Extreme hydrological changes in the southwestern US drive reductions in water supply to Southern California by mid century

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Video in TIB AV-Portal: Extreme hydrological changes in the southwestern US drive reductions in water supply to Southern California by mid century

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Extreme hydrological changes in the southwestern US drive reductions in water supply to Southern California by mid century
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CC Attribution 3.0 Unported:
You are free to use, adapt and copy, distribute and transmit the work or content in adapted or unchanged form for any legal purpose as long as the work is attributed to the author in the manner specified by the author or licensor.
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2016
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English

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Abstract
The Southwestern United States has a greater vulnerability to climate change impacts on water security due to a reliance on snowmelt driven imported water. The State of California, which is the most populous and agriculturally productive in the United States, depends on an extensive artificial water storage and conveyance system primarily for irrigated agriculture, municipal and industrial supply and hydropower generation. Here we take an integrative high-resolution ensemble modeling approach to examine near term climate change impacts on all imported and local sources of water supply to Southern California. While annual precipitation is projected to remain the same or slightly increase, rising temperatures result in a shift towards more rainfall, reduced cold season snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Associated with these hydrological changes are substantial increases in the frequency and the intensity of both drier conditions and flooding events. The 50 year extreme daily maximum precipitation and runoff events are 1.5–6 times more likely to occur depending on the water supply basin. Simultaneously, a clear deficit in total annual runoff over mountainous snow generating regions like the Sierra Nevada is projected. On one hand, the greater probability of drought decreases imported water supply availability. On the other hand, earlier snowmelt and significantly stronger winter precipitation events pose increased flood risk requiring water releases from control reservoirs, which may potentially decrease water availability outside of the wet season. Lack of timely local water resource expansion coupled with projected climate changes and population increases may leave the area in extended periods of shortages.
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southern California is located in some area region with limited local water supplies as a result 60 to 70 per cent of the water supplies originates from imported water from snowmelt in this year and not in Rocky Mount California is the most populous
in agricultural productive state in the United States and its developed an extensive reliance
on an imported water supply and conveyance system so is primarily
controlled by temperature and precipitation and as a result the southwest and specifically southern
California as much more portable to climate change
impacts in a joint study by loyola Marymount
University in southern California and the Climate Change Science Institute at Oakridge National Lab we find that changes to extreme hydrologic events to the water cycle in the southwest United States can cause further water in 1 of the most computationally expensive
regional climate modeling efforts in the United States to use a large number of very high resolution logical simulations computed
on Titan fastest supercomputer in the United
States here at Oakridge National up Our
results show that by 2050 the projecting additional 2 degrees celsius temperature change in the southwest 9 states with the strongest forming occurring over the mountains regions warmer
temperatures reduce the fraction of precipitation falling as snow is reducing
snowpack and shifting snowmelt timing
California's climb is highly variable year-to year so well we don't projects significant changes in mean average annual run off or precipitation we need to look at changes to
extreme events specifically the wet and dry years to provide a full assessment of water supply security to do this we
calculate the total maximum minimum runoff in the region representing wet and dry years overall we see an increase in the number of life in dry years with the exception of
the sea and I were drawing occurs even
during my years declining water supply we also evaluate the occurrence of daily
flood events in this year Nevada we project flooding to occur 1 comma decimal 6 times more frequently by 2050 and 6 times more frequently in the car at a recent historically reservoir levels are kept
low in the southwest United States during the winter months to prevent flooding in the spring with warmer temperatures snowpack slowly melts filling up the reservoirs during the summer and fall months demand begins to increase in water is released to the rise of orders for agricultural and urban users
under a changing climate the coupling of more precipitation falling as rain as well as increasing extreme flood events causes reservoirs to fill help earlier in the year this could pose an extreme flood risk that region as a result of water must be release from these reservoir waters causing a decline in water storage and water availability in the summer months for those urban agriculture liters of water this is already happening in
California's currently it's the most severe drought in
recorded history early 2016
storms coupled with warmer temperatures led to higher amounts of runoff causing the reservoirs to fill earlier in the
year as a result reservoir water had to be
released despite being in 1 of the worst droughts to logical changes are not the only
components causing additional water stress
populations are expected to increase upwards of 30 per cent by 2050 increasing
water demand in the region the expansion of local water supplies is an obvious solution to
mitigate these climate change impacts however current limitations exist to these expansion efforts including the substantial energy requirements for desalination and public version of using highly treated respect water near future projected increases in
both intensity and frequency of white contrivance pose significant challenges to water supply security in the southwest United States this warrants immediate action to begin
adopting the climate change
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