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An inventory of the world

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Title An inventory of the world
Subtitle How the climate change agreement changes everything
Title of Series re:publica 2016
Part Number 39
Number of Parts 188
Author West, Johnny
License CC Attribution - ShareAlike 3.0 Germany:
You are free to use, adapt and copy, distribute and transmit the work or content in adapted or unchanged form for any legal purpose as long as the work is attributed to the author in the manner specified by the author or licensor and the work or content is shared also in adapted form only under the conditions of this license.
DOI 10.5446/20642
Publisher re:publica
Release Date 2016
Language English

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Subject Area Computer Science
Abstract Now world leaders have agreed – finally – to do something about climate change with the agreement in Paris at the end of 2015, everything changes in terms of the way we exploit natural resources. To manage that agreement, and quite literally to save the planet, we need an inventory of the world and everything in it – in open data. And, like any open data ecosystem, it will need millions of eyes on it. Why do we need it? What will it look like? What's your role in it? Come and find out!
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I would moons
said to um you here would define themselves as an activist some of you I know are put your hands up so who would define themselves as being in the private sector by the way there's no need for those 2 to be mutually exclusive we would define ourselves as both I anyone here uh are related to the government any government public sector OK um anyone in any way connected in a workflow sense with the way stuff gets dug out of the ground no 1 and k um bit so good you little straw poll at the beginning at the ends and of the brutal not nice and ask you the same 2
questions now at the end um if I say to you we should have an open data framework of um every molecule that might be monetized or consumed on the planet a under some form of CC-licensed that any of us could access at any time the um how many of you would believe that is um this possible choice the the if I every single molecule of everything that would be dug out to the ground that anyone would use anyone would sell by in the entire world available to you have a couple of touches from any device you get a name that How many people think that is imminently let's say network next 1 to 2 years as possible politically no 1 OK and you I how yes there is a gold mine and there is there is a gold gold
or reserve 300 meters and your feet which has precisely these grams of or at this percentage which could be mined out under the following circumstances sold into international markets for 3 and a half billion dollars or not the that my that's a different question we're coming to that nobody thinks is politically possible anybody think it's
technically possible within the next 1 to 2 years old a curious crinkling a quarter OK our so yes thank here's a quick overview as
I am when I'm hoping to get to this in 20 minutes and then we'll have time for questions um natural resources are public goods and will expand that a little bit that's your 1st question overwhelmingly carbon budgets we need to see to put that in place to understand why why we might need such a global repository and to the Paris Agreements I'm going to claim it's not 1 agreement about potentially 10 thousand different agreements and that's very key I then an explanation of what universal Open Data framework looks like and finally consideration of where we are now in this process OK so just to get a 1 thing out of the way all peoples may for their own ends freely dispose of their natural wealth resources in the
UN covenants the basis for international law
so you might think yeah right like the can convention for human rights it would be nice to have and so on and in fact um it turns out that this is the law already within the nation states of the world all almost almost universally the the almost
universally from the exceptions are in fact some of the lender here in Germany have indeterminate ownership and to be decided on a case-by-case basis the online uh and sorry you um onshore United States is the big major exception of a few places in Canada where sovereignty does rest in the states because the 1st peoples have their own sovereignty of some form of British colonial possessions which are essentially the hangover of sugar plantations but you are essentially talking about of well over 90 % class of all major minerals on the ground in public ownership as a legal fact not only do logical statement so that's going to be important and will come back to it so this
is our conception then of of the way these would industries work right now arguably empirically correct perception they go in they build staff they produce they dominate they are all of all all of that's true and we have we've all heard of the resource curse and the impact that these industries have the corrosive corruptive effect that they have in countries with very weak systems of law and civil society that is the reality but the nominal legal reality is a bit
more like this with anyone here familiar with cricket and I'm might cricket not to say these people are servicing the pitch in a lunch break OK you see the ground staff there the evening out the pitch to making sure it's ready for the next play they work fall the cloud the analogy is that the people who owned the ground these would be the companies in a service capacity again the admittedly far from reality today but not far from the stated legal reality this is the current stated legal reality and the world we experience is I divergent from it carbon budget
we need to run through this just a little bit because the question is why would we need such a thing why would we need to understand where every molecule of monetizable wealth under the ground is and why would that need to be available to everybody in the world the Paris Agreements essentially enshrined the concept of a carbon budget and it's worth just running through quickly so the global target which is now being signed up to by the way by 195 heads of state so you could disagree with the science disagree with the policy implementation to try and solve the scientific problem all I imagine there aren't too many clients climate change deniers in the room I am but this is in fact now stated policy as signed by 195 heads of state the target is an average rise of 2 degrees there in global temperatures but the signs that that's based on as says but there is a total carbon budget estimate but which will just call X I don't want to get into the confusing um question of actual calculations but it's x the total carbon budget which will limit climate change to 2 degrees rise but where couriered X minus Y why is all of the mission since the start of the industrial age and those that occur naturally and by by all kinds of natural processes volcano methane releases etc. and so X minus Y is the remaining common budget that still doesn't explain why we we need an open universe and a framework but this the fossil fuel reserves which out registered by companies already proven and this is in a compliance context where there show holders could sue them if they overstated and in fact but some of you may remember that the CEO shall had to resign about a decade ago because did massively overstate the proven reserves these are critical elements of those the market valuation of those companies but as proven reserves already twice the remaining carbon budgets the X minus Y therefore to meet this target only 50 % or less than 50 % of the proof current reserves can be produced before we hit that total seal the rest will be stranded assets us to say or just be left in the ground here's why we need the open data framework whose assets will a base if we talk about a potential 2 to 3 trillion dollars of the evaluated assets fossil fuel assets in the ground and is now a policy signed by 195 heads of state saying only half of them can now be produced the which house it who um so at so yes so in here we get to the Paris Agreement as I said it's not 1 Paris agreement it's many Paris Agreements because it's a floppy internally contradictory um come up in the soup of an agreement which is led and the purest in the environmentalist movement to be torn up about it but you could take another view and say it was what was diplomatically necessary to get to get a process started in the 1st place in any case it sets this figure of 2 degrees but it does not set any top-down mechanism to achieve it there is no world government and the right there is this massive internal inconsistencies because at each country has committed to limit its own future carbon emissions to on a particular quantity if you add all of those are all of those contributions the same scientists that the process is relying on we estimate that those individual country estimates and up to between 2 . 7 and 3 . 7 which really takes us into disaster territory so it's a massive problem and 2 things will happen if the process is going to work a tall and say us refine the planet 1 is that and that process will get tightened up the numbers will get tightened up and have to come down but
but the 2nd is you still got this overall top level framework agreement of 2 degrees among them is is it's not going to be 1 top-down mechanism is going to be any number of regional single-country multi-block combination of government and market bottom up implementations bottom up
agreements and that means every single 1 of them this gonna need Open Data just run through but a couple very quickly the is 1 possible paths agreement and I said to be thousands of there is a distinguished scholar called Paul Collier who argues call 1st most people logical 1st but we think all 1st Australia the United States and Germany why because those are the 3 rich world producers of significant coal industries and the moral imperative the historical imperative and so on but that would only happen in return for phase closure of coal in other countries which haven't yet produce as much the and which relied to a greater degree for their welfare on the skull industries such as Indonesia Brazil China Mozambican endurance so on and
within that calculation um not all coal is equal this going to be some coal that provides more jobs than other called some cold going to go into electricity to power fridges which are far too big and others are going to go into a single light bulb in a shack on the edge of Nairobi all up so that will then be trade offs because governments will be involved as well between whose call gets the most development impact within this category even and then suddenly we need a financial model to start to predicts that because the same call with the same costs could have very different results in terms of jobs or even in fact electricity produced and also carbon emissions within the 3 big categories of all oil uh coal and gas there are significant differences of emissions related to 1 of a kind of fossil fuel to another that's 1 case here's the 2nd 1 I suppose
in the general arguments the gas is generally considered to be the last fossil fuel which will be closed because roughly speaking it is half as intensive in terms of carbon emissions as call
with oil somewhere in between so will be lost but then the compromise is you already have to plan for the close so no new mega projects so the EU for example says it will refuse to accept it's the um purchases within EU countries from mega projects which around the world would be transported to them through something called liquefied natural gas where you freeze it 2 minus 180 degrees and put in huge tankers which are constantly chilled to minus 180 degrees and you carry around the
world to a very limited number of massive industrial facilities so it's very easy to monitor suppose you had a policy like that how would you define a megaproject well parties without over around how much resources in the ground on partly it relates to the production costs why because the market and companies will not choose to develop any of these um massive resources unless they can find global markets which means effectively as they build massive pipelines all energy projects which as we set our monitorable and visible so there's an interplay
there between how much is in the ground and what it costs to get it out out which leads you to needing needing what's called reserves profile but so this is actually an iron all cost curve but you can see the whole point of the whole wide is corruption happen and uh and have billions of dollars disappearing into people's pockets because he can the reason it can is you cell at the same price so if the price of iron ore is 100 dollars the production costs of 1 project could be 20 30 dollars earning 70 dollars profit another 1 which is still producing could be 95 dollars making any 5 dollars profit his dentist monitor all that massive whack of super perfect and bottom that left-hand side of the curve is exactly why the political economy of the Middle East as being what it is but for last 50 or 60 years it's explainable overwhelmingly yes I system little bit yes um uhm authoritarian rule of 1 kind or another but it's mostly in this massive space here which creates the trillions of dollars of of patronage which fuel autocracy is forever and ever and but you actually need to get recognize cost curves
in order to answer the previous question of which gas projects would go ahead and which ones wouldn't said that's the idea of a transparent planet How far are we told that now I'm I'm going to suggest the this won't be the last time you hear this and in the years to come you can answer that question by addressing 2 other questions and
how many will concessions either in the world and all we in 1 now is this room in an oil concession OK does anybody anyone brave enough to guess any answers to either of those questions well I don't blame you the
yeah right I don't blame you because it offers the 1st question I can guarantee you it's not the distant question if you not knowing nothing what by something of nothing I can guarantee you like Socrates that in fact nobody in the world knows the number of oil concessions this is our best attempted um a bit of trumpet blowing them but we have taken a bunch of really crappy J peg maps from the oil ministry websites and we've implemented them into a GIS system so this is open data you can zoom in and see the interaction put other less on and take them off and
so on I am and we've found that data about 110 countries around the world which means in is a 100 missing and clean some big ones like Russian I but that's not the same as saying everybody knows and nobody knows that number and the 2nd question is well it you could potentially find out here if we're in an oil concession not because Germany has relatively good data but in most of the world it would be impossible to find out so our answer then to this
question of is that the
transparency and where we are with it it is a bit like candies answers but to the question what do you think of western civilization and he replied it would be a tremendous idea there's a big movement around
transparency in EIT ID and all Kimberly blood diamonds initiatives and so on but really we are at 1 % of where we need to be I so there's 2 paths that need to go forward but in order to reach this universal open data which in turn is what we will need to implement the Paris Agreement and by the way the same approach is going to happen with minerals as well but not because of climate change but because of other so called planetary boundaries land use water use
biodiversity for a massive global level problems which require transnational management and so you have advocacy here keep going with these initiatives as they exist they've all been invented essentially within the idea that citizens of an individual state need access to information about those resources big fights super slow progress captured by a vested interest in so nevertheless they exist and they achieve some contributions and have global bureaucrats and if you um are used to define yourself can of very straightforward it 1 part of the political spectrum you may not like that only made like that them but here it's incredibly important because what we're talking about is the level
of the need for transnational rule and governance of these natural resources and that means FIL the natural allies in that regardless of the more normal positions at all UN organizations the I'm after World Bank absolutely natural allies help the global
bureaucrats and keep the mega links coming God you would if you do that so we go back to this question of this it is it's um just um politically possible actual are we to streaming here is just David against Goliath let's go back to that normal legal reality in all but an absolute handful of countries and a fraction of the percentage of words resources on the ground or is already public ownership so you have an argument from 1st principles uh to to create this system and that in fact is what all of the national level um transparency movements or about um so so the answer to government to say why should we give people on the other side of the world data already are in fact his country's seed parts of their sovereignty for all kinds of reasons the EU the UN the World Trade Organization so then some quake data artisanal principles cure rate all data already in public domain
and build analysis until that data to get your own data and this is a tool that we built which basically scraped all corporate filings in the world for all extractive industries all the time um flattens out the text from pdf's makes it searchable um which is not to
um overestimate what's in the corporate record of embarrassing revelations kept to a minimum for obvious reasons nevertheless companies tell investors a lot which they choose not to tell the public and that it were able to join up the dots in that circle America's it's 20 16 and we live in Open Data world but there's a lot more of that artisanal work which could be done so are
analyzed on having 1 such history this data it turns out that the terms doubt going and concerned if they occur within 10 words of each other a basically pretty inside the company may be about to go past it's a point at which the fullest for compliance purposes to report that the auditor has
said that there is doubt about them as a going concern so once you've it's a virtuous circle once you've run the search is defined as terms you then run this terms explicitly and you're able in a country like
Zambia for example to identify 400 recent instances of companies they do business with which may be about to get past and I was sitting with the Zambian Finance Minister official last week uh who uh had no idea of these level of resources available but the 3rd and the most important in the long term is collecting own data now are we radioactive and this is the general area of so you see the recent in in this holds the
data this is in the amount of radioactivity with levels that which is created by citizen science project
and it's all over Berlin not quite in this point here but we got better reading we've got a better reading that at least down at the start Mr. they're not radioactive and all of this is open data you can download it from all the time from a practical safe cost which started in reaction to the um earthquake in uh and um meltdown at the nuclear reactor in Fukushima in 2011 the Japanese government was giving out no data so a bunch of geeks this Japan put it together to build their own Geiger counters there or a thousand of them out there and the result is a global map and this is where close to where we stand now and and if you want to join this initiative you can just buy 1 of these off a amazon for 650 box and they will come collect it will collect compliance level data based non-profit initiative is now consultant to fester item by the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna by federal regulators in US and in
Japan all off a thousand pieces of kits like that which are openly Bible and engineer below to compliance level and the ease of collection but this and searching my
son his collected 20 thousand data points by turning that kitten on and walking around with it which is about roughly the same amount of data points to this being published by the Japanese government as about 23 thousand Japanese garment save cost as a whole has coming up to 50 million data points in it so this is the most mature example but the same thing is coming open-source hardware but techniques of analysis in the public space massively saturation collection for all forms of environmental impact including air quality including water and so on so collecting data is the 3rd part the strand the most important in the long run and that's it but now let me ask this question again can be brutal to have thinks that um there is a reason
to try and create universal Open Data framework with all of the resources under the ground then the nice let's get that's good that's half from like they purchase 0 here thinks that is politically feasible and in the coming period on memory that slight increase slight increase that
said if there are any questions I'm happy to take them the few
John think a result of a get rich myself how about this is open all of the yes it's all fine and then the but don't is the use of a little bit too late to
concentrate on shit in this industry because as as it would make it would make much more sense to concentrate resources on on developing the open grid like renewal those etc. guesses for in Germany and like in states or city result consumer they're basically pursuit make and sell their energy in the such a the room and I think it's it's much more feasible to to do this kind of thing know and and the only industry you become just obsolete if we concentrate the right I hope uh this a question of your industry needs to become
obsolete absolutely as fast as possible um the question of whether you think it is either or I guess of the response to the either or is how desperate using the situation it's
um the are in fact but if you is familiar with global feedback loops the possibility of for example the loss of the LP during the Arctic Siberian me
saying that the ice shelves in Greenland and on is new and not talk to Biden about and it it is actually possible other all of this is way too late it's possible but am a horse what to do about that um with within a business-as-usual embarrass agreement is business as usual but
we need it to close down fossil fuels of all kinds as quickly as possible the question is how long there is no sustainable fossil fuel industry but that 90 % of the world's energy still based on fossil fuels and show anyone way which had all of tomorrow and do something else and I'm sure about 10 trillion dollars of investment will follow and so then the question is what is the quickest possible way to do it and what else do we need this isn't are not claiming this is a complete solution to climate change problems yes thank you but so I it was
just serving as well as in a case so if 1 question how hopeful are the United Nations with the scores in the 2nd question we um yeah so if you collect all this data um is there already a lot of data which just needs to be made public the
2nd 1 is known which is the point of are saying nobody in the world quite seriously not as rhetorical statement nobody in the world knows how many will concessions the rock not the I M F not the world bank not any individual government not any trade organization nobody um and the amount of this is we are at 1 % of the information that we need and that part of problem is the activists of focus too much on trying to get the release of information I know already exists because that's what actors do where is in fact that totality of information they represent 5 to 10 % of what we need in its entirety to create this kind of framework I'm sorry I forgot your 1st question that was the 2nd question what was the 1st question
united Nations and mean potentially potentially yes but not not so far these are early days I mean the UN
Environmental Program perhaps UN Development Program absolutely but but let's not overstate even the the reach of these organizations I mean UNDP turns over 3 billion dollars a year it's a significant development agency with a lot more political legitimacy than nation state development agencies but that's about it it's nowhere near having the scale and level of impact on resources to deliver this right now but we're at the beginning of it as the yeah I wanted to know say
them so as to which the 2 degrees agreement and therefore Paris it represented half of the reserve was a proven reserve of it'll cover but if we added
but every country in the early agreed to use it will reach of tool between 2 . 4 and 2 . 6 degrees does represent using also prove on reserve or no sorry as environment that may be
confusing that that is the scientific estimate of the end average rising temperatures if in fact all of the countries fulfill their own individual country-level contributions of reductions in emissions which could happen by any
method at all it's not related to the fossil fuel reserves but if China's does what it says it will in America does what it says it will in Germany and um drama and so on the problem is the huge contradiction within the processes that even that even if they do
what was a very well adds up to between 2 . 7 and 3 . 7 so it's a huge contradiction to the overall stated goal which is only 2 degrees that on here uh thank Simon still I uh what McLean also write about and all climate change and clean tech have a question regarding the base that Bill McKibben than others use the amounts of the odds of civil law as they have a much higher figure uh of proven recoverable reserves that we can't run many attitude so to their false this room and now wasn't is to see that you have a much much lower figure an idea of into you take that Moses secondly as regards of the endgame I'll be interested in how we could use open days there and both in the clean tech sector and also in the remaining fossil fuel sector to sigh about units speed up this destructive price trend that we
already have and as they have seen that the Saudis may will already you know and recognizing that there is a limit as to how much they combined and that's why you know they want gives an artist much as fast as possible and destroying the are all used to impose right and you have the right and the numbers I take those numbers from carbon tracker and they in turn forge for the market because they're trying to influence the market so you actually write on the high side and there are much lower estimates so I should put between 20 and 50 % I think for all affected purposes of demonstrating the principle of middle make a difference but you're right on the numbers and in terms of further use of open data the same principles of Open Data applied to the stuff which is destroying the planet in 1 way or another could also be used to renewable energies but here's an idea openstreetmap has 180 million buildings um as digital objects within its left and there are open algorithms which will give you some trajectory hours of daylight year therefore it's possible to a dozen roughly 20 to 30 % variation based on roof shape so within 20 to 30 per cent margin error you can produce customized building level estimates for how much solar energy somebody can get from that building in that place month by month year by year probably from the 20 thousand dollars for 180 million buildings setting perhaps a billion people on the planet that would be an example of use of open data to increase the destructive force and explosive spread of renewables for example I think there's lots of examples like the 1 what I'm told this is the last question
I got the message of very quickly as in the pension funds already in big trouble because that it they can't take the money out and out too expensive and the pulse other point 2 questions don't you think that you all energies build staff make the old stuff obsolete that there is no real need I did um so as to be taken art yeah I think that would be great they say the real answer is I don't know
when I don't know them to that would be great but number 3 let's be conservative in the original sense that have therefore because we're talking about the survival of human civilization and let's assume that it's not going happen in that needs and convenient way with minimal disruption and therefore carry on with some radical planning a but I think that question evaluations This is a nonlinear change if all of this seems very far away all changes nonlinear we ask sitting in a place um city which 26 years ago nobody could have predicted of a totalitarian regime was going to instantly collapse real
change is nonlinear so your point about the pension funds annual about the Saudis I believe is true I think it's very possible that this 1 trillion dollar floatation is precisely about the Saudis getting some cash from what they know is going to be an overvalued assets because the investor investment is cancer of away very quickly but unfortunately in my world view that still not the same as saying we can guarantee that all can happen on its own and just let let it do its work OK thanks very much I might have some hatch tongue and the
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