Data Vis or: Why you don't believe in facts, and how to fix it

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Data Vis or: Why you don't believe in facts, and how to fix it
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In the 18th century, we believed that a society should be based on reason. In the 19th century, we started to collect that reason in form of data. Now we are in the 21st century, where we proudly look at the enormous mountain of data we gathered. "Impressive," our old ancestors say. "Your society must be really reasonable." And we stare back at them, and then we look away, ashamed.
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the idea of what the and if we think of taking the heat and water and all
that not to and the lower 1 I'm
in very happy to be here thanks for having me so you might say that that man today I want to talk about a very special person you and that's you it's also need
them at every 1 of us we all standing on a wall of height facts and it born that parts of Chairman's would say well OK I know how to
thank them on a concepts with different levels of sent certainty but somebody don't know that climate change is real but we know in 97 % of climate experts agree that humans are responsible for causing global warming and any except these facts the set believing them Adam and Eve says about what the snake as married people believe make as found companies and do we search for text and to go to church and these are also very important for an article discussions because we need to make we on what's happening before we can decide what we should do but it seems like a lots of people these days don't go to the 2nd step like lots of people these days seem to believe other fag then then ask it almost seems like a setting on another quality of truth to have another reality of that's that's of course not the case I can have those same reality as we do so this is a big question I want to answer and I was really curious about that Biden they believe in things that are not true I have a personal interest in that I and my daily job is to point effects and visualizing data and designing information some of you know I'm taking data from the sensor of 1 set to think studies and say look look at these let's have a good discussion based on these facts and then publishing his data
on in different media the Sesame yes it so the down to answer the question
how can I be a better datavisualization because I have a problem with people don't believe the fact that I'm showing to them and want to answer these questions in 3 parts 1st I want to explain the false belief actually come from and I want to go on and extend my so hard to get rid of them and then we might explore how to believe more true things so the answer to the 1st question then defaults please come from is obvious of course the know what it's fake
news all i'd like thinking is a thing we've all talked about a lot and I actually think
that sharing constructed information them constructed realities on social media is
more like a symptom of the whole problem another cost I would argue that 1 of the main causes of binary belief all its 4 things is actually to
idealisations the old social animals like humans are extremely social people and social support the small important and fast and believing in anything flexible file a like climate change and the 1st 1 to
make sure that people understand who we are like we want to define ourselves and believes information can be a Markov identity defining literally means to limit and to bound and that's what we want to do which while our memories allow and our identities this is especially important when it comes to show who's team be on I like the 1 to make sure that people see that you had members of the tribe that fall of our family of our Facebook group of our to defeat them of all unmindful you want to make sure that people understand that is still in that and we see a lot in the U. S. election last year you
I'm I'm pretty sure you know these 2 pictures and the Washington Post did experiements they showed to I'm supporters these 2 pictures the left 1 is from Thompson alkylation into doesn't 17 and a white 1 from Obama's integration and those 9 and then they ask their readers nasty time support as 1 menstrual are more people better you see more people on the left on a wide and also from support especially is that that on the left photo at farms operations are more people and it's not because the perceptions Flautre because they just can't see it it's because this information doesn't matter to them besides showing whose team they they want to make sure that young people know all was female on it's not about truth was a slide it's about the at the Moses our team and it's not just showing the thing on but
also showing who you can't west I twice is actually sadly a big big part of life some day the 2 parties in the US get more and more separate from each other so you can
see that this is happening in the government he begins see all members of the US House of was that we presented this between 1959 in 2011 and each node each thought is 1 member in the particle accountants and a clause and the dots that I have to get closer to each other in the morning equi on boats and you can see how it separate small animals over the years people don't agree on boards anymore but people outside of the party but it gives you a little bit more said if you look outside of the government we can see that
Republicans have an we unfavourable attitude to what the Democratic Party it's up from 21 per cent to 58 % and it's the same if Democrats to lots of publications from 70 per cent in 1994 2 5 55 % there in 2016 the plot thickens Mary Democrats like less than they did like 20 years ago is like announced if they could divided going more and more and they don't trust each other anymore fun factor
doesn't matter if you understand what you believe in is actually the point I want to make like these things that climate change is that what the government there so far away that it doesn't matter if you understand that it's we just there to show you try privatization show you to for example do you understand
how climate change throats actually like exactly but can you explain what's happening there act and maybe some of you can I conflict I can say we can but I know that people out on my 22nd my Facebook groups that had a lot like the only clear climate change exists and in order somebody who doesn't agree with us is not on a at white but he's not on our team the that 1 of on the talk about this are fallacies fantasies I mean as a you could be thankful another book on the top of that and I just want a point order 1 which
is generalizing from anecdotal evidence it means that you take 1 instance for example it's so cold outside made so that means climate change does exist I to take 1 point and generalize it and apply to all instances OK so OK we got these
faults believes that planted inside of us but that somebody comes along and says these you believe in X that's that's not a widely should believe something else then of course will sale can show why it that small so it's no it's not always happening you're not changing all if you don't want to basically and that's
also because of this privatization thing who really clench to all the the cost are connected to like a lot of training alone religion our education I watch electrolytes alarmed us that means any doubts that 1 believe it doubting everything along like everything is connected to us from as we have what we want and we
don't need to basically this is have prove out there enough evidence in our watch wipes
we get confirmed on an almost like daily that what we believe the story true we all believe in that so must be true that there's enough food for their for
sure if you just who you believe you will see that a solitary that's like why should you buy should you stop believing that the internet is really good for confirming your beliefs
and then this a problem of confirmation bias motivated skepticism you might have heard of confirmation bias before it means
that when the conformant of information that can actually confirm believe you remember them better question unless and you don't ignore them as much as you think about it in order the information that opposes the and and modulated skepticism
looks the other way what it means that if you see information that opposes you believe you apply more skepticism than you would normally do you must get the you remember less you need who will be pointed ordered to actually see it and emotionally you 1 example
here so this is about said that talks about the reason why we should vaccinate our kids and somebody were like a queens and has to believe that we had to go to that scenario it's I I'm reading this and I'm thinking like can't health that's international studies show that makes a lot of sense I guess so many studies done on that topic and as this 1 study published in Illinois Clinical Infectious Diseases founded individually but individuals vaccinated for inflow fostered through a factor of 50 per cent less likely to have respiratory problems the AP I guess it makes sense to if you don't have the we don't even have but you problems I am free of 1 of the the problem of this is this is not the actual text this is the actual text that's an article that argues against vaccinating OK and then we do I have a totally different approach to it like International Studies yeah wide I know what that have of studies these on definitely not peer-reviewed and like the strong electrical infected is this use i on all matters those like you know I'm sure this paper like this journal has a wee but imagine that the research community likeness and use of com will never trust any of the articles again and if any on any 1 of my Facebook friends and winning mentioning this like ever told and find them immediately we have a different approach to information based on if they confirm all of them disagree with all these and modulation although means
stronger belief the more beyond and exposed to these information that either an old pose all conformal believes the more we believe what we believe and all the books in
both directions apparently so and as they make further belief like for the benefit of fact of fine so so you my thing OK that's that's interesting and here more information about a minute OK I mean that makes sense and all this information will our beneath the investor nursing our beliefs and it calls and close and this is an area well 1st you might start thinking that's that's not what I firmly notices that the dubious but more we hear about it the more you think OK this is outrageous and fraud and other never beneath them again that's a fury we at least that's
called the backfire effective you might have thought of that the backfire effect is actually not that scientifically proven like that last idea of the opposing ideas you believe cos and as a defense mechanism so you my point of view but but careful of that idea if you find any paper also let me know on very curious
um but not just more information makes our beliefs stronger but also more intelligence if I'm sure a lot of you I like super-intelligent in the school if you exuberant and learn more intelligent than other people you have more extreme believes that people in both directions like it doesn't matter if it's true or false it just more extreme the idea here is that you actually can make up evidence and can make an argument for your beliefs the last time point I wanted talk about by this so hard to get rid of the leaves is closed-mindedness it just a personality trait basically thousand
people books that and people who are
close minus the now some people might that there are people who are better at exchanging believes and switching in out and that people can and and the and don't want to let them out basically OK and the last term
part of my talk I want to believe that I want to talk about what to believe more to with things I like all these problems how can we how can we vote against the and all the part I finally will mention some data visualization and I think it was part of the headline of my talk the 1st approach put forth a convincing someone found it almost
always comes from a place of land you want people to believed affects wide and so I OK you believe that that's optional you should really why the problem is it that doesn't we like it that we efficiently and it's like not Willie kind so maybe let's not to add
some but we can do instead is is
asking questions we can try to make them see the truth themselves we can for example asked by the you believe that and how did you come to that conclusion what would be a consequence of the of the things you believe I um at initialization that's the bell and
the thing is um Bloomberg's what's really warming developed what they did is they showed all the possible reasons the climate deniers think are true about why climate change exists so what is really bombing
but is that the size of connectivity it's not always solution no no Dewey's greenhouse gasses they show that in very many we use the word and and in the and they agree like they showed it yeah I'm sorry long it's we greenhouse gasses greenhouse gasses the 2nd reason uh
2nd approach avoids globalization that might actually look the best especially if we assume that privatization is 1 of the main reasons for false beliefs in the 1st place and here and there are different ideas 1st get to know people of other opinions and and just
listen to them don't try to convince them just little them and for try to understand why do they believe the things they believe like I want to watch a little reasons for for their beliefs in this
case you can all the but empathy for them and discover the hidden true like
these privatization reasons for example that we've talked about what it believes connected to online as doing something like that right now I think
in the corner website that ask people up to to sign up to meet somebody who had that work to meet different minded people basically 1 1 afternoon in June um changing our
attitude and there although few approaches the 1st understanding the people and not their believes that somehow
orders and if we make this like make make sure the Venice and elect for us but also communicated to other people there it is more likely that they will convince people off of information from this is although it is also speaks against this privatization idea you are not what you believe in i i t now there is a team your on but it gets really interesting if you try to
get people into the truth-seeking vote on this there's a really interesting paper called science curiosity and political information processing the talks about that individuals can use the reason for 2 ends to form believes that in this way out and we've seen that of the privatization idea and to form believes that are consistent with the best available scientific evidence and that's what we want right like wanting to get this question of would barely make them seek out a true I was having seen that before that says that if you more intelligence to have more extreme beliefs but the other piece of hope here's the good the good news is that if you make people more curious if you get people more distances truth-seeking mode then people actually get to the white and to to a more true facts and beliefs the more we can see the conservative Republicans for example I don't really believe that I'm global warming is due mostly to human activities such as burning fossil fossil fuel if the more intelligent but estimate curious they do tend to think that and um that we that example everything we release from the New York Times which is you toward it and use opposed to to question on the need to understand what we actually think audible books they don't give you the answer they ask you 1st I'm and he they want you to all of them 2 % of children who attended college based on their income % of their parents and you then you can format and some density not just how the reality looks like but also how other people thought and devote wrote solid that basically and I we let the lot quizzes and games that make you make you been Baker you either have the most true answer and get you the them truth-seeking mode is all
the more the show the complexity of most datavisualization all day I think I would assume power pop charts that to problems of potshots 1st all the data looks the same and 2nd step down only about half the village like parts simplified devote extremely and even make sense datavisualization people as opposed to simplify the vote it's our job to but I do like
approaches like the 1 from Michael that more and more than actually show the complexity of the true for the medium is the message Scholes holidayed actually looks like very complex very entangled planting
doubters although something that I think that is
either too frightened and the nite social stratum did we we well in the articles that explains what the polls for the bonus marks lot for the election Germany at the time I actually showing that is of course due to all the downward at the poles and the US election like planted inside of us but I think it's really necessary and you have time sexually that that 2 months before the US election that planted downwards of showing that for different pollsters came to toward different conclusions and they got the same data this is also connected to showing uncertainty
well like this which is the new york times selection of new set is not showing certainty uncertainty about this on the other
hand is like this ship there we version that you might have remember that from the new times selection which shows the confidence of the balance shows what what we don't know basically but and last 1 I wanna talk about is showing us skin in the game this is long text again from this amazing paper poster and curiosity of political information processing which basically says that if you are still public inflammatory believes in climate change it's very likely that you they know until disbelieved it's important to succeeding as a farmer to to actually get to his goal thank you considered here but I haven't and succeeding as far as it can be satisfied only if that form of information processing I think it's about was that if people have a goal in object involved in the outcome of of the information of the believes to think differently about things so it's
really easy to have these beliefs about like that circadian waterfall at the 2 sex above ovarian has nothing to do with you personal but it's
really really hard to have the same belief refusal only by the outcome so example if it's waiting in the morning it's a really bad idea to have to believe that it's not waiting because the feedback is that you get that from so you you better be have a good will have a good belief here and there but it's not the same like again Pitzer this again a waterfall lots of data visualization is actually
doing a little bit something similar they elect showing the effect of things that happened in the past so that our rules or norms
for example and this graphic by no times that shows if you're receiving a marriage penalty of boulders that it comes to Texas it shows the effect of data out there for you and the same is of course
true for like watering was asked you for example from the BN among most but we being a
wall really seeing the outcome would we like and knowing that you can change something is another level I would say
and I we like predict the most popular technologies to about climate change because 1st of all it shows you that you can use of thing there's a lot of climate change hopelessness and I think in the world
and studies have actually shown that if you if you believe that you can do something personally to help stuff change only then I'll be more likely to make a difference from that looks against the climate and change helplessness there's all these other things I want to
talk about some beliefs come from but so hard to get would of them and how to believe more to things and believe me it not all that is in each block the could be so many more causes and reasons and examples I just wanted to point out the most interesting important ones but what are we doing all of this normalization is inside the leaves are like quota lexical tricky like I don't know should we should have done in more like maybe you should just like try to use of careful full of all the leaves and keep them small and and tiny and not believe too much but I disagree with the idea I would say if you can choose between having small believes and big believe would well 1 big beliefs because beliefs makers act again believe so we important for all actions and I want I want us to act and not to act but if you can't decide between having beliefs which should as a metal on a flexible as a gummy bear what I want a gummy bear strong opinions
the health is of so we we like and strong believe was the health I think is is as important as the something I want to live by because in the best case we can then change our beliefs based on upcoming upcoming and new information very very easy thank you so much
or little or and taking me w