GIS-modelling of long-term consequences after a nuclear accident.

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GIS-modelling of long-term consequences after a nuclear accident.
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In order to evaluate consequences of deposited radioactive cesium (and other radioactive substances) in natural systems a GIS based model called Stratos has been developed. This model incorporates information regarding deposition, transfer to vegetation and animals, intervention levels and geographical distribution of animals. The presentation will use a case study which describes the possible environmental consequences for Norway due to a hypothetical accident at the Sellafield complex in the UK. The scenario considered involves an explosion and fire at the B215 facility resulting in a 1 % release of the total HAL 1 inventory of radioactive waste with a subsequent air transport and deposition in Norway. Air transport modeling is based on real meteorological data from October 2008 with wind direction towards Norway and heavy precipitation. This weather is considered to be quite representative as typical seasonal weather. Based on this weather scenario, the estimated fallout in Norway will be ~17 PBq of cesium-137 which is 7 times higher than fallout after the Chernobyl accident. The modeled radioactive contamination is linked with data on transfer to the food chain and statistics on production and hunting to assess the consequences for foodstuffs. The investigation has been limited to the terrestrial environment, focusing on wild berries, fungi, and animals grazing unimproved pastures (i.e. various types of game, reindeer, sheep and goats). The results of a model-run are maps for the chosen products, with categorized colors - giving the degree of consequences. A linked text file gives relevant numeric values for each color. The Stratos model is written in python which calls GRASS-functions and uses as gui for model setup. The model has been used for two reports at the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, and is currently being used and developed further in the "Centre for Environmental Radioactivity" (CERAD),
Domain name Theory of relativity Texture mapping Mathematical model Open source Nuclear space Nuclear space Open source Term (mathematics) Cartesian coordinate system Computer programming Field (computer science) Derivation (linguistics) Internet forum Integrated development environment Reading (process)
Metre Area Computer font Focus (optics) Matching (graph theory) Graph (mathematics) Multiplication sign Code Bit Data model Causality Personal digital assistant Different (Kate Ryan album) Personal digital assistant Square number
Quadratic equation Presentation of a group Nuclear space Term (mathematics) Thermodynamic equilibrium Endliche Modelltheorie Game theory Data structure Special unitary group Thermodynamic equilibrium Hypothesis
Mapping Range (statistics) Set (mathematics) Data model Population density Population density Energy level output Energy level Game theory Endliche Modelltheorie Figurate number output Position operator
Metre Area Graph (mathematics) Scaling (geometry) Observational study Concentric Normal distribution Variance Maxima and minima Parameter (computer programming) Mereology Special unitary group Measurement Mathematical model Theory Product (business) Type theory Arithmetic mean Personal digital assistant Square number Energy level Normal (geometry) Metropolitan area network Position operator
Area Group action Mapping Heat transfer Product (business) Type theory Population density Internet forum Different (Kate Ryan album) Reduction of order Energy level Energy level Endliche Modelltheorie Game theory Position operator
Presentation of a group Scripting language Code Gradient View (database) Multiplication sign Grass (card game) Parameter (computer programming) Mereology Special unitary group Computer programming Area Usability Different (Kate Ryan album) Endliche Modelltheorie Hill differential equation Position operator Social class Area Scripting language Source code Texture mapping Theory of relativity Mapping Clique-width Data storage device Product (business) Quicksort Reading (process) Resultant Point (geometry) Functional (mathematics) Open source Computer file Maxima and minima Online help Infinity Product (business) Number Goodness of fit Population density IRIS-T Metropolitan area network Compilation album Rule of inference Noise (electronics) Execution unit Distribution (mathematics) Graph (mathematics) Database Color management Incidence algebra Limit (category theory) Grass (card game) Shape (magazine) Mathematics Population density Word Personal digital assistant Universe (mathematics) Gleichverteilung Electronic visual display Pressure
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and we should start it's 4 to have just 1 and my name is Martin and I'm from north of being the 1st topic today and also the chairperson so 1st of all just introduced people talking in the session so this is this session for various applications of Open Source GIS jazz and now and I'll be having no talk about the following of long-term consequences after on nuclear accents and after that we will have on spatial viewing the culture heritage domain by a yacht club from Saxon State and University Library and last will have that mapping end-user which has all the and as From now on there OK so the reading as mentioned my name is Martin I work at the Norwegian derivation protection Authority and has to do some work in that as the center of the and environmental relativity and an online forum the uh so this is this is me when I'm not doing any programming and programming and not in the field that is a must and that's actually from this year and they usually that like 1 week every 2nd year so it's it's quite from getting out of or sometimes she tried to of J so that had none of this steps
1st I'll talk about this scenario the case scenario and also talk a bit about Chernobyl cause that's the reason why we have the reason never have the Institute and we have people working there section and and that the matches that will be happening works or have a focus on this porch and also a bit of time of just shows a musical the it I was somewhat was is made yeah so and it's normal accidents
is that is the largest nuclear accent and we have had Norway was 1 after the other countries which are most effective and 1 of the countries in the world and you can see that victims of various here which is so that in some areas in the middle of nowhere or something um almost reached on men of the graph of megabit but well per square meters whereas those snow ending about heredity reason and who knows what were some of topic railways OK it's about railways long counting per 2nd so Wonderment megabit well it's it's all and per square meters is a lot so it's that's much um and now after 30 years after the Chernobyl accident was still have trouble with that I will and the position and in this areas and we have to do that countermeasures on different kinds of food products especially the reindeers cheap other game and well so will come back to that so that's the an ongoing and
this is the hypothetical scenario Hadlum presentation where somebody asked when when did this happen this has not happened this is a hypothetical scenario and then in know we are and and worried about that this so feel and nuclear plants in New England in the these coast of England it's has a lot of some story about of of the quadratic term waste um then there is a nice thing about if we have a mn big explosion there what will be the consequences for Norway the and this is the the the outputs from around the world made by the Norwegian metrological Institute is the ColorSnap model is a dispersion model for for nuclear accents and also used for well on gear old games and stuff so and the
consequences of the 1st and 1 to 2 years we have lived with gold as short term consequences there really complex and seasonal the payments and I won't go into that because that's the topic of this talk and I don't know much about it here so that's a but after the 1 of the 1 to 2 years and we have a more-or-less equilibrium and we know from experience from the Chernobyl accident and so the that the main consequences was for animals grazing in unimproved past base year and the Mayan uh isotopes our cesium and some structure it the so what do we do
well introducing this status model which will and have figure out the consequences so um we have of the position and we have narrative seen them in the animals grazing noble lands that an improved pastry and mn uh we know that from the experience from the Chernobyl accident so what this animal tries to do is the same what is this food OK to use I will also in more would have included them and we have ranges achieved and the other kinds of games mushroom and we have some various because while there's vendors are also important for human consumption in the this the so
some the start small ways of reasonable and it has for input set of the position tags intervention levels and density maps and I will go through all the 4 of them and so that the 1st of all it's that the position
that you have will seen the this is that from the case scenario it is still valid the part ranges in Norway of course it's always all of the more interesting and I was you that the largest the position in this scenario is the west coast of Norway and and it's marked M 1 and the guy in Norway which we have have a case study of of going into that so this is the position where the dealing with them you see the levels are going up to almost 1 man made of a graph the square meters so it's a Chernobyl have it's emerges general um also the scale is logarithmic of of better only but and if you have
any questions on and I'm very happy about you interrupting some problem so so we got a question just pop up OK so 1st of talk about the text it's it's no it's that I think it's just that the ratio between man and the position the concentration in the needs or the products of the wider wider and the position so it's theories uh and we have a lot of those tags from the Chernobyl accident and lots of measurements for them so we have a lot of this size and based on those tags from experience the Chernobyl accident no home you could they operate and have a very high variance because it's so my name so many parameters and combined and contributing to the thanks so we do like the areas where tags are high and you have areas where things a little and big and variance is very hard to mold while where you find the final text but so that's what we're using 3 different tags in our models we using an expected tag a soft like all data were expected it's that's a and the mean of the normal distribution and we use the minimum norm and a maximum and this is due to say that I we don't think will find a type is lower than among them and we don't think will find out that it's hard and the maximum so this is unimportant part and
then introducing the intervention levels Norway we have different than the types of individuals and they are listed here and but in the winter levels indicate when the dose reduction our actions must be taken so i'm food but also stuff about these in these levels they can be sold in Norway so that now we cannot
have the position which together with the tags we can filter out the areas where and the products go up or unburden dimensional so here we have the various forums in Norway with different kinds of tags soul and using a low and transfer tag we get this red area what what we can say about this red areas that no matter what the true uh the is that the transport from bare soil to and to the most this area all animals will be about the influentials the and mn at Florida and an orange here we expect to find moves about the influentials but it can be some areas where none not and in the high transferring with that we expect not defined uh moves about in the wage levels of certain places where a sensitive areas might find most for the green areas you know would you won't find any news about the intervention also if a hunt using those areas you'll save the and OK and what is the best model yes because the big question always other animals in this red areas the you know that's why we introduce the density maps so as is the this is this is the
map based on a registered hunted news in Norway or am uh made this density maps from all of different kinds of products that goes into the model and see that so that the most most Moussa ease and side of Norway and there's almost no news on the west coast where we have the highest and the position from this hypothetical scenario them OK um yet so I won't go into how made those incidents that so now all I have a look at view of the all you have the
position yeah this aggregated transfected applied you multiply them you see you get the red areas where from the 3 different things get 3 Iris like this where you see where and product goes about the intervention you have the original distribution of their animals so the products and this could be a municipality or grazing area of of some sort and you know we have assumed a uniform distribution that and combining those 2 layers and we can find out how many animals are of all interventions for different products and we also know where these animals are that's the over you so you have a relative and the position guidance dimensional density maps and there are the products the results you have a map for each other each product and you have a text file which gives the and number or a percentage of whatever of so you see for this case the most promise of hills and I'll we only have 1 % of the news and the news in Norway so that's that's the problem and in expected only 3 % and it was and then the maximum area where we don't expect to be there be and I don't expect there to be any man many name loses about the so as 33 % we can also say something about the at time from this what we did not know that in this area you have a problem for a very long time while in then the cocky colored area you know that after watching at 10 20 years there won't be any problem anymore so that's also on this mission it and get out of this so will have actually sometime a so an for doing this I have mainly used cross and part of Python and writing in summer rascals and I also made a used to fight and to make a duty but I'm not showing up here I also use prosperous the a database for storing the tags adapts I don't think that's true necessary not in this In this case the our at this stage so I'm just looking at some code so it's an these as ways to start grass and then in your script in porch and grass like this cross street that's cross on and then you can use the different kinds of flowers and Ross functions and I'm showing up function class biden lights and uh is very from of defining functions and making functions makes Europe cold clear better structured and it is that the re-use um this yet so here abuse that might call of function with as much of a good function to use if you're working madrassas have another so this is a mother and a function I am just to show that I'm using it this rostrum command which is basically you can starch and most of them and the functions in in graphs sold but this is just for wrapping the brass command and this is the function grass and if the parameters so it's ready straightforward and it's easy is discrete and so it's easy from yes thank you for attention the any questions yes yes grass GIS follow someone else should be here and tell about itself and has to go yes and uh to form and and you could say it's like you'd use only it's more like here and I'm going to get knocked in had Russell present is but I think it's a really good and a GIS program so you get low in the maps and you can make maps that it's mostly for doing uh map compilations of map amylases and well you can do almost 17 In and but it's not as if she's about part is not made for a like doing cartography but that that model it with lessons so now it's getting better but you have applied in in that you use for reporting the things you've done in grass so if you want to like make the mice map which on the you've seen my maps it's not that good but you want to import data and and uh matchmaking Ross there is a duties so you can easily get the layers and all that follows the after mating us physically so I suggest which is open Source radiated and very good community I'll have lots of help from other of the grass community they have an e-mail them on answer had quite quickly and that's what I've ever should use it more so um yeah I hope that answered your question the and we have now commercial reactor inlet but they have to learn a scientific here and the reactors in Norway the Deborah A. time is small and and and so if you have a very much uh and as they have a very big storage of uh of relatively we fit rather the reading and the wet looked at other kids to do we looked at Leningrad of you Coppola plants which is a power plants and and we have basically looked at different kinds of and uh scenarios 1 of which was and and Chernobyl-type uh scenario and some other which was a minor accidents and we looked at the consequences after those as well um but celestial and has a lot of pressure the relativity waste because they're during reprocessing of spent fuel and and they also the wind and is going in East what words Norway so if if something happens it's really like you get something to Norway as if and but in Leningrad it's not so often the having now when going in add to them to noise that's that the height has to be a big explosion here forget lifted their waste really high this it's very well this could be discussed the limit its a hypothetical that I want to give will happen once is you want to like make a scenario the scenario won't happen in the next nuclear accent you you wouldn't know what it is if you knew it didn't happen that's my opinion the is like Fukushima nobody have averse like prepare for it and that the next 1 will be similar our it will be a shock like all what did we think a later once enjoyed it won't happen because and you prepare for that see western what about fish yes then we have and a different model for fish so had so it's not included in this small but it's a good point but land and that's not my is it is not working with it's I don't know much about it but I met a guy was working at at his work at the university in Norway and what what did our something it so it's a model so it's yeah you have to different them over different things that some of the problem OK so I am I started working on land you relations so hope to see you next year and then I'll be presenting at some uh as something of the urination and this is the ozone layer over Norway so OK and thank you and the next speaker is
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