cost more in today's dollars than the Marshall Plan did did to rebuild Europe after World War Two the Marshall Plan infuse cash to 16 European countries that have far more complicated economies in 1945 that Afghanistan is today this kind of war where Marines carried duffel bags full of cash to warlords to appease them and to secure the from the alliance the United States has only added more fuel to the fire in today Afghanistan as well the most corrupt countries in the plan this is clearly not the values of the West broadly defined you guys stop fighting each other after world war 2 but you need to stop fighting your other others you make choices with the media you consume as well as the media you condone when you see a show that depicts young Muslim man as key factor terrorist you need to reject that shows racist and to be repulsed by it as if you sign anti-Semitic show or a show that's racist towards black people this repulsion needs to come from the same source as your fear about a terrorist attack because they are connected people like Trump people like the independent thankfully occurred fielders maybe the time is up but they still have time to kind of cause significant damage it's on time to think about the future after the next attack and not so much obsess about the fear of the attack itself thank you very much thank
you thank you in the a jump up here has thank you very much so upset on this topic some are there any questions to sell yeah and was the only 1 like this I 1st so I would erode of a sovereign wealth fund the sole excuse migrants but if it's 1 point you said that uh rich countries will stop investing unit because data the investment because they values security in around their neighbors so my question is isn't sort theory via for example also funding ISIS or some other group in the in the war in the region this is kind of a misunderstanding
that they did find in the beginning of the arab spring anything that was entered the show as uh the proxy war that was actually happening in Iraq was kind of a different free-ranging comfort where there are more interested in the safety of Sunnis living in Iraq and this this wasn't there small sums of money but it also wasn't a continuous check and it didn't seem to have come uh with influence that was a kind of superficial so then declaring the Caliphate very much goes against the official study regimes of view of itself in view of the world the idea that in the past so they funded ISIS that will be found in the future and currently it's not looking that way at all so it's looking like it's almost now a autonomous units that can self sustained by selling Y on the black market for instance the the idea that there are ideologically aligned is actually misinformed I don't think that uh outside Eurebiur wants to have an Islamic state because they're nervous that would expand to Saudi Arabia naturally and here you have to make a distinction between say the Saudi people or know study Regina and of course you you're talking about a very large groups and there is a small percentage inside Arabia and the gulf that to support prices but I think those numbers are actually comparable to where you have in Europe more or less than the actual study region like the Minister of Defence probably once I system go way more than anyone else for that answers Russian we add to your right solids and
there's no the question high so my question is more about social media so we know the biases and other writers groups that recruit from there but we also know that the right wing nationalists live on Twitter and very happy there so in terms of curbing that using technological measures so we can detect racism and we can detect them right wing rhetoric and Islamic credits how you think those kind of tools should work without in really centering the freedom of speech and taking that into account to my point of view about it is that the freedom of speech is a central human rights value that I don't necessarily uh in my 1 were kind of negotiate with the way I look at the problem is actually more aggregates are social feelings as war at the other end and I think the the true uh uh origins of these negative feelings feelings of being disgraced of of being at a disadvantage of being alienated and it's like the uh resentment quote like the idea that when they see heroes in says that they feel sympathetic owed to the cause and maybe even the all tried like the 4 chance and whatever when they see Donald Trump and everyone's against them again in the sense of group feeling and and I'm more interested in how
to diffuse those of feelings and I think that governments have a lot of agency to actually do this instead of spending trillions on military infrastructure we should maybe standard on infrastructure infrastructure or projects to give you know the Muslim world carnival float in a kind of uh in the model of the Marshall Plan that instead of repeating the world war 1 and world war 2 there are like you know what the sky the Germans busy to build their order bonds you know other things having a similar thing has to happen in the Arab world and a real kind of honest reflection and income redistribution and this is might be actually some new moms who opt fro kind of in a weird way pro trump because he's the acceleration of they want their own regions to realize that maybe United States is in the best ally to have and that this will eventually kind of say maybe we need to invest in other things on the United States I I don't look forward to an Internet that sensors and I hope it doesn't but I think there there other experts here that actually do that has this specific things and thank you very much for this really
great images to talk common you mentioned the Marshall plan and that's something that needs to be part of the Truth and Reconciliation Process of all that I find very interesting a key element for the Marshall plan at least in in western Europe was that money went into functional or a uh starting to find she democracies come so the money was not spent and in non-democratic society at least in western Europe so what's a connection with your idea of a Marshal Fund and 2 . 0 no and to democratization in the Middle East I hate to say this because uh I think it should be self-evident that we have the
technology to have even a more advanced system and the Marshall plan uh so for instance where the largest backers for Transparency International's actually Kuwait which has a lot of corruption of it there there are in a sense of local civic society organizations that are really really pissed off at the duffel bags full of cash uh exchanging hands and that if we actually had a system where we track dollar by dollar where things are going and how they're being spent that this could be way better administrative than the Marshall Plan say but it's it's kind of heartbreaking that instead of that they give it to Blackwater who gives it to 100 men uh mercenaries who gives it to another you know like that the idea is that this isn't helping this is actually part of the problem and we need to in a sense be convinced of our own rhetoric which I think is really a problem the democratization narrative after the arab spring but people didn't think that Cairo Egypt would be ready for democracy and that we didn't give the mossy experiment the chance to play itself out which may be now in retrospect was a bad idea the the intensity of the much we'll talk a like this ideal of glacial digitization much
so it was the actual number of um I've just 1 question you talk about alienation from all the people living in the US or in the west of the Muslim population but what all the people from Tunisia all all your obvious whole lot of them are going to the uh batch and to them up the poorest 1 sold how you can explain this thing the 2 needed is actually a super interesting case because uh
it's actually more of the Arab recruits some statistics say the Tunisians are the most and communes have been involved in a lot of the terrorist attacks also in Europe and the other clients of words and the Arab Spring also started in Tunisia uh with the self-immolation but it's 1 of those things that is under study that understand why it's going on in Tunisia and part of the reason from my point of view is because of a big part of the Palestinian refugee community lives in Tennessee that this is actually kind of a factor that they see the injustice very much firsthand and uh past scenes in Tunisia integrating in a way that they're not in other places so I think this is also shows you how the Israeli-Palestinian crisis is still kind of 1 of the strong Fisher points and to understand that in the context of the 21st century is actually really complicated but Jeff Tunisia is a point of conflict of both in the Middle East and in Europe and we need
to understand this if you don't and I on you point out thing quite correct that 1 of the major problems in the with this whole issue is the of the representation and the perception of young Muslims in the western society and I was wondering arm what your reaction was when the sum for example when the travel ban 1st came down and when the immediate response in the US but was you know you have to arm protesters shutting down major airports and you know basically saying you know we're not having any about and you know got the courts dancing in we actually can do this president or not but do you think is a step in the right direction so I think the protest movement has to keep going and has to do it at a very high register and I'm sort of nervous that they can't maintain it when the 1st travel ban
happened I travel very frequently between United States and Great Germany and I got very nervous and paranoid even about flying in uh and thankfully I don't have any problems with the 1st time I flew and I felt there was a lot of attention from my friends on the other side but then after the 2nd or 3rd time my friends were like a we need to give you pretty more and this is actually like you know when you put your goddamn as might be 1 of the most dangerous as at work especially because I do these public talks that sometimes convention and and this is the kind of making me nervous like uh aclu the Electronic Frontier Foundation all the civil society things have to worry about 50 I think because they're going to have encounter a lot of case law uh for specific instances and they have to develop new systems that to get through the 4 years and possibly longer and other infrastructures the set up a regime change in the United States of
and the thank you very much that in the area of this another question we still have some time left to and I think it's a tell the words investigate for them but with the right and hello and so my question is why did you name your and whole presentation and that the reason mean that from around like what is going to be sold as a fake what is from going to do so interesting if here there's your attention you vary the terrorist vacuum in United States compared is today times Applebaum all Hillary Clinton if she was chosen I think the
major thing is the potential for overreaction are a special because he surrounded himself with military generals that will in a way that that this is the distribution of the American military system is that there's a civilian branch of the military branch now x generals are in charge of the civilian branch so they're very in a way oriented towards making missions and doing things that are inactive level rather than say diplomacy or thinking about longer repercussions and it shows you like uh my impression or the reader the White House was that the aliki for case file was very much pushed uh no Obama's face until he actually authorize that and it's clear that they want to finish it off when that from became to power and his analogous daughter died in uh right after that I I think the trumpet error will be more trigger and uh in these kind of limited attacks at the same system that Obama set up but the real fear is the ban in uh the White House initiative office are strategic initiative office which is changing the entire idea between the chief of staff and so the more decision-making process and we've seen that Trump is being pulled away from the stuff but he also when he's put in a corner seems to take advice from people who are not authorized in this figure is like Eric princes someone you're should uh maybe focus more about that it's going to be hyper privatized and is going to be a lot of deniability over like no America didn't do anything these were some company or whatever and I think this will actually start looking more and more like Arabic private security firms so you're going to have these private mercenaries that looks like it's in Arabic firm uh doing missions in Syria Iraq or whatever and they're going to have 0 oversight from United States even though not to get too conspiratorial but this is where it looks like it's having him moving to of of of is evidence and setting up an investment firm that's connected with China also highly suspicious and the predict the unpredictable is kind of uh a losing game right that you really can't predict with you can think about because it's seen in as unthinkable by definition but I want to set up a system of thought for a way for people like normal people to think about say is this a crazy person who just shot up a club in some city or is this a coordinated attack with multiple people and needed very strategic equipment and all this stuff and this makes a difference right it gives you an idea of how competent uh people are reacting to the current situation so this is why the Trump error I do believe is going to be different than and I hope not I hope somehow the this this strange will continue but it's not that optimistic and so the and so so
this is what I mean I have some some issues with your talk so the 1 um is I think it's very tempting to look at these conflicts and pick names and then describe the conflict by pointing at some persons and that gives us old impression as if there were some key players who push of conflict in a certain direction and who actively propagate the conflict in a certain way of looking at someone like every Prince yet it's very tempting it's good branding Blackwater its name we've most of us recognize in 1 way or the other the fact is that companies like Blackwater exist for the last 30 years in many places around the globe outside Europe all perception because they're not as well branded the way and they happen to act more in other cut in places like like Africa so it but if you then look and look at these conflicts and to point out key players it's it becomes like this and then painted like a conspiracy theory that there is a key players in a work together in the but the whole thing I will work on this issue myself for quite some time and have a presentation the day after tomorrow on this somewhat of a um topic m the problem with this conflict is that everything 1 even the people involved thing they they play the system and the play the game and the control everyone's around them and then date that creates the axioms for groups like Isis the field by a chance it's more a coincidence that ISIS comes into power and something we have to deal with it but so it's I think it's very problematic if you then happened so indeed act with those people and they would be we never get to a to a good conclusion on that if you try to understand and this conflict in in a way where we have 2 key players who brought us here actively good question and the way I
would respond is I'd look at how the system is incentivized what does it mean in the post-Cold War world that the largest employer in the world is the United States Department of Defense uh that has the largest budget of any single entity and what does it mean when you have people who are profiteers of war what's their incentive structure and the metaphor usually here policy analyst talking about is that the described them like doctors so when doctor's cure a patient they have other patients to cure correct but in this case in the middle east in particular in the patient seems to be kept in a 6 states that the amount of money that is being circulated both for uh I on paper cause instability in the region verses that will help but this coming from the region is in a way that there is a a a margin of profiteering that is just higher that's why is there a black market of oil how can we you know they can search every part of your body but yet they can't locate oil tankers that are coming out of the Islamic State seems absurd that these resources aren't allocated properly on the 1 hand this the most basic level and the right yeah picking on Eric princess kind of in a way easy but he has been an innovator in this field in the same way that you would say Steve Jobs has been with smartphones but he's really changed how uh people think about the private military contractors that wasn't these big companies that are parts of like Halliburton or uh McDonnell Douglas or whatever that these guys aren't just creating infrastructure that these guys are actually providing military strategic objectives on demand in from taking out someone to managing a secret prison you know which is the different requirements of a terrorism error than the cold war era for instance right like there's no need for nuclear arsenals and so forth you need more like fast movement and and you're right it's not an easy um uh 1 to 1 to blame Erik Prince for all of these problems is reacting to the times but is also profiteering from and I I was in a way tempted uh also to bring up and and to bring up the uh other figures that are causing psychological issues to be in place and I think they need to be scrutinized I really do I think the prices do a better job of reporting the connections for instance that the some Bernardino shooter his brother worked for Blackwater a like I'm not saying this in a conspiratorial tone I'm just saying this is an environment of heightened and profiteering violence you know about the whole thing to this the whom I guess I'm I'm I'm a product the note that that that that brings you did could 10 m if I do a presentation could say well I
admit disguise is sort of a say that he he's also connected to these people that doesn't really help that really that really is lost
and it creates this term environment of conspiracies and these these guys like and stupid like porker begin did just get just crazy people now that with that with the mean environment being people start listening to them they just they have no idea what they're talking about and so now we we surround them we share them we we them and I want them in this conspiracy theory it's just not there we shouldn't let them operate in
the shadows and you're right my degrees of separation cause me to get searched in various places to get scrutinized by intelligent that works in different ways it definitely colors my view of the conflict you know and to say in in a way I think you're doing this kind of scientific thing where an objective reality if you look at things in a laboratory I don't think that's how it works I think feelings and how people are approaching the issue really much comes with conflict I think this is largely an emotional battlefield have a few final words you talk and wonderfully coming up so you have a high that the idea of taking a step back in the country the national
level of different countries of the USA for example of what are your thoughts on how easy and how simple it can be for people to access tons of small arms generally and then use them in very destructive ways and settings different uh again to go back to the scene we have the technology right a single fall and can track every manufactured bulletin this world that you have an identification number and you can show this chains of of transmission we have the computing power to do this we choose not to small arms there is like a growth industry right now in Belgium and Austria and so forth and these are where weapons that are ending up in the battlefield and so a civil society we need to be demanding not just from like the United States like that from your western european countries like a who are we saying these guns to can we have more oversight about who gets them and in what context and even if you only do it for 5 a 10 % of small arms I think you can still in a way make a dent in understanding how this black shadow we market working we hope that this was the this both the OK thank you among the thank you all those
ages they are or what will
come from different and Haney
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Metadaten

Formale Metadaten

Titel After the Next Attack: Terrorism in the Trump Era
Serientitel re:publica 2017
Autor Al-Zaid, Saud
Lizenz CC-Namensnennung - Weitergabe unter gleichen Bedingungen 3.0 Deutschland:
Sie dürfen das Werk bzw. den Inhalt zu jedem legalen Zweck nutzen, verändern und in unveränderter oder veränderter Form vervielfältigen, verbreiten und öffentlich zugänglich machen, sofern Sie den Namen des Autors/Rechteinhabers in der von ihm festgelegten Weise nennen und das Werk bzw. diesen Inhalt auch in veränderter Form nur unter den Bedingungen dieser Lizenz weitergeben.
DOI 10.5446/33051
Herausgeber re:publica
Erscheinungsjahr 2017
Sprache Englisch

Inhaltliche Metadaten

Fachgebiet Informatik
Abstract This talk rests on two rather foreseeable predictions. First is that there will be a mass casualty attack in the United States in the early days of the Trump administration. Second, that the attack will be connected to "Islamic Terrorism" even before all the facts have been established. I will break down reactions from both official and unofficial channels, then put those reactions in a historical context to predict future escalation, which I've recently defined as a "Clash of Digitalizations".

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