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Numerical simulations of the spread of floating passive tracer released at the Old Harry prospect

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Numerical simulations of the spread of floating passive tracer released at the Old Harry prospect
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16
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CC Attribution 3.0 Unported:
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The Gulf of St Lawrence is under immediate pressure for oil and gas exploration, particularly at the Old Harry prospect. A synthesis of the regulatory process that has taken place over the last few years indicates that important societal decisions soon to be made by various ministries and environmental groups are going to be based on numerous disagreements between the private sector and government agencies. The review also shows that the regulatory process has taken place with a complete lack of independent oceanographic research. Yet, the Gulf of St Lawrence is a complex environment that has never been specifically studied for oil and gas exploitation. Motivated by this knowledge gap, preliminary numerical experiments are carried out where the spreading of a passive floating tracer released at Old Harry is examined. Results indicate that the tracer released at Old Harry may follow preferentially two main paths. The first path is northward along the French Shore of Newfoundland, and the second path is along the main axis of the Laurentian Channel. The most probable coastlines to be touched by water flowing through Old Harry are Cape Breton and the southern portion of the French Shore, especially Cape Anguille and the Port au Port Peninsula. The Magdalen Islands are less susceptible to being affected than those regions but the probability is not negligible. These preliminary results provide guidance for future more in-depth and complete multidisciplinary studies from which informed decision-making scenarios could eventually be made regarding the exploration and development of oil and gas at the Old Harry prospect in particular and, more generally, in the Gulf of St Lawrence.
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Transcript: English(auto-generated)
The Gulf of St. Lawrence is a semi-enclosed sea located in eastern Canada. It is about three times smaller than the North Sea and seven times smaller than the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf receives a very large amount of fresh water from the Great Lakes Drainage Basin and the Canadian Shield.
Its deep water is composed of an approximately equal mix of arctic and tropical waters. The climate of the subarctic sea exhibits very large seasonal temperature changes with frigid winters that produce extensive sea ice and warm summers that favor large phytoplankton blooms. This singular coastal environment supports a unique and diverse mix of estuarine and marine species
characteristics of both tropical and arctic conditions. The Gulf of St. Lawrence potentially holds large amounts of oil and gas. The most promising prospect is Old Harry, located at a depth of about 460 meters in the Laurentian Channel and at less than 100 kilometers from the surrounding coastlines. The oil company Corridor Resources holds the rights to this prospect
and plans to undertake exploratory drilling by the end of 2014. According to the environmental assessment tabled by Corridor, the risks associated with the exploratory drilling are minimal. Corridor argues that under conceivable worst-case scenarios of surface spillage, the affected area would be limited to 20 by 40 kilometers,
beyond which oil will be sufficiently diluted or evaporated and no longer have any noticeable impact on the ecosystem or surrounding coastlines. However, this study has been severely criticized during the revision process by various governmental instances and environmental groups. Concerns were raised regarding the underlying assumptions made
and the credibility of the oil spill risk assessment presented. Despite these criticisms, Corridor maintained that this well can be safely drilled. We noted that this regulatory process has taken place without independent oceanographic research. Yet, the Gulf of St. Lawrence has never been specifically studied for oil and gas exploitation.
Assessing the environmental impacts of oil spills in the Gulf of St. Lawrence is an outstanding problem because it involves a series of physical and biogeochemical processes that are not fundamentally well understood. Here, we approach the problem from a much simpler perspective. Rather than attempting to realistically simulate oil dispersion processes and all their complexity,
the strategy adopted is to examine only the horizontal spreading of passive floating tracer released at Old Harry. This means that there is no possible decay from or interaction with biological, chemical, or physical processes. In other words, this is equivalent to examining how a floating food color would spread if released at the Old Harry site.
This is a step we feel necessary to accomplish before proceeding with more complex biogeochemical simulations of oil and contaminant dispersion. We have carried out a number of simulations for year 2012 using hourly modeled surface currents produced by Fisheries and Oceans Canada and available from the St. Lawrence Global Observatory portal.
The following animations show a few examples of what the spreading patterns may look like. Three dye release scenarios were performed. In the first scenario, green dye is released for only one day. In the second scenario, yellow dye is released for 10 days. Finally, in the third scenario, red dye is released for 100 days.
In each of these scenarios, the evolution of the patch of dye is monitored for 30 days after the end of the release period. Statistical maps such as this one are provided that synthesize the main results. For example, this map indicates how many days it would typically take for water transiting over Old Harry to reach surrounding areas and coastlines.
These results, although preliminary, provide guidance for future, more in-depth studies from which informed decision -making scenarios could be made regarding oil and gas exploration in the Gulf of St. Lawrence.