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ECB Press Conference - 26 July 2018

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ECB Press Conference - 26 July 2018
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Transcript: English(auto-generated)
Ladies and gentlemen, Vice President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We'll now report on the outcome of today's meeting of the Governing Council.
Based on our regular economic and monetary analysis, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We continue to expect them to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any
case, for as long as necessary, to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below but close to 2% over the medium term. Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, we will continue to make net purchases under the
asset purchase program at the current monthly pace of 30 billion euro until the end of September 2018. We anticipate that after September 2018, subject to incoming data confirming our medium term inflation
outlook, we will reduce the monthly pace of the net asset purchases to 15 billion euro until the end of December 2018, and then end net purchases. We intend to reinvest the principal payments from
maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time after the end of our net asset purchases, and in any case, for as long as necessary, to maintain favorable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary
accommodation. While uncertainties notably related to the global trade environment remain prominent, the information available since our last monetary policy meeting indicates that the euro area economy is proceeding along a solid and
broad-based growth path. The underlying strength of the economy confirms our confidence that the sustained convergence of inflation to our aim will continue in the period ahead and will be maintained even after a gradual winding down of our net asset purchases.
Nevertheless, significant monetary policy stimulus is still needed to support the further buildup of domestic price pressures and headline inflation developments over the medium term. This support will continue to be provided by
the net asset purchases until the end of the year, by the sizable stock of acquired assets and the associated reinvestments, and by our enhanced forward guidance on the key ECB interest rates. In any event, the Governing Council stands ready to
adjust all of its instruments as appropriate to ensure that inflation continues to move towards the Governing Council's inflation aim in a sustained manner. Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis.
Quarterly real GDP growth moderated to 0.4 percent in the first quarter of 2018, following growth of 0.7 percent in the previous three quarters. This easing reflects a pullback from the very
high levels of growth in 2017 and is related mainly to weaker impetus from previously very strong external trade, compounded by an increase in uncertainty and some temporary and supply side
factors at both the domestic and the global level. The latest economic indicators and survey results have stabilized and continue to point to ongoing solid and broad-based economic growth
in line with the June 2018 Euro system staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area. Our monetary policy measures, which have facilitated the deleveraging process, continue to underpin domestic demand.
Private consumption is supported by ongoing employment gains, which in turn partly reflect past labor market reforms and by growing household wealth. Business investment is fostered by the favorable financing conditions, rising
corporate profitability and solid demand. Housing investment remains robust. In addition, the broad-based expansion in global demand is expected to continue, thus providing impetus to euro area exports.
The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook can still be assessed as broadly balanced. Uncertainties related to global factors, notably the threat of protectionism, remain prominent. Moreover, the risk of persistent, heightened
financial market volatility continues to warrant monitoring. Euro area annual HICP inflation increased to 2 percent in June 2018 from 1.9 percent in May,
reflecting mainly higher energy and food price inflation. On the basis of current futures prices for oil, annual rate of headline inflation are likely to hover around the current level for the remainder of the year. While measures of underlying inflation remain
generally muted, they have been increasing from earlier lows. Domestic cost pressures are strengthening and broadening amid high levels of capacity utilization and tightening labor markets.
Uncertainty around the inflation outlook is receding. Looking ahead, underlying inflation is expected to peak up towards the end of the year and thereafter, to increase gradually over the medium term, supported by our monetary policy measures, the continuing economic expansion, the
corresponding absorption of economic slack, and rising wage growth. Turning to the monetary analysis, broad money M3 growth increased to 4.4 percent in June 2018,
up from 4 percent in May. M3 growth continues to benefit from the impact of the ECB's monetary policy measures and the low opportunity cost of holding the most liquid deposits. The narrow monetary aggregate M1 remained the
main contributor to broad money growth. The recovery in the growth of loans to the private sector observed since the beginning of 2014 is proceeding. The annual growth rate of loans to non-financial corporations rose to 4.1 percent in June 2018
after 3.7 percent in the previous month. While the annual growth rate of loans to households remained unchanged at 2.9 percent. The Euro area bank lending survey for the second quarter of 2018 indicates that loan
growth continues to be supported by easing credit standards and increasing demand across all loan categories. The pass-through of the monetary policy measures put in place since June 2014 continues to
significantly support borrowing conditions for firms and households' access to financing, in particular for small and medium-sized enterprises and credit flows across the Euro area. To sum up, a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with a signal
coming from the monetary analysis confirmed that an ample degree of monetary accommodation is still necessary for the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below but close to 2 percent over the medium term.
In order to reap the full benefits from our monetary policy measures, other policy areas must contribute more decisively to raising the longer-term growth potential and reducing vulnerabilities. The implementation of structural reforms in Euro-area countries needs to be substantially
stepped up to increase resilience, reduce structural unemployment, and boost Euro-area productivity and growth potential. Regarding fiscal policies, the ongoing broad-based expansion calls for rebuilding fiscal buffers.
This is particularly important in countries where government debt remains high. All countries would benefit from intensifying efforts towards achieving a more growth-friendly composition of public finances. A full, transparent, and consistent
implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact and of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure over time and across countries remains essential to increase the resilience of the Euro-area economy. Improving the functioning of the economic and monetary union remains a priority.
The Governing Council urges specific and decisive steps to complete the banking union and the capital markets union. And we are now at your disposal for questions. Mr. Kohrani. Thank you, Balazs Kohrani from Reuters.
Mr. Draghi, in the assessment you just presented, did you have a chance to review the agreements struck between the EU Commission President and the U.S. President overnight with regard to trade? And is this assessment only regarding sentiment, regarding protectionism, or are you seeing an
actual impact on growth already materializing? The second question is about, is that did you discuss question? Did you discuss your reinvestment policy today, and if so, could you give us any kind of color about this discussion? What decisions need to be made, and when should we expect a decision on reinvestment policy?
Thank you. Well, on the first question, really, we basically took note of that. We, it's too early to assess the actual content. I understand that today, this afternoon, the Commission is having a meeting exactly to this,
for this reason. So we took note of this meeting, and if one can say sort of something that's kind of general, it's a good sign. It's a good sign because it's, in a sense, it shows that, it shows that there is a willingness to
discuss trade issues in a multilateral framework again, but it would be very, it would be difficult for us to go beyond that because we really don't know the substance of it. No, we didn't discuss the reinvestment policy
today. Mr. Fellas? Thank you. Tom Fellas from the Wall Street Journal. Mr. Draghi, you've suggested that interest rates will stay below zero for the next year or so.
How comfortable are you making those kind of predictions or forecasts so far into the future, given inflation is already above target and you sound relatively confident about the outlook for the economy and inflation? My second question is, so the ECB is holding rates below zero while the Fed is raising rates
quite quickly. I think it plans another two rate hikes this year. That's leading to a divergence between the two central banks, which has also weighed on the Euro in the last few months. Do you think President Trump has a point when he complains about how Europe is weakening its currencies? Thank you. Thank you. On first question, let me stress that our
enhanced for guidance, which is both date-based and state-contingent, conveys the governing council's expectations that key ECB interest rates, as I said in the introductory statement, will remain. We expect them to remain at their present levels
at least through the summer of 2019 and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below but close to 2% over the medium term. Now, this enhanced for guidance being very effective, as broadly reflected in surveys,
market commentary, and market prices in aligned expectations of the future rate path with the anticipations of the governing council. So at this stage, we don't see the need to modify or to add new language to our forward
guidance on rates. Now, on the second question, different monetary policies do reflect the response of monetary authorities to different positions in the business cycle. We said several times that the exchange rate is
not a policy target, that it's important for growth and price stability, and there is an international consensus that's been going on now for years, for decades perhaps, about abstaining from competitive devaluations of sorts. So that's the answer.
Incidentally, if one looks at a nominal effective exchange rate of the euro vis-a-vis all the partners, all the trading partners, as a matter of fact, the euro is appreciated considerably over the last year, year and a half. Thank you. Mr. Skolimovsky.
Mr. President, I have a question again about the impact of protectionism. You obviously mentioned that you take note of the agreement, but also in your accounts of the last meeting, you said that the impact on inflation from potential protectionist measures
could be as ambiguous and certain. Have you took like a deeper look into it, and maybe you have already answers of a potential impact from those effects. And my second question, I know that you mentioned you didn't discuss reinvestment policies, but could you give us a broad outline on sort of
your red lines where reinvestment policies won't change in the second phase when the net asset purchases are over? Thank you. Thank you. On protectionism, no, we haven't done any further analysis than I have outlined last time.
And the reason is that we basically have to see exactly what's going to be implemented. We've seen and we have analyzed the implemented, the effects of implemented tariffs. And we, as I said last time, the direct effects are limited. But clearly, the trade war where you have around
thousands of retaliation and rounds of responses would create an entirely different climate. And we would have to assess both the direct effects, which may be significant as the numbers significantly go up, and the indirect
effects of confidence on especially on business investment. And that is what we haven't done anything different from last time yet. So, we'll have to assess in the future. Now, on the reinvestment, we haven't discussed
it, but silly, just to make it clear, the capital key remains our anchor in what we do on reinvestments. Just to clear this late from any doubt. That's it. Thank you.
I have two questions as well. One on your economic optimism for the Eurozone, because looking at recent also confidence indicators, there is a clear sign that the looming trade uncertainties have an
impact already now, and also looking at the current earnings seasons. So, what makes you still so optimistic? Second question would be on whether they're given the already, the inflation rate being back at your target, whether there's an
increasing sort of discussion inside the governing council among the members, of course. That is perhaps, yeah, time to even decrease the monetary stimulus in place. Thank you. Let me just, I think the best way to answer both questions is to give you a short account of
what's been our discussion today. Well, first of all, the governing council took stance, took note that there hasn't been much of a change since last time. Has not been a change in the assessment of the outlook, of the medium term outlook for growth or inflation, nor in a change in the monetary
policy message. But the first point is that it's now clearer than it was before, that the moderation in growth, and here I'm addressing your first question, depends essentially on the pullback from the
unusually strong growth rates that we've seen in the first, the last three quarters last year, which were caused by, predominantly by an unusually strong export performance. And so now there's a pullback and the export
performance is much less strong than it was before. Some sluggishness in the first quarter is continuing in the second quarter, but I would say almost all indicators have now stabilized at
levels that are above historical averages. So the overall, the race to growth have been assessed as still broadly balanced.
Financing conditions remain stable and labor market continues to improve, thereby supporting private consumption. Also, the accommodative monetary policy and the resulting financing conditions do support private investment, as we can see from the figures.
Now, on inflation, and here I'm coming to the other point of your question, it's true the headline inflation is now 2 percent from 1.9, but if you look at the inflation, so the next question that you ask, one should ask is, is this going to be sustained?
And the answer is that if we look at inflation excluding oil and food, it's now 0.9 from 1.1 last time. And the underlying inflation remains muted. So we see encouraging sign here and there. It's very early to call victory.
Now, one positive element is the nominal wage performance, where you remember we've seen a big pickup in nominal wage growth across the Eurozone, but until recently this pickup was mostly produced by wage drift, while now we are
seeing that there is a component, which is the negotiated wage component, which is now, right now, the main driver of the growth in nominal wages. So the conclusion was that the assessment of confidence that we expressed in Riga about
convergence of inflation to our objective is still warranted, but an ample degree of monetary accommodation remains necessary, and therefore we've got to be prudence, patience, and persistence are still going to be the keywords that inform, inspire our monetary policy.
Ms. Jones? Mr. Draghi, two questions, if I may. First, just to touch on the point that you made about wages being a lot stronger than people maybe would have thought at the start of the year
and you seem better negotiated pay deals. I'd like your view on how you think this will impact domestic demand. Is it going to have an impact on domestic demand that's strong enough to offset the negative effects that we've seen of weaker trade figures, or would you still expect to see some slowdown in
growth in the second half of this year? And secondly, some people have said there's a little bit too much ambiguity about the phrase through the summer, and the changes to some of the translations of the monetary policy statement have raised these issues again. So would you care to clarify just what is
meant by through the summer? Is it at least until the end of the summer when rates are expected to remain on hold until, or is it at least until the summer of next year? Thank you. Thank you. First of all, I'll address first the second question. First of all, let me clear that the only version that conveys the policy message is the
English version. And we conduct our governing council in English and agree on an English text. So that's what we have to look at. Now, as you've seen, the term structure of money
market rates reflects two things. Reflects the pure expectations of the future path of the policy rates, but reflects also the uncertainty that surrounds the evolution of the economy. So as far as, as I think I said last time, as far
as pure expectations are concerned, they are very well aligned with the anticipation of the governing council that policy rates will remain at their current levels through the summer of next year.
But surveys of market views and surveys of market views confirm this very tight alignment. Then you have the uncertainty component in the term structure. This, of course, the tends to be more variable and shifts with risk perceptions. And what we see is that this component now may
have increased since our June announcement due to various factors, including the state of the debate on trade. So now let me, let me now address the first part of the question about whether we can see a, an impact coming from higher nominal wage growth that
could compensate trade. We do, I mean, frankly, we haven't done this analysis yet, but we do see growth rates stabilizing at this level, which is actually pretty good for the Eurozone after this unusual performance in, in, in exports.
So we do expect the second part of this year to continue being on, on solid growth, growth based across sectors and across countries. Mr. Lesmeister.
Mr. Lesmeister from CTF. Mr. Twage, one question about the target two system. How do you rate the risk in this system, especially for the bonus bank and also in compared to the national bank, Italian national bank, for example? Now, first of all, let me make a general point. Well, target two is a payment system.
As such, it doesn't generate instability. It's the way in which a monetary union settles its payments and it's devised to make sure the money flows unencumbered across countries, individual sectors, companies, all economic
agents. So that's the first thing that we should always keep in mind. The, the second thing is how do we interpret recent numbers? We show an increased number of target liabilities of certain countries. Well, this again is a question that was asked
several times in the past. Most of the movement in target two liabilities depends on our own asset purchase program and depends on how and where, especially where, the balances of the purchases of bonds are settled.
About 50 percent of the institutions, at least this was a number until a few months ago, but I think it's still valid, 50 percent of the institutions that sell bonds to the national central banks are not in the euro area and settle their account with one or two core
countries where the financial centers reside. So in this sense, you see that the accounting and settlement of the balances do depend on where the settlement is made. It has nothing to do with capital flows from one country or another.
This is by, and just keep in mind that 80 percent of the institutions that sell banks, namely, that sell bonds to the national central banks, do not reside in the country where the national, with the purchaser, national central bank resides. So you have a lot of intra-country payments
and flows that, that do not say anything very specific about the overall situation. But going back to the recent movements in the liabilities of certain countries, you see that first of all, they are, they are not unprecedented. It's not the first time.
We've seen, we've seen movements as large or even larger in the past, but second, as a consequence of what Jeff said, they are of second order with respect to the massive movements produced by our own purchase program. So the bottom line is the system is, works very
well, the ones, the people who want to cap it, collateralize, limit, I mean the truth is that they don't like the euro. They don't like the monetary union because the only way a monetary union can work is if they have an efficient payment system, which is what Droga 2 is.
And, and I think it's just too early to understand exactly what part of the trade, of the liabilities do reflect political uncertainty. Thank you. Mr. Plickert? Mr. Draghi, you mentioned the capital key as an anchor for the reinvestment purchases.
There will be a revision of the capital key. I think next year it's due. And you can easily compute something like those countries which have had more growth in the past, they will have bigger share of the capital than in the future. What implications would this have for the
reinvestments or would this affect the reinvestments of bonds then? I'm sorry, we haven't discussed that at all. So I can't answer this question now. We actually haven't discussed anything about reinvestment policy. But you can have another question if you want.
Mr. Draghi? President Draghi, we have today the anniversary of the whatever it takes of six years ago. So would you say that since then the governing
council members all agree that we have, that ECB has new tools in its toolbox and amongst these the TLTROs, but QE, and also OMTs and negative interest rates. And my second question is linked to negative
interest rates because I don't want you to go too much into forward guidance, but there is also another anniversary now which is the last increase of interest rates. Have we been staying many years in negative interest rates world? And even if interest rates are going to go up next summer at the end of it or in autumn, are we
going to have still years of negative interest rates before we get back to a positive rate? Thank you. Thank you. Frankly, I had not realized all these anniversaries myself. When I read about some market commentaries
recalling that this is the anniversary of this, and now you're telling me about this other anniversary. I kind of was surprised. But then I asked myself, what does it show? I think it shows that these are very distant times and especially the anniversary from the 2012
speech tells that basically today the euro is, they look so distant because the euro is now on much stronger foundations than it was then at that time.
I think that's very much due to the fact, to the important reforms that have been undertaken by our governments in terms of completing, though there is still a road to go, in completing and
strengthening our monetary union and by structural reforms undertaken by national governments. In the introductory statement, I said that they have to be decisively stepped up. That's true. But this has the danger of making us forget how much has been done already in this field.
So, but it's true. It's true. The ECB now is a different central bank. It's true what you said. It has a very different and much, much richer set of monetary policy tools. And so that is really important.
But the key, the real reason for the governing council to be proud is that it has delivered price stability. It has delivered price stability in the most difficult circumstances through all these years.
And I'll stay, I'll stop here because I speak too much about these anniversaries. Thank you. Mr. Hyten. Luke Hyten, Market News International.
Mr. Draghi, the ECB has cut Greece ELA to around 8 billion euros. I'm sorry, I can't hear you. Sorry, can you hear me now? Yeah. Sorry. The ECB has cut Greece ELA to around 8 billion euros. Do you think Greece is now closer to a full reintegration into the ECB's programs? And my second question- It's close to? Sorry? Full reintegration into the ECB's programs.
Sorry. And my second question was will the presidency succession debate and planning be unduly influenced by expectations of a rate hike somewhere around the time of your departure?
The answer about Greece is when we take note and actually we welcome the successful action by the great government undertaken so far and we are looking forward to a successful completion of the program.
We discussed this issue of- I take your words for reincession, reintroduction of Greece in the programs whether Greece can be part of QE or that's- well, here Greece needs- right now Greek paper, Greek government bonds are not eligible for QE so they need a waiver.
The waiver was there until the program was in place. After the program expires, the waiver expires. And that's what it is right now. So the other point is kind of strange. Why should rate hikes be influenced? I mean, maybe in the mines, in the perverse
mines of some market players, this may be true, but certainly not in the Governing Council members' minds. Thank you. Mr. Di Vittorio? Thank you. Mr. Tragi, you risk becoming the first
governor in the history of a central bank worldwide that the two have never raised interest rate. This is wild or conjunct. The second question is why is it important that the two have a second question? I'm sorry, why? It presses wild or will or conjunct. And the second question.
We have fought against the deflation and recession with an unconventional monetary policy. Why do we have to fight this inflation by all price with the conventional monetary policy? I think both questions are answered saying that we
live through an extraordinary time in the aftermath of a great financial crisis which in many countries actually took the shape of a great depression as severe if for certain aspects even more severe than the Great Depression itself.
And therefore, the proper monetary policy response was the one that was decided by the Governing Council throughout these years. I think both questions can be answered in this way. The extraordinary historical circumstances produced a pretty exceptional monetary
policy response. Mr. Schreier? Thank you. My first one is also on reinvestments. You stressed several times that you didn't discuss it today. In June, you said that you have to decide on
that in the next couple of months. And I guess you would subscribe to the fact that it's a very important point. So why didn't you discuss it today? Is the Governing Council not wasting time when it comes to deciding on reinvestments? And related to that, very general, should we see reinvestment as a pure technical process or
is it something that could also be used to give an additional monetary impulse? And the second one is on the future of your monetary policy. The account of the June meeting said that the forward guidance would be the tool of choice for
adjusting the monetary policy stance in the future. Does that mean if the outlook worsens, especially on inflation, the preferred option would be to change the forward guidance on weights instead of changing the QE outlook, meaning extending QE again? Thank you. Thank you. I'll answer the second question because the first
question has a quick answer. We haven't discussed it, and we haven't discussed it even when to discuss it. But the second question is, as you've seen, as I've stressed in the last RIGA Monetary Policy
Council, all the statement, introductory statement, all the formulation of all the monetary policy tools contain a repeated optionality and flexibility, putting the governing council in an ideal position to react
to events. Some of these events are part of a foreseeable future based on the current set of information. Some other events may well not be foreseeable at the present time, but we don't want to exclude the possibility that they may happen.
And that's why we retain a high degree of optionality. Thank you. I'm looking around. I think it's time maybe for the summer break then. No further questions?
Then we close the press conference. Just a moment. Let me do, let me say something that I should have said at the very beginning. We are actually witnessing a drama of, a tragic drama of spectacular proportions in Greece. Just want to express the solidarity and the
closeness of the governing council members to the Greek people on this occasion. Thank you.