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Scenario Choice Impacts Carbon Allocation Projection at Global Warming Levels

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Scenario Choice Impacts Carbon Allocation Projection at Global Warming Levels
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CC Attribution 3.0 Germany:
You are free to use, adapt and copy, distribute and transmit the work or content in adapted or unchanged form for any legal purpose as long as the work is attributed to the author in the manner specified by the author or licensor.
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Production Year2023
Production PlacePlymouth

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Abstract
We investigated the flux of carbon from the atmosphere into the land surface and the ocean for multiple models and over a range of future scenarios. We did this by comparing simulations after the same amount of change in the global mean near surface temperature. Using this method, we show that the choice of scenario can impact carbon allocation. The differences between scenarios at a given warming level is equivalent to several years' worth of current global total emissions. Scenarios with higher emissions reach the same warming levels sooner, but also with relatively more carbon in the atmosphere.
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