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Restoration at scale: Evaluating the progress of global restoration efforts using high spatial resolution time-series information of vegetation traits and indices

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Restoration at scale: Evaluating the progress of global restoration efforts using high spatial resolution time-series information of vegetation traits and indices
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21
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31
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CC Attribution 3.0 Germany:
You are free to use, adapt and copy, distribute and transmit the work or content in adapted or unchanged form for any legal purpose as long as the work is attributed to the author in the manner specified by the author or licensor.
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Production PlaceDoorwerth

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Abstract
To support climate-resilient forest planning across Europe, we are developing high-resolution suitability maps for 50 common tree species under future climate scenarios. The approach builds on a harmonized presence–absence dataset derived from over 270,000 National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots from 11 countries, complemented with publicly available records to ensure broad spatial coverage. Species–climate relationships are modeled using a suite of machine learning algorithms trained on historical climatologies and projected using bias-corrected outputs from five GCM–RCM chains within the EUR-11 domain, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The modeling pipeline is designed to produce decadal projections at 1 km spatial resolution, allowing fine-scale exploration of ecological suitability from 2030 to 2100. To enhance predictive robustness, multiple algorithms are combined through ensemble methods, including stacking, using a limited set of ecologically relevant predictors. This work complements existing efforts in species distribution modeling by integrating high spatial and temporal granularity with a multi-model climate ensemble and a harmonized pan-European observational dataset. The resulting maps will be integrated into the EU reforestation planner tool, supporting long-term, spatially explicit strategies for tree species selection under changing climatic conditions.