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Session 1: The first 20 years of EMU

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Session 1: The first 20 years of EMU
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12
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CC Attribution 3.0 Unported:
You are free to use, adapt and copy, distribute and transmit the work or content in adapted or unchanged form for any legal purpose as long as the work is attributed to the author in the manner specified by the author or licensor.
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Production PlaceSintra, Portugal

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Twenty Years of Convergence by Jean Imbs and Laurent Pauwels: Real convergence in the Economic and Monetary Union is manifest over the past 20 years: the growth rates in GDP and consumption have converged significantly, reaching by some measures higher levels of similarity than US States. To explain convergence in GDP, we introduce a measure of bilateral export intensity, based on input-output linkages at sector level. The measure is distinct from directly observed trade and is available for 50 sectors, including services. It takes exceptionally high values in EMU member countries, much higher than the US or China. Pairs of sectors with high export intensity are significantly more correlated, which explains aggregate convergence in GDP. Convergence in consumption, in turn, is by some measure more complete in the EMU than between US States. We show this can be ascribed to financial integration in the monetary union.